Putin plays for a while, believing that Kyiv and the West will get tired of the Russian Federation - Estonia intelligence

"The persistent imperialist position of Russia to its neighbors persists, and the fear of the Russians before mobilization exceeds the sense of responsibility for the genocide committed by their countrymen," the world reads. Russia plans to deploy mobilized reserves at the end of the first half of 2023 in a new offensive, warning Estonian scouts. Scouts also report that Putin hopes to bring bombardment to the negotiation table.

Russia is of the opinion that time is on its side, because Ukraine and its partners are not ready for protracted conflict. According to Estonia intelligence, the Kremlin plans additional mobilization to support war. "Russia was much more ambitious in 2013-14 than officially recognized the Kremlin. According to EFIS, Russia planned to occupy 11 regions of Ukraine," the annual report says.

According to Estonian intelligence, Russia is ready to continue raising rates: further mobilization or expansion of terror tactics against civilians. The use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine was evaluated as unlikely. "Russia continues to keep a" nuclear card "on the table as a tool for an anti -Western lever to inspire fear of war and to refuse Western countries from helping Ukraine," the report explained. Estonians do not believe in the Russian-Ukrainian War of Belarus.

In their view, the purpose of Belarus is to reduce pressure from Russia. That is why the Belarusian authorities support the Russian Federation with moral, logistically and logical support, including allowing the free use of its territory for maneuvers and the task of blows in Ukraine. But the intelligence of Estonia is convinced that the Belarusian armed forces do not want to interfere with military operations in Ukrainian territories.

"The war is unpopular in Belarusian society, and the reports of high casualties at the front strengthen this position. Belarusian armed forces rely largely on conscripts, and their departure to war will threaten the stability of the regime. (…) Lukashenko cannot be sure His contractors will not leave Ukraine and will not join the Belarusian volunteers who are fighting on the Ukrainian side, " - explain the position of Belarus in the report.

Putin's problems also arise in the occupied territories. The personnel are not enough, and the attitude of Ukrainians to the temporary power is difficult to call friendly. The invaders were not ready for such rejection of the Russian regime by local residents. "Occupational authorities complain that applying for Russian passports is difficult, banks do not work, there is a lack of teachers, and only" Ukrainian propaganda "is broadcast on television.

There is also a lack of medicines and fears about overcoming difficulties in winter. (…) In the occupied territories, he proved to be as insufficient as its overall ability to threaten Ukraine, "the Estonia intelligence officers say in the report. The annual report of Estonian intelligence did not forget about Russia's crisis in foreign policy. Russian diplomats were not ready for a full -scale invasion and a sharp change in their attitude to them in the international arena because of it.

"The role of Russian diplomats in countries is reduced to a monotonous repetition of propaganda lies. The Russian ambassadors, finding themselves in disconnecting information, are regularly forced to improvise at international meetings. Since February 24, new daily problems of Russian diplomats include concern about what they do not know. Monthly salary to their bank account or, if not, colleagues have to borrow money, " - reports Estonia intelligence.

Earlier, Estonian intelligence was already divided into predictions when rockets ended in Russia. On January 28, he wrote a focus. It all depends on two factors, according to scouts: the ability to produce new missiles and stocks of old ones. On February 1, the focus reported on the erection of the monument to Vladimir Zelensky in Estonia. The statue of the President of Ukraine in sand was created by the community of Tyrva, it will stand until the victory of Ukraine.