The Russian economy is expected by nuclear winter. Confidential Report for the Government of the Russian Federation - Bloomberg

Persons familiar with its discussion confirmed the authenticity of the document. According to the agency, the document was the result of a multi -year work of officials and experts who try to evaluate the true influence of economic isolation of the Russian Federation through invasion of Ukraine - and it draws a much "gloomier picture" than official statements.

Two of the three scenarios in the report show that the fall of the economy will accelerate in 2023, and it will return to the pre -war level only at the end of the decade or even later. The "inertial" scenario predicts the fall of the Russian economy in 2023 by 8. 3% compared to 2021 and 6% in 2024. The "stress" scenario involves the fall of GDP by 11% in 2023 and 11. 9% in 2024 compared to 2021.

All scenarios provide for increased pressure of sanctions, which are likely to join more and more countries. The report states that the abrupt rejection of Europe from Russian oil and gas will also hit the Kremlin's ability to provide the domestic market. In addition to sanctions that already cover about a quarter of Russian imports and exports, the report describes in detail how Russia faces a blockade that has "affected almost all modes of transport.

" Pressure on the economy of the Russian Federation increases technological and financial constraints. According to the report, up to 200 thousand IT professionals can leave the country by 2025. Exports in the next year or two of the Russian Federation are expected to "reduce production volumes in a number of sectors-oriented exports": from oil and gas to metallurgical, chemical products and exports of wood. "These sectors will cease to be drivers of the economy," the report said.

The complete cessation of gas supply to Europe (the main export market of Russia) can cost $ 6. 6 billion a year in the form of underpassed tax revenues. It will not be possible to fully compensate for the lost markets with new export directions even in the medium term, the report says. The blow to the oil and gas sector of hydrocarbon production will have to be reduced, which will jeopardize the Kremlin's goal of expanding the internal gas market, the report says.

The lack of technologies necessary for the construction of LNG production plants is critical. Europe plans to stop importing Russian petroleum products (55% of exports in 2021) can also lead to a sharp decline in production, which results in fuel deficiency in the domestic market. In addition, the report states that Russian metallurgists will lose $ 5. 7 billion a year because of sanctions.

The authors of the report warn that if the global economy slip into recession, Russia will face further exports - and the demand for its products will disappear in the first place. This provokes the fall of the ruble and a splash of inflation. Imports "The main short -term risk is the suspension of production due to the lack of imported raw materials and components", the report reads. In the long run, the impossibility of repairing imported equipment can permanently limit economic growth.

The "most important import" "alternative suppliers for some of the most important imported goods is simply not," - the report reads. Even in the agricultural sector, where the Kremlin advertises its efforts to replace foreign supplies, dependence on external factors can force Russians to reduce food consumption.

The report emphasizes that restricted access to Western technologies will lead to the fact that the Russian Federation will last from existing standards for one or two generation, as it will be forced to rely on less advanced alternatives from China and Southeast Asia. In the sector, the breadth of the effects of sanctions is most complete: - agriculture: 99% of poultry production and 30% of dairy production depend on imports.

Seeds for major products such as sugar beet and potatoes, fish feed and amino acids are critical. - Aviation: 95% of the passenger traffic falls on foreign aircraft, and the lack of access to import spare parts will reduce the fleet as they are operated. - Mechanical engineering: in the Russian Federation, only 30% of machines are manufactured in Russia, the local industry is not able to meet the growing demand for equipment.