Peace for these. As China tries to play the role of peacekee

The only thing that is known is the statement of SI on the intention to send their representatives to Kiev for subject conversations with the President of Ukraine. Does this pressure from the PRC to stop the fire here and now? Yes and no. And the latter is still more likely. For Beijing, of course, the end of the war, and in the format, when one of the intermediaries in the negotiations is China.

The war itself, more precisely, related processes, create risks to Chinese trade and promote Chinese interests in Eastern Europe. And the threats to the scaling of the conflict created by Russia, and are completely undesirable. On the other hand, having drawn into the war against Ukraine, Russia (with its successes) deprives itself of the status of a global player, a superpower.

If a year ago the Kremlin ambitions relied on the thesis of the power of the Russian army and the functionality of the Russian Federation as a key supplier of hydrocarbons in Europe, today the situation has changed. Russia has rapidly losing its impact even on those regions where it has recently been a "key" external force: Central Asia, the Caucasus. Even Belarus - and that China carefully pulls closer to itself.

And the visit of SI to Moscow finally confirmed - in the partnership of the PRC and the Russian Federation the latter assigned the role of a dependent, junior partner. This process is beneficial to China, the question is where and at what level of weakening of Beijing it is profitable to stop the process. And here we approach this explanation why "not right now". The summer campaign on the front will show how strong the Russian army is.

China spent a partial dimension, agreeing to large -scale joint training in the Far East. There, apparently, not everything went smoothly in Russia, because the commander of the Pacific Fleet was replaced a week after the maneuvers were completed. Verification remains on the Ukrainian Front. Moreover, if the Russian Federation is defeated, then the Kremlin top, seeking to find resistance, becomes even more agreeing and compliant in Chinese proposals. This is the first meaning for Beijing to wait.

The second meaning is the processes in Ukraine itself. The pressure on freezing "here and now" will not accept the leadership of the country or society. And perseverance in this matter will only be harmful to Chinese interests, as it will complicate the implementation of the plans of the post -war "entrance" to the region. The third meaning.

We mention the trip of President Brazil to the PRC, his proposals for the creation of a "group of state-state states" to ensure the negotiation process against Ukraine. We will add French-Chinese consultations on the same topic. From the point of view of strengthening its own role in the world, China is profitable at this stage to work on the creation of such a "coalition".

Its formal appearance without the beginning of the negotiation process is naturally impossible, but the preparatory stage can be passed and necessary now. The fourth meaning. Ideal for the PRC - to ask for it to participate in the process. It is desirable European states and (or) USA. Formal or informal appeal - does not play roles. And this is possible again, only after a summer campaign on the front. And finally, the fifth meaning.

Russia plays the role of an international bully that shakes the world order. The US and the PRC are the benefits of the process - they will create a new one. And for Beijing the ideal option is to talk not only about Ukraine (with the participation of Ukraine, by the way), but also a conversation on global topics with the United States (here without the participation of third parties). This is not the beginning.