The collapse of Russia into parts. Who and what can collapse the aggressor country and what new risks will arise for the world and Ukraine

After Russia suffered significant losses due to its aggression, its economy suffers from unprecedented sanctions, and the population is now scared of mobilization, and therefore dissatisfied with the authorities, thoughts on the possible collapse of the Russian Federation on individual entities are increasingly sounded.

Video of the day is spoken by both domestic and Western experts, including the US Estamer in Europe in Europe, General Ben Gogess, who called on the world to be ready for the collapse of Russia. Dictator Vladimir Putin also assumes what this can happen. “If the Soviet Union was able to split in 1991, and Russia itself has come now.

It should break into a large number of deadly regions and regions, ”Russia predicted the future of Russia in the event of a recent statement of reservists mobilization in a recent statement in a recent statement. On the topical topic, he spoke with Anton Murayna, the head of the analytical department of the competent assistance fund of the army, which conducts a closed research on the future transformation of Russia. - Tell us about your research devoted to the topic of Russia's disintegration.

How long have you been exploring this topic and what conclusions have you come to? - First of all, I want to warn that for safety, we cannot disclose some details of the study. Its full version will be closed, and the results are given to the stakeholders [interested parties] - Ukrainian statements and organizations and possibly partially international partners. If in two words, then the working name of this study: transformation of Russian statehood. We started working on it in July-August 2021.

The fact is that in the view of our experts, Ukraine did not make full -scale counteraction to the Russian Federation. So we decided to think about what we need to do with Russia to cease to be a threat to Ukraine. After all, in most likely scenarios of the end of the war, Russia will still remain near us in some form. And so far, most of the scenarios indicate that the Russian Federation, or what it will occur in its place, will still bear an existential threat to Ukraine.

With regard to the security block, it should be realized that Russia as a state is not homogeneous, but heterogeneous [composed of different in origin and composition of parts]. In view of this, it is not enough to study the Russian Federation as a whole, and to succeed and understand what is happening there, you should also descend to the regional level. In different regions, completely different ethnic composition of the population.

Somewhere the indigenous peoples are more than the Russians, somewhere less, some other indicators differ. Somewhere the presence, so to speak, states, for example, Rosgvardia, larger, somewhere smaller. And with the help of collecting and analyzing data from different spheres of life, we study the level of dissatisfaction by regions, the potential capacity for protests, and in fact show how the Russian Federation should be explored.

The idea is to work with specific peoples, ethnicities and nationalities in specific regions. It is only as a result of long-term interaction and careful study of the region that it will be possible to speak about understanding at least some potential for national liberation movements. It's a long game. Also in the security block, we pay special attention to cybersecurity and cybersector as a whole. The fact is that we have a lot about cybersecurity, but little about cyberattack.

In developed countries, there has been an understanding for a long time: cyberspace is a battlefield. And for us the cybersector is very promising, because we ask for Americans atacms with a range of 300 km (and this is cool), but in cyberspace, as my colleague says, we can strike conditionally on Vladivostok [located more than 7,000 km from Kiev. ]. The diplomatic block is extremely important because our successes would be impossible without the support of the event.

The fact is that our economy is actually destroyed, we carry losses, and it is important for us to have financial, material and military support for international partners. And now Ukraine, together with partners, should increase pressure on the Russian Federation at the international level.

A striking example of this is the story that Russia has no right to membership in the UN Security Council, because the statute of this organization is still a member of the Soviet Union, not the Russian Federation. That is, things that have previously arranged everything, and now it is a window of opportunity for us. But the economic block is quite difficult to study.

The fact is that everything is changing in the economic sector right now, so we focused on showing the weakest places in the Russian economy. And despite the fact that it is a donor of resources, it has a huge problem with logistics and supply chains. First, because of its large territory. And secondly, it is because economic sanctions are in force, and therefore the Russians may decline the entire sectors of the economy.

Everything is interconnected here: sanctions are harming the economy, the economy loses the opportunity for employment of citizens, citizens feel a lack of funds and creates a potential for dissatisfaction, radicalization and, in some cases, centrifugal movements. It should be understood that it is unlikely that something "such" happens and all Russia has taken and broke up.