Lukashenko broke up. He was armed with his ministers

Why is it so? Manual regulation, which is omitted to the level of government and regional executive committee, will even be late in a critical situation. The cause of the old is the problem of quality of middle -level performers. Next - easier. Manufacturers during the rise in prices for equipment (even for agriculture - fertilizers, feed, etc. ) can (more precisely, with a probability of 90%) to face a fall in profitability.

To redeem? Even if so - how to give a loan with zero or negative profitability? Further new state credit already under the printing machine. Goodbye to the Ministry of Finance and the National Bank to improve the financial system. Subsidation requires money that will be taken from exporters. But the money supply increases and this pressure on the course, not to mention the direct prerequisite for inflation in the form of empty money. So again multiple courses.

Against this background, importers limit supply to a minimum or close. National manufacturers reduce shipment to the domestic market (of course, you need to be a cretin to work minus if there is an alternative). The goods becomes less (not immediately-in 4-5 months) and "leave norms" are introduced against this background. That is, the situation of the late USSR is created, which led to the collapse of the scoop.

But, unlike the late 80's, even under authoritarianism, government officials openly opposed the game. There are several reasons. The part (as, for example, Golovchenko from the State Procedure) sees tremendous problems for his "industry. The part of the business sees the problem of the same business. And they all see a situation where they will be rinsed for the logical and predictable results of today's game.

At the same time, in the conditions, they will be unable to do something for work with zero, so that not negative efficiency. And here we rest on the question of loyalty. In the heads of a number of executors of the highest link, the phrase: "This is full of madness. " And persistently with the prospects of your own problems. After all, Lukashenko never confesses in mistakes, but seeks guilty, enemies, tsaps. It is difficult to plug.

Therefore, in a month and a half, when the negative dynamics becomes apparent, Lukashenko will try to return to his senses. You look, and some positive news will come that stabilize his emotional state. If not, they will start thinking about how good it would be for other schedules. In autocracy, it is a direct risk to the "portrait hero and orgasm of court propagandists. " History knows many examples of different options for palace coups.

Starting from transit licing (on advice) to tragedy, accident, sudden health problems. Although, in the previous paragraph, if "may need to be clarified. Even if it is possible to roll back, the opinion of positives for other approaches will already strengthen. In fact, after a long trip to Putin and a future new difficult visit and additional problems, Lukashenko began to destroy his own power. For the first time in a long time, its decision is even the worst option for him.

Not to mention the system or country. And Lukashenko's opponents begin almost the ideal option. Lukashenko becomes toxic. Its opponents (more precisely the dialogue with them) is a key condition for most external players to get out of the spiral of the conflict. That is, you can "start dialogue", solve the problem of Lukashenko (you can in another sequence), leave control of the situation, launching especially public opponents in part of the authorities.