Next - a nuclear catastrophe for the ZPP. As Russia will develop chaos created by her

What happened on the Kakhovsky hydroelectric power station does not have one simple explanation. There is a whole complex of reasons that will lead to a number of consequences - in particular, unfortunately, the worst. They are investigated by the analyst Roman Komiz. Concerning the situation with the undermining of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station.

The reasons are now among the main goals, why it was done is usually called two: it is the so -called tactics of "burned earth" and "to stop the counter -offensive. " In my opinion, to explain what happened, this is not enough, so without rejecting these versions, let's look at a new episode of war in the complex. Therefore, there are several reasons that should be considered as a comprehensive explanation. Reason 1: Prevent a counter -offensive on this front area.

The keywords "on this site", since no significant influence on the whole plan for the release of the occupied territories will not affect the dam. All, including the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation, have long realized that the main direction of the counter-offensive will not be "forcing the Dnieper" in the Kherson region. But individual actions in this region, of course, are probably part of a big plan.

And in this sense, blasting the dams can have a local and temporary effect to disrupt the Armed Forces plans for landing on the left bank and an offensive from Kherson. For example, to delay the beginning of the movement of Ukrainian troops in the Kherson direction for 5-7 days, well, maybe several weeks. Reason 2: Tactics of burned ground. From the point of view of the Russian Federation, it makes direct sense to make the most destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure (including energy).

To then, after de -occupation, it is impossible to restore the liberated territory . . . Such an explanation is now very popular and it has a simple and understandable argumentation for all. But I do not like the emotional accent that is usually used. In fact, from the point of view of the Russian strategy, there are no emotions here and no "so you get to anyone.

" This is absolutely fit into their main purpose, which many still do not fully understand, writing off everything on Putin's manicality and his environment. Of course, all these conversations about "population protection", about the Russian world, etc. - All this is a fake that is the cover of the main goal.

And the purpose is not the capture of territories, and not the officially voiced "goals of their", but the complete destruction of Ukraine by any way, including the destruction of its statehood, genocide of Ukrainians, deportation and/or transforming them into refugees-but as a result, complete destruction The Ukrainian nation is in any available ways. And horseradish with her with the territory, if it is impossible to keep it (this is not the main thing for them).

That is why the destruction of infrastructure and, as a consequence, man -made, environmental and humanitarian catastrophes clearly fit into the general purpose of Russia, especially in the conditions of impossibility of maintaining the occupied territory. Reason 3: show at least some results. During the reign, the Putin regime managed to drive the population to the information cocoon. It is a very comfortable management scheme so complex and different in all meaning in the country.

With the help of TV in the Russian Federation, much more problems related to power are solved than in other countries. There is everything on the TV. The war also goes on TV. But against the background of the absence of visible victories, especially in the conditions of "alarming" news from Belgorod region, blows of drones in Moscow, etc. The war gradually crawls out of the TV.

And when more bad news breaks through the thin shell of the information cocoon, it is necessary to show some stories that, on the one hand, could justify clearly failed episodes of "their", demonstrating that the army and the government do not sit sitting, that everything is under control and something There is done there. On the other hand, it has the necessary soothing effect that satisfies the instincts of the thirsty blood of the crowd.

Reason 4: Factor Ultima Ratio, the so -called "last argument". I would generally call it a major factor in their strategy and, incidentally, the main argument that explains the course of current and close events. This factor is aimed at how to prevent, suspend or complicate the Ukrainian counter -offensive. Only unlike the funds considered within the reasons of the first, here is not a local, but a full -scale effect.

This is achieved in various ways of moral and psychological and political pressure on the Ukrainian leadership, as well as the leadership of the country countries. The main tool is a nuclear threat. However, I consider the use of nuclear weapons (including the threat of its use) more complicated and risky, and therefore less likely, for a number of reasons that have already been discussed repeatedly.

But the script with a man -made disaster at the Zaporozhye NPP, I consider it much more likely, because it is much simpler in terms of the mechanism of implementation and somewhere more efficient . . . accused of a catastrophe, of course, Ukraine. Of course, no one will believe them, but it is not necessary.

Unlike the direct use of nuclear weapons (no matter from the territory of the Russian Federation or Belarus), this scenario allows you to keep the situation in the murky water, where it is not known wherever it was fired and who pressed on. For a better understanding of what this is, let's break this scenario into two components: 1-expectant result: 2-extent of implementation: again: the fourth reason is the most dangerous and, perhaps, the most important as an explanation.

This does not mean that by making this terrorist attack, the Russian Federation will reach all its goals. It is likely that it can have the opposite effect, up to the recognition of the Russian Federation by the state-sponsor of terrorism and exclusion from the UN.

However, given the fluctuations in the event on the final and irreversible decision to supply Ukraine with all the necessary types of weapons necessary for the complete victory over the aggressor, I believe that such plans and expectations of the Russian Federation are not unjustified. They press and press west, raising the bar of global danger. There are no other methods left. Reason 5: Disorganization of the system of Russian power. I cannot leave this reason out.

It is said that the Brownian movement in the environment of the elite has already begun: when someone wants to substitute someone, or provoke someone, to push for any action, or to limit the possibilities of maneuver.

This trend in Russia will only grow in the struggle for power, the main players both in the Center and in the periphery will sometimes be displayed not entirely clear from the point of view of the interests of the entire ruling class of action, but quite logical, if you look at the problem on the other hand.