New arms race and nuclear threat. Why Putin stopped Russia's participation in the S-3 treaty

Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared suspension of Russian participation in the US treaty about measures to further reduce and restrict strategic offensive weapons (S-3). Return to him, according to Putin, is possible if the ambitions of France and the United Kingdom - European countries with nuclear weapons are understood. Yes, the Kremlin again wants guarantees from the term "collective event".

The Russian President also outraged NATO's request to fulfill the terms of the contract and pass to the strategic objects of Western experts. "Absurd Theater is somehow. The event is directly involved in the Kiev regime's attempts to strike on the bases of our strategic aviation. Now they want to inspect our defense facilities," Putin said. The Russian President stressed that the goal of the US and NATO is to defeat Russia.

He then called on the Russian military and "Rosatom" to prepare for possible tests of nuclear weapons. Declaring the exit from S-3, Putin, without knowing it, voiced the innovation. The terms of the S-3 contract do not provide for unilateral suspension of its validity. Article 14, paragraph 3, allows the parties to leave the agreement in the manner of state sevoy. "Each of the parties . . .

has the right to withdraw from the contract if it decides that exceptional circumstances have jeopardized its higher interests," the document reads. Option for Russia - the use of the Vienna Convention on the Law of International Treaties of May 23, 1969, which allows to suspend the contract or terminate it due to significant violations of the agreement by one of the participants. Putin did not mention this document.

The new treaty between Moscow and Washington on the mutual reduction of nuclear weapons came into force on February 5, 2011. At the time of signing, the parties determined the validity of 10 years, and in January 2021 the contract was extended until February 5, 2026. Each country of S-3 has undertaken to have a limited amount of equipment and ammunition capable of carrying a nuclear charge.

In numbers, it looks like this: the S-3 treaty limits the Russian nuclear remedies, given the IBRD, capable of reaching the United States in about 30 minutes. The conditions apply to the missile complexes "Avangard" and "Sarmat". According to the Federation of American scientists (FAS) for 2022, Russia had the largest reserves of tactical and strategic nuclear warheads in the world - almost 6 thousand units.

In the US, a little less - 5 428 warheads, followed by France and the United Kingdom (290 and 225). Iran on the approach - enriched uranium up to 84%. Only 6%is not enough to create nuclear weapons, IAEA noted. The Deputy Foreign Ministry of Russia Sergey Ryabkov indicated that the contract of S-3 stipulates 18 arms checks for a year on each side. Russia and the US have created all mechanisms to track the increase in nuclear potential.

To get around, you need to violate the rules of the game, explained in the Foreign Ministry. The US Department of State confirmed the openness of the Russian Federation and permission to American representatives to monitor its fulfillment of all DSSno obligations. The Kremlin in 2021 also said that the extension of the treaty ensures "predictability of the strategic relationship of Russia and the US" and "corresponds to the national interests" of the country.

On January 21, 2021, Putin signed a law on the continuation of DSU. He then said that the agreement was in line with the national interests of Russia, maintains the predictability of Russia and the United States and will contribute to the development of nuclear disarmament. Arms inspections have not been conducted since 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, and then through the decision of Moscow due to the "effect in Ukraine".

According to Ryabkov, Russia wanted to send a "political signal" to the states and announced the transfer of consultations. The American newspaper The Wall Street Journal, with reference to the State Department's report on January 31 this year, wrote for the first time on Moscow's violation of the conditions of S-3 and the rejection of Washington's requests for meetings to discuss this issue.

In September 2022, Russia informed the United States that it has 1,549 ammunition, but without admission of inspections, the states could not confirm the data. Visespicker of the Russian Federation Konstantin Kosachev called this statement "unfair and false" and said that the Americans were the first to break the obligations.

American experts in conversation with The Wall Street Journal said that Russia's exit from S-3 will have no dramatic consequences in the short term, but does not promise anything good in the future. "Putin has warned so much about the possibility of fully leaving the contract. In this case, there will be tremendous changes that will catastrophically reduce the US nuclear security. .

The size and composition of the British and French nuclear arsenals has not changed since the conclusion of the S-3 agreement, says the Executive Director of the Armament Control Association in Washington Daryl Kimbol. According to the expert, in Moscow from the above 5 977 nuclear warheads there are tactical small range, which affects targets up to 70 kilometers. These shells do not fall under the effect of S-3.

The main consequence of Putin Daryl Kimbol's step sees an obstacle to attempts to conclude the next agreement after the expiration of the SNO in February 2026. "For the first time since 1972, a new agreement will not be concluded on the restriction of strategic nuclear arsenals of the US and Russia," he said. The former senior senior arms control adviser John Wolfstal agreed with Kimbol.

"Details matter, but if Russia really ceases to exchange data and reports, it will radically change nuclear relations with the United States. The US still has great opportunities to monitor the nuclear forces , will enhance the perception of the threat and speed up the arms race, "he wrote on Twitter. The Guardian writes that Russia will keep the S-3 conditions for some time, but the US will be more difficult to check the data with the available technical means.

"One of the advantages - Russia's decision is political. It can be easily canceled in the event of warming relations with the states. And now the problem is no changes in the political relations of the two countries in the near future," - quotes the comment of a senior researcher of weapons programs mass destruction of the UN Research Institute in the field of disarmament of Andrei Baklitsky.

Nuclear weapons expert James Ekraton in a conversation with Der Spiegel proves an increase in the risk of nuclear weapons using the weapons to suspend arms control. The US and Russia will no longer share information about arsenals-this will complicate the process of checking SO-3. Ecton considers Russian nuclear testing as a lever against the West for a clear loss in the war in Ukraine. "The nuclear weapons race began before Moscow's exit.

Moscow will accelerate the course of events-the strategic weapons race will be between three superpowers: Russia, China and the United States," the analyst comments. The Spanish newspaper El Mundo emphasizes Joe Biden's concerns about the visit of China's head of Czinpin to Moscow in the coming months. Putin's decision to withdraw from the agreement has less priority. The Arcano Partners Head Bjorn Bim says the exit from S-3 fits into the Kremlin's weapon policy.

"So far, this policy has made a lot of noise out of nothing, at least in the field of nuclear weapons. Baiden does not involve an increase in active Russian nuclear warheads or Moscow's plans for re -equipment," the expert explains. El Mundo journalists drew attention to 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads that are allowed to have Russia and the US. This is more than enough for the nuclear war, which will kill everything in the world, summed up the authors.

It should be reminded that Putin decided to strengthen the nuclear triad and in 2023 wants to deploy the launch installations of the Sarmat missile system with a new heavy missile, put on the stream the production of hypersonic missiles "Kinzal" and rockets of maritime base "Zircon". On February 22, the American CNN reported on February 22 of the unsuccessful test of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile.