The decisive phase. What to wait from Putin after hitting the air base in the occupied Crimea

Traffic jams were reported on the roads leading to the Crimean Bridge, as Russian vacationers tried to leave, interrupting their vacation. The exact nature of the probable Ukrainian attack is still unclear. The Washington Post quoted unnamed Ukrainian officials who consider it a special forces operation. Other international media have confirmed the responsibility of Ukraine, but did not provide specific details.

In the first hours after the explosions, military analysts mostly argued whether the losses were caused by rockets, air strikes, or unmanned battles. Since then, satellite images have shown large -scale destruction at this point. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky did not confirm the involvement of the Ukrainian military. However, obviously hinting at the attack on the air base, he noted that Russia's war against Ukraine began with the occupation of Crimea and ending its liberation.

Moscow's reaction to the attack on the air base was a characteristic objection. Instead of accusing Ukraine, Russian officials tried to diminish the importance of the incident and instead insisted that multiple explosions were caused by accidental detonation of aviation ammunition.

This doubtful statement is fully consistent with a number of the same implausible justifications represented by Russia in the last six months, when the Kremlin has tried to explain a series of such annoying failures in the invasion of Ukraine that has burned.

Moscow's absurd excitement started at the end of March, when Kremlin officials tried to submit Russia's retreat from north of Ukraine as a gesture of goodwill, despite the fact that it happened immediately after the defeat of the country in the battle for Kyiv. At the end of June, Russia again applied the same terminology. goodwill gesture to describe the same shameful retreat of the Russians from the snake.

Not surprisingly, the whole concept of Russian "gestures of goodwill" has now become a fertile basis for memes on social networks, since Ukrainians make fun of a phase alternative reality created by Kremlin propaganda. When Ukraine drove the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the first months of the war, the Kremlin quickly proposed an excuse to save reputation. Moscow sank in the Black Sea on April 14, after reporting, she hit two Ukrainian anti -ship missiles.

However, according to Russia's version of events, Putin's flagship actually sank while towing in a violent sea due to accidental fire on board. This unconvincing explanation caused astonishment, not least because in the weather little indicated the restless sea during flooding. Moscow's justification was sometimes balanced on the verge of surrealism.

Obviously, trying to explain why the praised Russian army was still unable to overcome Ukrainian resistance, members of the Russian Parliamentary Commission stated in mid-July that Ukraine was using mutant soldiers whom American scientists have turned into superhuman machines for murder.

Co -chairman of the commission and the current Russian deputies Konstantin Kosachev and Irina Yarov, as quoted by the Russian newspaper Kommersant claim that they have found evidence that Ukrainian servicemen are turning into "deadly monsters" in laboratories under US control. Of course, Russia's unwillingness to publicly recognize Ukraine's success on the battlefield can hardly be called unprecedented.

Deception has always played a key role in armed conflicts, and Moscow has long been known as an innovator in the field of information war. Russia also has a number of very good military reasons to diminish its failures in Ukraine.

Any public recognition of the ability of the Ukrainian military to strike for particularly important purposes in the depths of the Kremlin-controlled territory would confirm the inefficiency of Russian air defense systems and even more undermine the fighting spirit in the force of invasion, which already suffer from demoralization due to high losses.

However, there is something obsessive in Vladimir Putin's clear readiness to use even the most pretty misinformation instead of recognizing Ukrainian victories. The Russian dictator has repeatedly preferred to portray his troops incompetent and provoked mockery of meaningless stories about the voluntary withdrawal of troops, instead of recognizing the humiliating truth about defeat at the hands of a country that, as he insists, does not exist.

As its invasion approaches the six -year mark, Putin quickly ends with excuses. The initial expectations of the rapid and victorious war have long gave way to the reality of a cruel conflict against a decisive and capable opponent, supported by the power of the democratic world. Despite the deployment of a large part of the accessible living power of the Russian Armed Forces, his army has virtually stopped, paying a terrible price for both people and machines.

These ineffective actions were devastating to the encroachment of Moscow on the title of superpowers. In fact, it is safe to say that anyone who still calls Russia the number two in the world is almost certainly doing so with sarcasm. The impact of this disaster of military prestige is already evident on the old imperial dowry of Moscow.

Kazakhstan is now in the open confrontation with the Kremlin, and Azerbaijan is no longer felt by the tight presence of Russian peacekeepers in the South Caucasus. Tiny Lithuania recently challenged Russia because of the transit of goods to Kaliningrad, while even devoted to Belarus successfully successfully resisted the Kremlin's intense pressure, which tried to force it to join the invasion of Ukraine.

If Russia is unable to change its military success in Ukraine, these negative trends will only intensify. More and more countries will lose fear of the toothless Russian bear, and potential allies will begin to doubt the values ​​of such compromised in geopolitical and military plan. Russia, which has already resigned with a long isolation period from the Western world, may be more and more excommunicated from Olympus world politics and a minor role in its unequal partnership with China.

Putin's risky difficulty means that we can now face one of the most dangerous periods in modern European history, since the Russian-Ukrainian war is a potentially decisive phase. In the coming months, everything should be expected: from desperate offensive and escalation of terror tactics to shutdown of energy supply and nuclear blackmail.