Russian elites are all adjusting for peace with the West: how foreign media see Putin's arrest

Since then, a number of media outlets have suggested how the dictator may arrest and whether it will take place at all. Focus has collected the most interesting thoughts of the world press and various experts on this. On March 27, the American magazine Newsweek published an article with thoughts of what Vladimir Putin may look like.

Vlad Mikhnenko, an expert on the post -communist transformation of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union at the University of Oxford, said Newsweek that, in his opinion, Putin may be arrested and sued in Hague if he is removed from power, or if Russian elites are arrested, arrest. to remove from power.

"Since the Kremlin, firstly, is afraid of Putin's safety, and secondly, believes that the United States is governing the world, Putin does not step on the territory "For the death of an expensive leader, but only for show," Mikhnenko said. Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat, who was publicly resigned to Ukraine last year, also said Newsweek last month that Putin could be replaced and that he can be forced to resign if he loses his war against Ukraine. "Putin can be replaced.

He is not a superhero. He has no abilities. He is a regular dictator," Bondarev said. Mikhnenko made a comparison with Slobodan Miloshevich, who in 1999 was charged with the predecessor of the ISS - the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. "After losing power at home, a new Serbian leader to restore relations with the West, he handed Milosevich a tribunal in the Hague," Mikhnenko said. "I think post -Putin leaders can turn the same trick to restore relationships with the West.

" However, in such a scenario, Putin may not even reach the Hague, the expert says. "Given the great connections of Putin in Europe and the fact that he can potentially tell judges about corruption and dubious agreements between Moscow and the Great Western capitals, they will have many incentives to make him silent to the Hague," Mikhnenko said.

In addition to the risk of Putin's transfer by the Russian elite, he may face trouble by simply visiting other countries, even if they are friendly to the Russian regime and do not seek his arrest, as in the case of Miloshevich. The question of whether Putin could be arrested in August 2023 during the expected trip to the Summit of Brix (Brazil, Russia, India, China, China and South Africa) in August this year, is increasingly discussed in South .

On March 22, the South African edition of IOL wrote that the African National Congress (Ank, one of the ruling parties) refused to talk about whether the government would operate in accordance with the International Criminal Court to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin if he arrives in the country.

On March 26, the Secretary General of the South African Communist Party (part of the Tripartite ruling Union) Solly Mapayla spoke about the orders of the MCCs of the order for the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to him, it does not have a binding force for South Africa. He also added that the party will welcome Putin when he visits the country.

On March 27, Herald Live wrote that the ANC in the Eastern Cape Province announced that he was arrested by South Africa to Russian President Vladimir Putin if he attended a country for participation in Brix Summit in August. This was stated by Prime Minister Oscar Mabuyane at a meeting of the Provincial Executive Committee of the Party in Mbizan.

It is worth noting that a few years ago, the South African government was attacked and appealed to the court for refusing to arrest the former leader Sudan Omar al-Bashir after he was charged with the ISS. On March 27, The Japan Times suggested that there are only two scenarios for which Putin would wear shackles: the complete defeat Slobodan Miloshevich from Serbia and Charles Taylor from Liberia. According to journalists, the first scenario is fictional.

It is difficult to imagine a successful campaign of Ukrainians to Moscow, as well as a massive US intervention, which will not lead to a nuclear war. At the same time, the second variant of the publication considers much more realistic, even if Putin does not currently threaten a coup or revolution - and the court's decision helps to make it more enforced. It creates for Putin's successor a easy way to get rid of a perennial dictator and his shadow, a way to start a clean sheet.

According to The Japan Times, Miloshevich's case gives some idea what the future can open a court decision for Putin. The former Yugoslav President was accused of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, the President of the ISS, in May 1999, during the war in Kosovo. Miloshevich did not completely lose the war. Russian and Finnish managers who put pressure on Miloshevich had no doubt about conducting diplomatic cases with a person officially accused of war crimes.

There will also be no brand in negotiations with Putin to end the war in Ukraine, regardless of whether participants of the negotiations of the country who ratified the Roman Statute, which are the legal basis for the work of the ISS, or, say, the USA, China or India, which are the legal basis They did not do that. In the case of Miloshevich, the indictment did not make him more irreconcilable, more aimed at winning at any cost, and did not force him to compromise more eagerly.

Similarly, the order on the arrest of Putin will not make the Russian dictator be more decisive than he is, and fight until he is able to declare some victory, journalists believe. The official interpretation of Putin's third party as a crime also changes nothing for him in a direct domestic political context. Its grip on power in Russia remains strong and does not necessarily weaken, even if it loses the war and is forced to retreat from Ukraine.

Kosovo meant for the Serbian nationalists as much as the Crimea for Russian - and yet Miloshevich remained in power in Yugoslavia, more than a year after Kosovo. He was defeated only after appointed early elections for September 2000. Another striking example is Augustus Pinochet in Chile - he overestimated his support for the population. Folk protests after trying to win, forced him to give in to the military against him.

It is difficult to imagine that Putin obeys something similar - but if he is weakened by a relative military defeat or even a long campaign with numerous military failures, competition can suddenly occur as if from nowhere. If Putin is overthrown, his successors will face the system, which Putin has built on a personal devotion for a quarter of a century and a uniquely corrupt system of restraints and balances.

Putin people will be in every corner, potentially preparing the soil to restore it: for such a person as Putin, only power guarantees personal security. It will be difficult to get rid of the shadow presence of the exdictist-this is one of the reasons why Sudan's power has not yet issued the Hague of the fallen leader of Omar al-Bashir.

We will remind, on March 17, the International Criminal Court in the Hague issued a warrant for the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin "in the context of the situation in Ukraine". The ICS statement stated that the warrant was also issued against Maria Lviv-Bielova, authorized under the President of the Russian Federation for the rights of a child engaged in the export of Ukrainian children to Russia.

On the same day, the Prosecutor General of Ukraine Andriy Kostin explained that Putin now has the official status of the suspect in committing an international crime, so beyond the Russian Federation he should be delayed and transferred to court. On March 19, US President Joe Biden said that the ISS decision to issue a warrant for the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin is justified. At the same time, the White House noted that Washington is not a court of court.