The Kremlin doubles the ponds. Why is such an important battle for Kherson for Ukraine

Lawrence Friedman Honored Professor of Military Research Royal College London Lawrence Friedman: Putin is betting on an economic crisis that will lead to political upheaval in Europe (photo: Reuters) after a period when the fight seemed to be a dead end. In the dynamic period, in my recent materials, I argued that the war with Russia had shifted in favor of Ukraine.

This is due to the fact that Russia is difficult to replace lost military equipment and recruit more people for the front, while Ukraine has advantages from the influx of modern Western weapons. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov praised his "artillerymen" for "very accurate use of HIMARS rod systems - they work as a surgeon with a scalpel.

" In recent weeks, these artillerymen have successfully attacked more than a hundred strategically important goals, in particular, according to the Pentagon representative, Russian command points, ammunition depots, air defense facilities, radar nodes and communications units, positions of far artillery. In response, the Russian military said that the elimination of HIMARS and other extensive artillery systems is a priority.

But these efforts, despite Moscow's periodic statements about the opposite, have not yet been successful. They were prevented by at least the ability of these systems to "shoot and run" (to go from their firing positions in minutes).

This Pentagon representative also noted that Russia has sent almost 85% of its armed forces to the war in Ukraine, which means that its armed forces will gradually be unable to fulfill other tasks to protect their borders and support the goals of Russian foreign policy around the world. She spent many of her "advanced" ammunition and therefore relied on primitive opportunities. Therefore, they make less precise strokes, even if they have intelligence to direct them.

Although the scope of Russian losses is still being built on many assumptions and assumptions, they were undoubtedly significant, in particular among officers of all levels, which led to the fact that the command was difficult to cope with the situation. The intensity of Russian operations decreased.

Artillery - a working horse of the Russian campaign, but the number of artillery shelling, which reached 20,000 shots a day in the midst of fighting for Severodonetsk in Lugansk, has now decreased significantly. The battalion commander informed the journalist The Washington Rost that after shelling of the ammunition in Izium near Kharkov, the shelling became "ten times less" than before.

The problem that Russia now faces is not the lack of artillery tools or ammunition stocks, but in the supply lines between them, which are weakened because the advanced ammunition compositions are either lost or become clearly vulnerable. With more precision Ukrainian systems that reach the front lines, Russian artillerymen will have to burst if they are not able to shoot and then run quickly enough. Under these new conditions, there was a corresponding decrease in the rate of Ukrainian losses.