That stands for partial mobilization in

Sergei Fursa Columnist, Investment Banner Is it important what Russia has declared mobilization? Yes, it's important. How many memes do not create, but you should also not forget that these are problems. No matter how important it is not to be afraid of the enemy, but always a bad idea to throw him with hats. Video of the day is both a manifestation of "panic" and the statement of the fact that Putin loses war and the problem for Ukraine. Yes, at the same time.

Because that there was no, we knew that Putin would lose the war. And now he loses it, but also suits hysterics. It's like a drunken big grandfather who will definitely end the evening in a bucizar, but before that can break a lot and break the nose for those who will knit it. So it's unpleasant. It's bad news. Whatever cool. And paradoxically, it is bad and not terrible news. Because it is not catastrophic. Unpleasant. Bad. But it is not exactly accompanied by the feelings that were in late February.

Yes, many military experts say that Russia is currently a lack of weapons. And it's true. There will be difficulties in learning these people. And it is also true. Will it increase the number of people running away from Russia? Yes, but at the same time, 70% of Russians have no foreign passport, and these Russians will not escape anywhere and it is exactly what Putin expects. Is it not popular in Russia? Yes, but we do not expect that it will immediately lead to a revolution.

Yes, in the Russian army everything is bad with corruption and they are logistical ailments. But this only reduces the effectiveness of any steps, but does not do them. One way or another, it will increase the capabilities of the Russians at the front after a certain time. Not soon, but will increase. We do not know how much it will increase. But we know what will increase. It will not be tomorrow. It will be in a few months. But there will be.

Why did it happen? Putin did not want to mobilize until the last. And he dragged this moment as he could. And here in the Avral mode of the referendum in three days (sorry that they did not say that they took place last weekend in secrecy), mobilization and that's all this. What happened? Putin has received negative messages from China and India in recent days.

And in general, every Asian dictator, who has previously bowed before Putin, now uses the moment to humiliate Putin and hint that it is time to tie it. Erdogan threw Putin out of the Caucasus. Even Kazakhstan and Armenia (as well as Turkey and Vietnam) refused to accept Russian Mir cards. How does Putin answer this? Again, with only one known way to him - raising the ponds. And quite emotional lift.

Because it was all from his knees and very quickly, as if he were stinging into the ass something in Samarkand. Russia always does so. Putin always does so, because this is always what bandits do. The only known method is raising the ponds. And we saw the mobilization. And new nuclear blackmail. Who already scares. Because Putin takes emotional steps against the background of defeat, and therefore does not have a scary look, but a pathetic smile. What's next? Further, it is unknown, by the way.

Because again, we do not know whether Putin wants to unwind this flywheel in full, whether to simulate certain processes to satisfy both the internal party of war, and to frighten the West and Ukraine. Let's see. One way or another, mobilization will definitely not be popular in Russia. It is no longer. Putin announced only partial mobilization. Or because it leaves the opportunity to raise the rates in the future. Or because he wants less disturbance and panic in Russian society.

Or because he wants to simulate mobilization. On the example of Ukraine we see that mobilization goes parts, in steps, stages. And it is in no way called partial. Therefore, like much in Russia, this mobilization can be fake, PR mobilization. Which is needed to make Putin show power and satisfy the war party for which he began to seem a weak. Putin cannot afford to seem weak. Because they will eat immediately. And in Samarkand, he looks like a slack. And he needed something to compensate for.

Why can it be mobilization half a cone? Because Putin not just tightened and postponed the mobilization. He knows the Russian people much better than us. And he understands that true mobilization will be unpopular. At the same time, his economic block explained to him what true mobilization threatens to the economy. Moreover, in the modern world it is impossible to rearrange the country "on military rails", it does not work so.

At that time, only North Korea has a little, because of the lack of technology. And the example of the Soviet Union is not relevant, especially now, Land League is not working on Putin. Can he hide more large -scale mobilization? Maybe. Theoretically. Because for him the main thing is to preserve power. And he, if he feels a threat to himself, can put on the Kon and the Russian economy. We do not know which versions are true. In some case, the damage will be larger, in some less.

It accelerates destructive processes in Russia for a long time. Medium -term creates problems for Ukraine. In the short term, it does not matter at all. But he pleases that he has lost psychologically. His steps, his terrible grimaces, are no longer frightened. And we feel it in Ukraine. But they also feel it in Russia, where the only place in the world where panic has occurred. This will be felt by financiers. Generals will feel it. And this is felt by Putin soldiers.