One employee now holds one pensioner. Will we be with pensions after the war?

Talks about the need for the introduction of the second level of the pension system in Ukraine have been so long ago that almost 20 years ago, a rule on the introduction of a compulsory accumulating system appeared in the Ukrainian pension legislation. However, for all these years - they have never been done. At stake - demographics during this time the demographic crisis in the country has not only intensified, because of the war it has gained a disaster.

I will give only a few figures: - due to the exceeding the mortality rate over the birth rate since 1991, the population of Ukraine is constantly decreasing. If in 1991 the population was 51. 6 million people, as of January 1, 2022, this figure was already 41. 16 million (according to the State Statistics Committee). That is, during these years the population has decreased by 10 million Ukrainians and continues to decline in the world.

- In addition to reducing, statistics demonstrates the aging of the population: the share of citizens under 17 years of age in the structure of the permanent population of the country is 17. 9%. This means that in the medium -term and long -term prospects, fewer women will reach reproductive age, because the less people are born today, the less they are tomorrow and the day after tomorrow.

- As for the birth rate for one Ukrainian: according to the Institute of Demography and Social Research, in 2021 it was 1. 1 children. This is also one of the lowest in the world. In order to provide at least simple generation reproduction, you need 2. 15 children per woman. Russia's war against Ukraine has intensified the negative processes at times, because from February 24, 2022, not just 7-8 million Ukrainians left Ukraine.

First, an educated part of the population was actively traveling (more than half of women who have traveled outside Ukraine have a higher education, 30% are already employed). Secondly, it is unknown how many Ukrainians will return home after the war. Also, unfortunately, we understand that as a result of a full -scale war, the number of able -bodied population will decrease and the number of persons with disabilities will increase.

Among the negative factors as a result of the war that was resolved by our crazy northern neighbor, and the high mortality rates of working age men, and a probable decline in fertility, loss of housing and significant deterioration of its quality. Again, the increase in mortality due to exacerbation of chronic diseases, the stress and the inability of the occupied and frontier areas to receive proper medical care in a timely manner.

From the factors of demographic - to the factors of economic according to statistics, as of June 2022, there were 10. 8 million working population, which pays the ESA, and as many pensioners. That is, in fact, today one working holds one pensioner. The replacement ratio (percentage of a salary that a person can receive as a pension) under such conditions is 27. 4%, which means that in the case of retirement, human income is three times.

And the average pension (UAH 4 370) is the lowest in Europe and cannot meet even the basic needs of man. I think the question is that we can delay the reform of the pension system for an indefinite time or decline about its design for ten years. Changes are needed today. The situation is complicated, but longer delayed means more and rapidly deterioration. We all wait for the victory of Ukraine in the war with Russia. However, it is not enough to win, the country is facing other, economic threats.