Baiden's weapon against Putin's threats. What to wait for Ukraine after February 21

It is a traditional event, which is recorded in the Constitution of the Russian Federation. Taking into account the tendency of the Russian dictator to symbolic dates, it can be predicted that the day of February 21 is not chosen by accident. A year ago, it was on this day that Putin told the Russians his vision of the history and paintings of today, thus forming the public casus belli to begin full -scale fighting in Ukraine.

Subsequently, the researchers found that it was on February 21 that Putin made a statement about the beginning, the so-called "special military operation" on the territory of Ukraine-it was indicated by meta-data video. It is worth noting that in 2022 the Russian president with a message to the federal assembly did not speak, officially explained it with a tense schedule.

Despite the statement of Putin's busy schedule, since the beginning of 2023, it has almost every week on the air of Russian TV. Each such speech must be emphasized that the country is on the right path, the situation in the economy is better than predicted, and "its" goes according to the plan.

"Everyone is waiting for the message, hoping to hear an assessment of what is happening, an assessment of a" special military operation ", an assessment of the international situation and the president's vision of how we cope with it and how we will develop further. This is, I think, most importantly, everyone is waiting , and most importantly, what the President will concentrate on, " - said the details of the future appeal by Putin's pressecretic Dmitry Peskov.

According to the experts of the focus, the Kremlin reminds the Russians every time that the decision to start a full-scale war in 2022 was correct, and the lack of any significant achievements is packed in the wrapper of "big goals". Despite the fact that Moscow is already beginning to understand the complete unpromisingness of further fighting in Ukraine.

At the same time, Kyiv managed to attract political support for the European Union leaders, and the issue of supplies of modern weapons has already been systematized. "There is a certain symbolism in these events, a year has passed, some statements, messages and vectors about the next development of the situation are needed. Especially for Putin you need to say something in the background of the absence of at least some success at the front.

The situation is somewhat determined, everyone understands that both are both The parties (Ukraine and the Russian Federation - focus) have forces and means for only one attempt on the offensive. According to the results of this offensive - or before its beginning, it is necessary to go to some decision, " - explains the political expert of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future of the Future POPOP.

According to Denis Moskalik's international policy coordinator of the International Policy Studies Center, Putin will be accused of the West and the United States on February 21 of Aggressive Policy and the reluctance to recognize the "legitimate interests" of Russia.

That is, the leader of the Russian Federation will criticize just what is the basis of Baiden's rhetoric and is on the path of realization of Moscow's aggressive plans - an active foreign policy of the United States, a course in defense of democratic countries, allies and partners of the United States, and confrontation of authoritarian regimes. Experts believe that you should not expect a sharp escalation on the front.

Both sides managed to formally report their intentions on the offensive and a further counter -offensive. However, the speaker of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces Yuri Ignat said that Russia would try to strike in Ukraine on February 24, but it is not necessary to exaggerate the threat. "There is no need to talk about a particularly dramatic situation. Yes, there will be exacerbations, there will be strokes, there is no doubt about what something will be. But we are ready.

Nobody will suddenly find us," Ignat said. US President Joe Biden will visit Poland for the second time in two years. Last year, at the end of March, he negotiated with President of Poland Andrzej Duda and met with the US military of the 82nd Airborne Division in Rzeszow. It is interesting that later Rzeszow was chosen by a transport hub, where Western logistical assistance to Ukraine is centralized.

According to John Kirby National Security Representative, this year, Biden will speak in Warsaw on February 21 with a speech on how the United States united the world to support the people of Ukraine that defends its freedom and democracy. Some signals of Putin and the entire Russian people were also announced. Political expert Igor Popov is convinced that these will be the signals of Russian elites before the change of state policy in the Russian Federation.

Talks about the International Tribunal are gaining more and more switching to the beginning of his work. Despite the fact that the process of creating a tribunal is long, it can be used as an argument for stimulating Russian elites, if not before issuing responsible for armed aggression, then to their change - with the subsequent way to dialogue with the new leaders of the Kremlin. "In the last weeks we see clear signals from the event.

If earlier President Zelensky stated that there would be no negotiations with Putin, and Western partners did not deny it - now there are some trends on changing politics in the Russian Federation. I think it can be said that it is possible Biden in Poland. It is clear that there is no interference in the internal affairs of another country, but probable signals for Russian elites - agree, through elections, or in some other way, change state policy, " - says the expert.

As a result of Biden's visit to Poland, certain decisions on weapons supply to Ukraine should be expected. But it is in the project of military-technical cooperation of Warsaw and Washington. Poland plays a key role in this policy because of its geopolitical position, accordingly, it is given extraordinary attention. Declarations should be expected for further steady support for Warsaw as a major component of the forces of Democratic Europe on the Eastern NATO Eastern flank.

In particular, this is relevant in the conditions of Poland's intentions to re -arry and significantly strengthen its own armed forces, active support of Ukraine when Poland is one of the main suppliers of weapons for the Armed Forces and the main transit hub for supply from other countries. "Warsaw supplies and intends to supply many weapons to Ukraine, while strengthening its armed forces, therefore, requires the support of the arms from the United States for Poland itself.

American" Abrams ", armored vehicles, air defense systems and planes should stand on the Eastern flank of NATO. the Polish army, ”the Moskalik explains. Recall that from 2022 the United States has already increased its military presence in Europe to 20 thousand military. This contingent is located, in particular, in Poland. In addition, President Duda has repeatedly stated that he would like to see more US military and equipment in his country.

Poland in 2017 began re-equipment of its own army, and over the next 15 years it is planned to renew the fighter aviation park, including the purchase of US fighter jets of McDonnell Douglas F-15 Eagle and light Korean FA-50. The government of the country has already stated that he was ready to transfer to Ukraine its modernized MiG-29. It is likely that after the negotiations of Duda with Biden, a joint decision on the F-16 will be reached.

Moreover, the Polish leadership has already stated that it does not have the required amount of its own F-16, but supports the departure of another type of fighter in the case of a joint decision of NATO members, Moskalik suggests that Baiden and Putin's statements should be expected first and foremost.