The biggest player. Prices for gasoline, a dollar exchange rate and a point of growth for Ukraine - as an OKKO network earns during the war

Vasily Danilyak and Andriy Onistrat (photo: Screenshot YouTube-Canal "Begush Bank") What does the fuel market look like during the war, why gasoline did not rise in price after the next devaluation of the hryvnia, how many people left Kiev and how much they returned when the war is over. Stories of the OKKO toplesser. The author and presenter of the Begush Bank's YouTube channel Andriy Onistrat took a great interview with Vice President of OKKO fuel network Vasyl Danylak.

HV business chose the most interesting and adapted for the text version. Why the gas stations did not increase after the dollar's official exchange rate increased from June to today, we see the fall in oil prices in the world markets: an average of $ 350 - for a tonne of gasoline, $ 330 - diesel. Due to the increase in the exchange rate, the price rise should be - plus $ 430 per ton. And in general, the price would have to rise by $ 80. But large operators have large deliveries.

And we understand that Platts (the indicator of prices in the world. - Ed. ) Will further fall. Therefore, in principle, diesel [we] do not want to revise the price. There may be a slight lift on gasoline, because gasoline is now deficit.

Why the gasoline can be increased by the approximate balance of the oil product market in July as follows: all operators will bring 570 thousand tons of diesel fuel, 120 thousand tons of gasoline, and about 80 thousand tons of liquefied gas (another 20,000 tons will produce in Ukraine). Gasoline is a little enough. Why? Our great supplier is Romania. In Romania and Poland, a seasonal surge in consumption, people go on vacations, travel.

Secondly, a month ago in Austria at the OMV factory there was a fire, the repair will last until October. And in fact, the OMV plant in Romania, which could send free resources to Ukraine, began to send them to Austria. Similarly - Slovnaft plant in Slovakia. Accordingly, we have a small vacuum. And it is because of the shortage, not because of the price in the world market, that gasoline prices can be slightly raised. Diesel is hardly.

As the fuel market for the war in 2021, Ukraine consumed 12 million tons of petroleum products. Of these, 2. 5 million tons were produced in Ukraine - mainly Kremenchuk and very little shebeline. And 9. 5 million tons - pure imports. From it 7 million - diesel. It was about 37% from Belarus, 35% from Russia, 10% from Lithuania. Small parties came from different countries through the ports of the Black Sea - from Romania, Bulgaria, Israel, Greece.

The average arrival from the pipe or from the factory to our oil depot - 7–10 days. The 92nd gasoline was 100% imported from Belarus. 95th: 75%-from Belarus, 28%-from Lithuania through the territory of Belarus. And 2% are very episodic things, Hungary or Slovakia. What has changed and as a result of a deficit if you imagine Ukraine as a quadrilateral, in fact, three parties were completely closed to the oil of the petroleum products. The opportunity to import was only through the western borders.

We responded quickly, raised all the contacts. At that moment we had a good financial position, some unrealistic amounts paid in advance - more than $ 100 million in 20 days. And while the product was driving, all the remains (about 90,000 tons at the beginning of the war) began to fall, consumption jumped. March we went on the remains. And in April, one product has not yet come, and the other began to end. So, since April, problems at the gas station began.

Who else imported fuel? Most of all - OKKO, WOG, UPG, KLO, Alliance Energotrade is the largest Bitumen supplier to Ukraine. They were reoriented to diesel. The former Privat group was surprisingly taken, until they bombed the Kremenchug Refinery. In July, they are already visible. It turns out that the country can be fuel even from the western borders. And this is a very cool story. [But] the market was somewhere 40%.

The industry and the market are waiting for a very difficult time - wars for market share. If Privat had 22%before the war, and now - 15%, then it will not agree, obviously, it will be taken away. Companies such as Shell, Amic, too. During the war, we have grown in the market share, probably we, WOG and UPG. All the rest - lost. We still do not know how many gas stations and oil depots of OKKO. Clearly broken - on the turn on the pushes of water and to Irpin, another - in the Nikolaev area.

We understand that [broken] the lion's part of the five Mariupol gas stations. The damaged part of Kharkiv gas stations - there are only 27 stations there. In total, we have 426 stations and operating activities excluded about 33, which have different status. It is impossible to repair them and dangerously, and sometimes there is no one to work. Kherson, Melitopol, Berdyansk - under occupation. In Donetsk and Luhansk regions - a couple of pieces. We resumed all the rest. As for oil depots.

In March we were destroyed by oil depot in Chernyakhov, Zhytomyr region and Lviv oil depot. In addition, we have a large oil depot and a transshipment in Kherson under the occupation. In Kherson, a company from Crimea also came to our gas stations, Shell, I don't know if WOG, just came and said: everything is ours now, we work. In general, the country is unknown. We have 18 oil depots, two of them were broken and one occupied.