For half a year of war. Russian image as a superpower destroyed - Bloomberg

At the same time, it was noted that a weak economy would create problems for the Russians. Video of the day, most of the expectations of both Western experts and the Kremlin were fundamentally erroneous. Russia cannot reach with the US armed forces or even the smaller NATO countries, says Phillips O'Branin, Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of Saint-Endrew (Scotland).

The war in Ukraine has shown that the Russian army "is not capable of carrying out complex operations as the British, French or Israelis can do, so it is not even a military state from this point of view. " Infrastructure, cities and settlements of Ukraine caused significant losses, the country suffered heavy military losses, and millions of people were forced to escape. Ukraine's economy in a difficult situation.

However, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proved himself as a bold wartime leader capable of uniting the nation, and the Armed Forces forced the aggressor army to retreat from Kiev and regroup in the Donbass. "On February 24, we were told: you have no chance. On August 24, we say: Happy Independence Day, Ukraine! - Zelensky said in his address to the nation. " What was the end of the war for us? We said: peace. Now we say: Victory.

" Ukraine's military power is supported by the supplies of advanced American and European weapons, while the country still has to demonstrate that it can carry out a successful large -scale contradiction at a time when its allies undergo an increase in economic pressure. At the same time, forecasts about economic collapse in Russia also did not come true: GDP falls steadily but not catastrophic rates-4% over the second quarter.

This is due to the fact that the growth of world energy prices supports the revenue part of the budget. In May, the Ministry of Finance of Russia predicted a 12 percent fall in the economy this year. Russia has reduced the supply of natural gas to Europe that has suddenly turned into a powerful economic weapon.

Although measures have been taken to mitigate the consequences of reducing The pond, the authorities of Europe - from Finland to Germany - in recent days it warns citizens to prepare for difficulties. Belgium Prime Minister Alexander de Condis stated on August 22 that "the next five to ten winters will be difficult. " European prices for natural gas have increased by about 15 times compared to the average summer.

O'Branin was one of the few Western military analysts, who, before the war, predicted that Putin would be stuck in Ukrainian mire, and subsequent events only exacerbated the expert's skepticism on the quality of Russian weapons, troops' training and command efficiency. According to O'Braen, Russia could not find the answer to the supply of only 20 launchers of Himars, American technology in the 1980s, which Ukrainian troops use to destroy ammunition and logistics systems in the deep rear.

"In the US, such systems are 540. Russia is not even in the same league," he states. Some Russian political scientists and officials, in particular close to power, claim that they were well aware of the weakness of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the problems that troops would face in Ukraine. That is why so many people refused to believe that Putin would "press the trigger".

A source close to the Russian defense establishment said that, by general, the invasion would in any case turn into something similar to a war in Korea in the 1950s. However, even these people in Moscow thought that Russia would be able to seize more east of the Dnieper River.

According to Michael Kafman, a director of Russia's research in the Washington analytical center CNA, one of the reasons for the backlog of the Russian Federation became clear only after the start of the war - the force of the army was overestimated to hide insufficient investments in the preparation of live force.

When Russia was gathering troops around Ukraine, the estimates were based on the calculation of the so -called battalion tactical groups (BTG) - maneuverable units with its artillery, air defense, rear, and approximately 50 tanks and armored vehicles. It was assumed that each BTG would have 700-900 servicemen, in which case the invasion army had about 150,000 people.

In fact, in one BTG, there were 600 people in the average personnel or less, and the total number could only be 90,000 contractual Russian servicemen, Kafman said in Podcast of the West Point Institute of Modern War. Particularly sensitive was the lack of infantry. According to Cofman, it influenced the course of the war and explained the difficulties encountered by the Russians, leaving the main roads, getting involved in city battles and trying to capture the territory.

The ability of the Russian Federation to produce technologically advanced weapons will probably be even more undermined, since sanctions interfere with import. The study of Russian equipment, captured or destroyed in the fields of battles in Ukraine, revealed 450 components of foreign production in 27 Russian critical weapons, including drones, missiles and communication. Most of these parts were made by American companies.

Although smuggling and espionage can partially fill the void, "Russia and its armed forces remain very vulnerable to multilateral efforts to cover these flows of components and increase the price of its aggression in Ukraine," the August report of the British Royal United Services Institute said in August report. Remaining under sanctions, Russia may not even be able to support its nuclear arsenal in the long run, says military analyst Pavel Luzin.

"The lack of industrial equipment, technologies and human capital will keep the current number of intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear submarines and strategic bombers simply impossible," Luzin said. At the same time, Russia remains a nuclear state with a terrible tendency to escalate conflict. The Soviet Union at one time managed to develop its arsenal without access to Western (or modern Chinese) technologies. “The West underestimates the level of elasticity of the Russian system.