New Europe. What are the opportunities of Ukraine and the Russian Federation's war to Central and Eastern Europe

The wars change traditional political, economic, cultural, and generally all established structures. It has always been that since humanity remembers itself. Questions in localization and scaling. Of course, the war between the two feudal lords concerned only the range of their existence. However, civilizational, total wars can completely change the existing state of affairs when the phrase "the world will no longer be as it" devoid of any pathos and most accurately reflects reality.

So the Battle of Poitier, when the Franks saved Europe from the Arab invasion in 732, divided the history of "before" and "after". It was after this war that the medieval Europe appeared, which we know - with castles, knights and feuds. The last great war that influenced the world lifestyle was the Second World War. She, among other things, established the order of inadmissibility of the rude violence of one state against another simply because the first is stronger.

Of course, the rules are exceptions for them, but at least in Europe, peace has been established for decades. The wars around the world continued, but they were reformatted into battle for political influence, not the seizure of territories with new empires. Actually, after the Second World War, no such case had taken place until 2014.

Paradoxically, it is the Russian Federation that is so proud of the victory in the Second World War that, in fact, negates its main achievement, at least in the opinion of the civilized world. The paradox of World War II was that one of its main beneficiaries was . . . Germany. The fact is that the rational (mercantile) causes of both world wars were the dissatisfaction of Germany with its position.

According to technological and intellectual potential, it was on par with the then "workshop of the world"-the United Kingdom, but it was political factors that did not allow it to be implemented. Germany is banally late for the colonial division of the world. An important result of the Second World War was the dominance of freedom, including economic and "soft power", which eventually overcame the Communist Bloc.

In such circumstances, in essence, the free competition of Germany, and then united Germany was able to fully realize its potential. It became the largest economy of Europe and the center of gravity of the continent, which was not for the first time in its history. From the East, Germany received energy and cheap labor, and west and south sold its products, earning a difference. The scheme of German -centric Europe at the end of XX - early XXI centuries is simplified and schematically.

Overcoming a hundred years of misunderstandings and united with France, the Germans were able to displace their main competitor in the UK's main competitor. The rest was coated with financial instruments - loans, grants, infrastructure projects and other soft power elements.

In the face of "end of history", when at least the world had to become entrenched on the European continent without wars and political upheavals, where the economy based on the culture of benefits and consumption was to be the dominant factor, nothing could threaten the further prosperity and domination of Berlin-Paris Tandem.

The Russian-Ukrainian war has put an end to a number of systems and models of social existence that have developed in Europe in recent decades: such a formulation of the question is jeopardized at all the idea of ​​free and global trade in the near future, because it is much more reliable to trade with politically friendly countries, which It means the return of regulation and the fact of becoming a state management of the economy, if not operational, at the strategic level.

Now no one else allows you to buy strategically important resources from a unfriendly country because it is so profitable than business. Previously, the key issues of the EU's agenda was the Mediterranean and Atlantic cooperation, in which Eastern Europe was similar to the accumulation of poor relatives in the last car, now the situation has turned to all 180 degrees.

Now Poland, from a country -like country, which was constantly falling out of the European summons, which was even imposed on disobedience, has become a key hub of refugee and weapons around the war -wrapped in the war of Ukraine. In the worldview, Poland from Marginal turned into a prophet whose voice was not heard on time. After all, Warsaw was one of the main opponents of the pacification of the aggressor.

After the UK withdrawal from the EU, the only major economies opposed cooperation with the Russian Federation. The aggression of the Russian Federation, which was initially manifested in the annexation of Crimea and then in the occupation of the Donbass, became not just an alarming bell, but a real acquisition that there is a public order under threat. However, neither in Berlin nor in Paris he was heard.

In the end, Paris and Berlin grew a monster, which can put an end to their dominance on the European continent. And now Eastern European countries shout in all voice that they have not been heard on time. The British edition of The Economist calls the current state of Poland's relations with Germany the worst of modern history. "Trust between our countries is at the lowest level," Ambassador of Germany said in Poland, Arndt Freitag von Lringhoven, who left his post in June in an interview.

At the same time, according to the newspaper, Poland President Andrzej Duda, whom the leaders of France and Germany did not bring with them to Kiev for a fateful meeting with Zelensky, equated their "telephone diplomacy" with Putin with an attempt to "reconcile" Hitler on the eve of World War II.

Eoine Drea - a political analyst, writer and senior researcher at the Vilfrida Martens Center - believes that the geopolitical miss of Germany and France, who ignored the threat to the side of the Russian Federation, will significantly reduce their authority in the future, which will contribute to the greatest way. Eastern Europe and the sixth in the EU.

"As the war increased existing tensions in relations with Brussels, Warsaw hastened to use its leadership, defending Ukraine to expand the discussion about the future strategic direction of the EU. The vision of the current Polish government of the future EU is what Polish Prime Minister Mattheus is" The unity of strong, equal and free nations "remains a direct call for the vision of the integration of Paris, Berlin and Brussels," - said Eoin Drea.

Now Poland has every chance of becoming the leader of New Europe and may even move France with Germany from the throne. This will be especially real in the case of a full victory of Ukraine. Although Hungary's demarche was virtually destroyed as a lobbying formation of the Visegrad Four (Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary), a much more powerful union of the Seure could be formed in its place.

From Sweden and Finland to Bulgaria with the United Kingdom and Ukraine, which will support the Union from the outside. It is important here to be loyalty to London of the Scandinavian states, and the Baltic countries and Western Slavs have long been rallied in a joint unwillingness to restore the colonial past.

Hannes Nagel, the head of the Crisis Research Center (Estonia), emphasizes that the key principle of the new formation should be the equality of all its members, otherwise it will be little different from the fact that earlier the countries of Eastern Europe offered the Russian Federation. Luke Ivan Dzhukich is a graduate student of the Slavic and Eastern European Studies of the University College of London emphasizes that it is understood in Warsaw.

The expert reminds that in the 1950s, the Gedroyts doctrine emerged in the Polish geopolitical strategy. Its essence was that Poland should accept its borders defined by the Second World War. Abandon imperial encroachments and establish the most friendly relationships with their oriental neighbors. In fact, to do what the Russian Federation has not done. Of course, not everything is so smooth.

Although clearly pro -Russian (but still without going beyond) the position is only Hungary, public opinion in Romania and Bulgaria, to put it mildly, ambiguous. Together with Serbia, they can form a powerful counterweight. The battle for the minds of the citizens of these countries is still ahead. It is clear that Paris and Berlin will simply not seem. In their hands enormous resource. Eoine Drea points to the giant economic potential of Germany and France.

This should be added to the actual control over the European Central Bank, and together with Italy - and over the main European institutions. Southern Europe guarantees the possibility of access to Africa with its resources (oil, gas, other minerals), but also with problems, too (migrants, smugglers, terrorists). There is Latin America with which Spain, Portugal, Italy have close contacts. Berlin and Paris work in these areas.

While the war is ongoing, power European structures prefer to declare a record high level of consolidation. However, expert votes are becoming more loud with that not everything is so clearly in the European House. Despite the mentioned Economist, the differences in the worldview (mainly it concerns the views on the response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine) are already spoken by German leading publications and American experts.

Thus, Deutsche Welle Observer Frank Hoffman believes that constant delay and inhibition of weapons supplies to Ukraine on the side of Germany increases the fall of trust in Berlin among EU Member States in Eastern Europe. And this already exacerbates the outlook between them and Berlin and can eventually lead to the destruction of the current security architecture and the final split of Europe, according to Judy Dempsi, editor -in -chief of Strategic European and Carnegie European Researcher.

After all, for the countries of Eastern Europe, the confrontation between the Russian Federation is a matter of life and death, while German and French elites are trying to leave the way to restore pre -war cooperation with Russian business. Much depends on the results of the war. However, the formation of the interior is too advantageous to Anglo -Saxons. And these people can do harshly with their hair.

It was mastered in Paris by AUKUS, when the US and the United Kingdom have severely moved France in the Pacific. Then Paris lost a contract for submarine production of tens of billion euros. In all these directions, the watershed between "Old" and "new" Europe is crystallized. And not only in relation to the Russian Federation. In fact, almost all key geopolitical points will now need to be coordinated with Eastern Europe.

This is now in the main war, but the situation with the same Taiwan shows that over time, the topics of such issues will be expanded. Of course, nothing has been determined. Now there is a struggle for what the world will be after the war, and the rates are as high as possible. In the truest sense - life. But Europe is waiting for a great redistribution, and which it will be solved right now. It will not work out here. States who have not yet decided will have to make their choice sooner or later.