Winter without gas: what will happen after stopping the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine

What is threatened with the stopping of Russian gas transit Ukraine. " "Bad if the transit stops. The VDTSU is said to be ready. But they were not working in this mode. According to the instructions, the equipment should work, but in fact in the long phase, as everything will work, it is unknown. We have never worked. There was no experience three Weeks in January 2009, ” - said the Institute of Energy Strategies Yuriy Korolchuk.

According to Dragon Capital Senior Analytics Denis Sakva, the loss of transit will lead to inefficient use from the border of Europe to the east. It will be necessary to deploy gas flows from the western border to the south and east. It will be necessary to renew the system, it is a less effective mode, it is an increased consumption of technological gas, " - Sakva explained. But, in his opinion, Ukraine has long been preparing for such a scenario, and VSTSU may also be ready for zero transit.

" The threat is not at all zero. The Russians can implement technological provocations, and find "legal" justification of the transit stop, the probability of sanctions of the Russian authorities, and it will be impossible to calculate Gazprom with Naftogaz. In this case, one of the scripts - the transit will not be paid by the seller, but the one who buys. Accordingly, European companies will book our capacity, pay transit, and the gas transfer point will be at the border of Ukraine and Russia.

Another scenario - transit is stopped, that is, zero transit, and GTS mode is changed from west to east in a reverse direction. Then there is a risk to a number of settlements that can disconnect for some time from gas supply, but in general, the situation will be controlled, " - said the programs of the DIXI Group analytical center Roman Nitzovich.

Naftogaz of Ukraine will continue to attempt to file a lawsuit, then Naftogaz will impose sanctions of the Russian Federation, and "Gazprom" will not be able to pay for gas transportation services. That is, "Gazprom" voiced the threats to completely stop the transit of the GTS of Ukraine to Europe. The answer to the threats in his report on Facebook, Naftogaz, Yuriy Vitrenko, said that Gazprom manipulates information.

Experts say that in the case of stopping the transit during the heating season, and the likelihood of zero transit in November-January is very high. to the mode of energy savings, in particular gas. Although in gas storage facilities have accumulated sufficient volume of natural gas for winter. In conditions Transit stops for Ukrainians will be offered to switch to total resource savings. "If the pause in gas transit is delayed on the moon, then we simply do not have such experience.

It will definitely be a total saving of gas. How it will go away, no one will say today. In this mode, the system does not work, and plus pressure in the system little - accumulated There are 14. 5 billion cubic meters in gas storage facilities in conditions where there is no transit, ”says Yuri Korolchuk. As reported, the Russian gas monopolist Gazprom threatens sanctions against the Ukrainian company Naftogaz. Arbitration Court at the International Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Paris.