Why will Putin lose power

On the contrary, it can be stated that every month the problem of Moscow is only multiplying. Video of the day of July-August did not bring Russia any significant victory in the east and south of our country. International isolation is only intensified, as evidenced by the EU's probability of refusing a simplified visa system to Russians in the near future. Let us also note the fall of weapons exports from Russia. If, by 2016, Russia had 23% of the world weapons market, then in 2021-19%.

Given the war in Ukraine and the actions of sanctions, in 2022-2023 this figure will only decrease, especially in the region of Southeast Asia. The internal problems, primarily related to the war, will also accumulate. It is an economy, social protection and, of course, an increase in the number of killed, wounded and missing Russian soldiers in Ukraine.

An important point in the loss of power by Putin is the inability of his political regime to guarantee the safety of residents of border areas with Ukraine, as well as Crimea. It can be said that the "cotton" will continue there, panic and apathy will grow, and sooner or later the Russians will start saying aloud that the authorities did nothing to protect them from war. The fact is that the war looks very "patriotic and beautiful" from TV screens and news ribbons of Kremlin propaganda.

But as soon as it comes to your city, your street, neighboring or your house, the war already looks completely different, because it carries a direct danger to you and your loved ones. And it does not like anyone. Even the greatest "cheers-patriots" of Russia. Putin realizes that the so -called "special operation" has been delayed.

That is why he is looking for the possibility of negotiations to freeze the conflict to restore strength and resources, and continue the war in the spring and summer of 2023. He needs a victory, no matter what exactly, but victory. Dmitry Medvedev's mouth scares Europe in the cold winter and gas of 5 thousand euros. In order to achieve negotiations, Russia is openly nuclear blackmail, using the Zaporizhzhya NPP for its purposes.

If you make concessions of Putin today, tomorrow it will be expensive not only for Ukraine, but for the entire collective event. Putin should be achieved and increased sanctions and increasing the supply of weapons and financial assistance to Ukraine. It is an effective recipe that can permanently quench the incurable patient. 2023 is very important for Putin and his regime.

On March 17, 2024, the next election of the President of Russia and in the spring of 2023 already need to think about the election campaign. It is in this context that the likelihood of loss of power by the Kremlin dictator should be considered. This requires the following conditions. The first is no Putin's victory in Ukraine. Going to the polls without victory, but only with a mountain of corpses and economic problems is not for the winner. That is why Putin will have to look for a replacement.

We do not know who he can choose, but a new person headed by the Russian Federation is still a new person, not an old dictator. The second is that the event has to make the final decision to do with Putin. The US and Europe do not understand whether they want changes in power in Russia, because they are afraid of unknown more than their usual dictator.

Therefore, the event should answer the question of what Russia should become without Putin and whether he is ready - the West, to conduct a dialogue with those who can replace Putin. And if he is ready to conduct such a dialogue, then he should take care of the search for a conditional "new Khrushchev" - a person capable of debunking the cult of Putin's personality and recognize the collective responsibility of Russians for the war and crimes in Ukraine.

The third point is a large -scale increase in dissatisfaction within Russia. The more Putin is in Ukraine, the more the voices of Russian radicals, chauvinists, monarchists, ura patriots, liberals, lumpen, who will lose jobs will be heard. The misunderstanding of the goals and the course of war will be frightened by the Russians. And the more such misunderstandings, the less the chances of Putin to stay in power.

On the other hand, we can say that the Kremlin dictator wants to use the war in Ukraine as a factor in uniting the nation. Like, Russia is fighting against NATO and the US, and the West wants to destroy the Russian Federation, and only Putin is able to preserve and protect Russia from collapse. Will the Russians believe such a message? Someone will believe, but the number of such "believers" will steadily fall with each new month of the war.

It cannot be excluded that Putin will officially declare Ukraine war and introduce martial law in Russia, thus pushing the date of the presidential election. And if someone thinks that this probable course will continue his power, this is not true.

Such a step of Putin will only accelerate the collapse of his own political regime, because he will clearly demonstrate the failure of the so -called special operation, and then the question will be: why did you start an operation that you can't finish? And if you can't finish it, then you are old and you are going to rest. Today, many talk about Putin's potential successors. There are versions that the same Dmitry Patrushev or Denis Manturov may be more stringent rulers than Putin himself.

But we do not take into account the factor that these people will open their true face when they realize that Vladimir Putin has lost all levers of influence, all the power that has concentrated in his hands for decades. And it is likely that this is the true face of the new political elite of Russia will be more pragmatic and directed to the West than in the delirium of Alexander Nevsky, NATO at the gate of Russia and the danger of Bandera.