Kherson and the Kremlin's decision. That will determine the further course of war

Immediately I will express the caveat: now it is unusual to talk about the consequences of an event that has not yet happened and the character of which is still unknown. It is only possible to focus on what means for Russia the maintenance of occupied Kherson region and what goals at this stage of the war are important for Ukraine.

Video Day occupied Kherson region, in particular, the right bank of the Dnieper is important to the Russians as: the territory from where they can continue attacks towards Nikolaev/Odessa and Kryvyi Rih/South Ukrainian NPP.

At the same time, it is also an area in which the Russians find themselves in front of an unpleasant dilemma: to protect the occupied Crimea with conventional weapons or to use weapons of mass destruction with all related risks (complete economic and humanitarian isolation from the world, worse than the DPRK, continuation of the war).

If briefly, it is the collapse of the entire reign of Putin's 20-year-old and his clicks, when the outlines of a new "vague time" from hypothetical will turn into a serious political risk. Understanding this, the Kremlin demands that the soldiers do everything to prevent it and eliminate this threat, especially after successful actions of the Ukrainian defense and resistance forces in occupied Crimea.

But Russian generals, like any bureaucrats in the despotic system, want the ruler to choose and make the decision they will then perform. In order for Putin to order either to restore the offensive in Kherson region, or to double the effort in another direction and to force Ukrainian troops to defend, not to attack.

Thus, the Kremlin for the third time (after the decision to invade and the decision to conquer the Lugansk and Donetsk region) should make a decision that will determine the further course of the war. To do this, the Kremlin will need knowledge of the plans of allies of Ukraine, the United States and key European states as accurately as possible.

Will Ukraine be provided with sufficient counterattack in the fall? That is, is the West ready to invest in a serious military defeat of Russia in the south? If so, then Putin will try again by his old logic to "hit the first" there, to order their generals to correct the situation of Russian troops of topics, where it is most shaky.

If not, the war will continue on the plan: a slow offensive in the Donbass, missile shelling of Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure will continue in order to destroy the economy and disruption of preparation for the winter, the energy blackmail of Europe, undermined political stability in EU countries. Probably the worst for the Kremlin news, from this point of view, can be a very skip message for the press, following the results of a new meeting in Ramstein format in early September.

If the event decides to invest in a decisive victory of Ukraine the necessary amount and quality of weapons, no one will trub. On the contrary, a wave of "telephone diplomacy" will begin: Mr. /Gerr/M (M (M (M (M (M (M (M (M (M (M (Mi. ev Gorbachev said, when he removed troops from a neighboring country, having been defeated. For Ukraine, the situation is quite different.

First, the Ukrainian army and the higher military leadership are not slaves and have the opportunity to act as it requires the art of war, not a one person. This guarantees victory, although no one will name the release of cities, direction of the offensive, or the exact number of the destroyed enemy. Let the Russian Ministry of Gestures do this.

Secondly, even the most optimistic result of September and subsequent meetings of Ramstin and the complete ban on Schengen visas does not guarantee the end of the war on the conditions desired for Ukraine. It must be kept in mind that NATO seeks the war to go beyond our country. Therefore, almost everyone but us and our most loyal allies will arrange peace, even if it does not restore all our state borders. Third, a painful process of adaptation to war is ongoing in Ukrainian society.

There is no requirement to complete the war under the Christmas tree, most are ready to endure material difficulty for freedom, almost 90% of Ukrainians see their future in their country despite the war. The authorities should understand their mistakes at the end of last year and think not of the prospect of the first post -war elections, but to work for the sake of preserving the state, democracy and trust of the main allies in the conditions of a long war.