Putin's oil bottom. As the price of oil will affect Russia

At least this is calculated by the EU countries, which since December 5 have put into operation the embargo on Russian tanker oil (the import of Russian oil pipeline "Druzhba" is stored - about 10% of the volumes previously imported from the Russian Federation). Only Bulgaria, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are allowed to buy Russian raw materials, since they are still in search of alternative methods of oil supply.

"Prior to the war of Russia in Ukraine, the European Union depended on exports of Russian oil. In 2021, the EU imported raw oil and petroleum products from Russia worth $ 74. 8 billion," Aljazeera writes. The International Energy Agency predicts that Russia may have difficulty in finding new markets for its oil due to the existing European embargo.

Oil production in the Russian Federation can fall by almost 2 million barrels a day by the end of March compared to the pre -war level and, on average, will be only 9. 6 million barrels a day in 2023. According to Maxim Bilyavsky, a leading expert of the Razumkov Energy Programs, the Russian budget may lose up to $ 50 billion, but will try to maintain a $ 45 billion profit from the supply of oil to the Asian-Pacific.

"However, even to achieve such a profit of the aggressor will have to make a large array. First of all, a portfolio of long-term contracts, which is empty today, because many consumers are afraid of sanctions. Second, unlock the capacity currently staffed by only 80%.

At the same time, the majority of the fleet is illiquid transport vessels, which in the event of their further operation without proper repair can lead to various consequences, including uncontrolled oil spills, "Maxim Bilyavsky said. In EU countries, there have long been preparing for the full abandonment of Russian oil - where oil refineries are already replacing Russian oil with Norwegian, Saudi, British and American oil.

For example, in early August, the first tanker with American oil arrived in the German port of Rostock, writes Reuters. Maxim Bilyavsky is convinced that the replacement of Russian oil in the context of the EU market will be fully. "Among the EU exporting countries are and will be Saudi Arabia, Norway, Brazil, Iraq, Kazakhstan. I want to note that new players in the EU market appeared in 2022, including Angola-now 0. 2 million is coming from this country Barrels a day. This volume will grow.

It is likely that oil will come from Venezuela too. In general, it is not necessary to wait for the lack of oil, " - the expert notes. Russia itself is now forced to constantly search for the opportunity to get rid of oil extracted, in particular through concluding contracts with buyers from Asia. Russia's losses from embargo on its oil in the EU will definitely be, although the Russian Federation will try to sell these volumes in the Asia countries.

Economist, member of the Ukrainian Society of Financial Analysts Vitaliy Shapran says that the result of the recently introduced EU embargo on Russian oil will be a situation where Russia will simply not be selling 30-40% of oil produced. In such a situation, the Kremlin will look hard for new markets, and will hope for the sale of its oil to China.

"China in 2021 bought 70 million tons, the maximum that they can buy in 2022, which is about 100 million tons, the total export of the Russian Federation is 230 million tons. So 30-40% of currency proceeds will not be. will try to take oil to India, but the tankers from the Baltic Sea to the Indian Ocean have grown in price for a month from 10 to 15 million. So new sales are quite difficult thing, it is limited by the solvency of the buyer and logistics.

Now they are trying to expand the capacity Oil pipelines in the PRC, but this process will not be fast, " - said Vitaliy Shapran. On the same day, on December 5, when the embargo on the import of oil from the Russian Federation to Europe, G7 and Australia signed an agreement on the marginal price of Russian oil at $ 60 dollars/barrel.

The bottom line is that now that insurance companies and other companies that need to be shipped will be able to deal with Russian oil only if the oil price is at a level or lower than the specified ceiling. "Most insurers are in the EU or the United Kingdom, and they may need a restriction," AP News writes. The $ 60 ceiling did not reflect the expectations of Ukraine and a number of its partners.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that he considers such a decision a non -serious and weak position. In his opinion, if the price limits of the Russian Federation will be $ 60 instead of thirty and thirty, which Poland and the Baltic countries spoke, then the Russian budget will receive about $ 100 billion in the year. Focus experts also believe that the ceiling of Russian oil prices should be made below. "Optimally-$ 30-40 in the long run. While the project has just started.

Now the Russians are faced with a choice of $ 63. 85 (market price Urals at 12:00 in Kiev on December 5) or agree to $ 60 and increase volumes. If they They will not agree, then 30-40% of oil, which is about 80 million tons a year, will need to either pour or preserve wells. When the market will be trained to a new price guidance and if the Russians continue to threaten security in the region, I think our partners without The hesitation can move to the $ 40 and then $ 30, "Vitaliy Shapran said.

According to Maxim Bilyavsky, the median prices for Russian oil in the last ten years are $ 69. 54 per barrel, which is only 14% higher than the countries set by countries. "The ceiling for Russian oil should be at $ 35 per barrel. During the second half of November, the actual price of Russian oil sales was $ 52 a barrel, which is 13% less than the established ceiling. Yes, the next week indicated Russian Urals - will grow and pick up the ceiling .

$ 60 per barrel, which will lead to minimal losses for the budget of the aggressor state at 1% of GDP, "Bilyavsky says. According to the expert, the G7 should be prepared for the implementation of the radical scenario, namely, reducing the price restriction to $ 30-35/barrel. "This will lead to an aggressor state budget deficit at 5-7% and reduce the revenue by $ 90 billion," Maxim Bilyavsky said.

In Russia itself, of course, the G7 countries' decisions on the price of prices are dissatisfied and have already stated the preparation of a decision on a complete ban on the sale of oil in countries that supported the price ceiling, in particular through intermediaries. Most likely, Russia will try to provoke a shortage in the oil market so that prices are jumped, and then sell its volumes bypassing sanctions, perhaps, according to ready -made gray schemes.

"Buyers in China and India may disagree with restriction, while Russia or China can try to create their own insurance companies to replace those forbidden in the US, the United Kingdom and Europe. Russia can also sell oil informally using tankers" " Dark fleet "with incomprehensible owners, as Venezuela and Iran do. Oil can be pumped from one ship to another and mixed with oil of similar quality to hide its origin, " - writes AP News.

If someone buys billions of dollars, at the purchase stage, if possible, then block the accounts of such a buyer, then the mechanism will work. If there is a persecution of violators of sanctions, it will be possible to say that they are working, " - said in a comment on the focus an expert of the Institute of Energy Strategies Yuriy Korolchuk.

In fact, much depends a lot on the desire and capabilities of Western countries to stop illegal purchase schemes : It is important to impose criminal penalties for bypassing sanctions. As for the impact of prices of Russian oil on the overall price situation in the oil market, a sharp jump in prices is expected first due to uncertainty due to the marginal price.