Return Crimea, NATO Participation, Korean Scenario: 5 options, how will the war end

Moscow will not reach political goals and will not capture the whole of Ukraine, and it becomes more difficult to expel the invaders from every centimeter of the occupied territory, the head of the United States Milly, the head of the United States Milly, said in an interview with the British newspaper Financial Times. "This is extremely difficult. The victory of Ukraine will, in fact, collapse of the Russian army," - adds the head of the General Staff.

The American General sees the parties to be hung up for purposes and do not want to speak, but the presence of a nuclear arsenal in Russia increases rates. "The big country has nuclear weapons. It is necessary to be conscious in the management of the escalation of confrontation, to defend the principles of the UN and international order," he said. According to Millie, diplomatic opportunities between Moscow and Kiev can appear at any moment.

His Norwegian colleague, General Eirik Christoffersen, agreed with these statements - the victory of one of the parties will take a long time. The long -war scenario will have horrible consequences for people, says Christoffersen. "Ukraine is based on the help of the event, and Russia is supported by North Korea, Iran and China technologies. In Ukraine, there is a battle for who can resist. In the worst case, the war will last for several years," the general says.

The Kremlin again talked about "Plan B" for Ukraine - the authorship of the former people's deputy from the underground, the godfather of Russian President Vladimir Putin Viktor Medvedchuk. The section of Ukraine is envisaged by Korean Scenario. Russia will try to completely capture the Lugansk and Donetsk region with the land corridor to the Crimea and after that it can start a plan "B", assures the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Alexei Danilov.

The Senior Researcher on Policy of the European Council on International Relations (ECFR) Gustav Gressel notes that Moscow changed the tactics of fighting in April 2022. The Kremlin needs to exhaust Kiev resources faster than its own. "The Russian authorities rely on the information war and blackmailing Europe with energy to reduce international assistance to Ukraine. The mobilization of about 200 thousand people will be affected in the front situation in the near future.

The ideas of attacks from Belarus are unlikely until the end of spring - Russia has not overturned enough military forces. " he. If the supply of heavy weapons, tanks and BMPs from the West is gaining momentum, the Ukrainian counter -offensive may well start in the second half of 2023, the analyst said. The experts surveyed by focus named 5 possible scenarios for the end of the hot phase of the conflict.

They all depend on the situation on the front, social and political situation in Ukraine and the Russian Federation. The analyst of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future Igor Tyshkevich in conversation with focus emphasizes the reality of the "Korean division" in the third version due to lack of money and military resources for the victory of Ukraine. "Moscow does not plan, and Ukraine has not occupied the territories of Russia.

The parties will sit at the negotiating table and will agree on ceasefire on the front at the moment," he adds. The Executive Director of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future Vadim Denysenko criticizes Russia's plans for the collapse of Ukraine, which are not accustomed to the first time in many years. "Medvedchuk can talk to Putin about anything-he is no one who is called. The Russians are trying to rock the story of" Two Ukraine ", we have passed this in 2004 and 2014.

Nothing changes, the Kremlin has been working in the paradigm of recent decades," - says Denysenko Focus. The Armed Forces will be difficult to protect against the attack of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the first half of 2023 and the beginning of a large -scale corruption is still unlikely, Gustav Gressel writes. According to him, the Ukrainian military is satisfied with the fire from closed positions from artillery and attacks of the enemy's positions by infantry.

This tactic is due to the lack of armored personnel carriers, combat armored vehicles and tanks. "If the supply of heavy weapons, western tanks and BMPs is gaining momentum, the counter -offensive of the Armed Forces will be in the second half of 2023. Spare parts and ammunition for Soviet weapons are already scarce. As they delay the war they are exhausted, it is difficult to predict their accessibility. Soviet weapons remained. The number of combat systems of the event is still small.

Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko draws attention to another position of General Millie. In a telephone conversation of February 11 with the Commander -in -Chief of the Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny, he expressed an understanding of the needs Of Ukraine. "Delaying the war is not in favor of Ukraine. Millie's words about the impossibility of winning the warring sides is a signal. Kiev has to think about the quick scenario of end of the war.

American politicians have received a message-more assistance to Ukraine so that the fighting is not delayed, "says the political scientist focus. According to him, the US has critics of the full release of the occupied territories of Ukraine. There is an opinion that the issue of Crimea will be resolved political and diplomatically later. "The Korean version declared by Russia and its puppet will not bring peace. This is a pause - freezing along the front line.

Options for events can be attributed to the end of 2023, it all depends on the scale of Western support, the military situation, on the state of affairs in Russia. I am not sure that the Russian Federation will withstand a long struggle, " - said expert. Vladimir Putin is only configured for victory, putting trees in the war of tremendous economic and military resources, he will not go to any agreements, confident Western analysts. " They will regroup and replenish the stocks.

Putin's stubbornness is manifested in the fact that he does not go on negotiations, putting forward preliminary conditions that are absolutely unacceptable to Kiev. This was convinced by Washington and other allies in one - Ukraine should not lose. This thought is not the only one in the Western Alliance. Differences on the solution of war will continue " - says ECFR. Millie voices the narratives of the administration of Joe Biden. Much depends on the question or will Putin nuclear weapons.

No one can answer - yes or no. Putin tries to position himself as samurai - he will go to the end, and what is the end in his concept - it is unclear. This does not mean that the entire army of the Russian Federation and nuclear missiles will fly, "he comments on. The difficult question is the ratio . The dream of Ukrainians to see the Ruins of the Kremlin is impossible, says political scientist Viktor Bobirenko.

The constitutions of the two countries state that Crimea is an integral part and in the criminal codes that reflects its territorial affiliation, " - reports expert. Bobirenko concludes that there is no subject for negotiating Putin's life, and there may be temporary option for the end of the hot phase A truce. "Our generation will receive a truce, and where we will stay - depends on the Armed Forces.

The best scenario for Ukraine is to reach Krasnodon of the Luhansk region and to take Crimea with the Kerch Bridge. There is no peace in Japan with Russia, their truce has been going on since 1945. Two Korea is in a truce since 1953, but this means passing the course to the next generations, "the political scientist sums up. Recall that on February 20, US President Joe Biden arrived with a secret visit. Square.

The American leader did not come with empty hands - he promised to provide Ukraine with a package of military assistance for $ 500 million. It would include ammunition for long -range HIMARS and howitzers, as well as Javelin PTRC. Vladimir Zelensky said will affect the course of the war with Russia. Russian propagandists consider Biden's visit to Ukraine as "humiliation" of Russia. TV presenter Olga Skabeva said that in Kiev for Biden allegedly specifically included air alarm.