Kherson and Putin's imperial ambitions. About the decisive moment of war

Preparation for the great Ukrainian counter -offensive in the south of the country has been ongoing since May. After a few weeks of minor offensive on the outskirts of Kherson, during which the Ukrainian troops have released more than fifty cities and villages, now the feeling that Kherson's battle is about to begin. The victory of Ukraine will have enormous psychological and practical consequences for both parties.

This will demonstrate the international audience that the Ukrainian military is more than able to forcing Russia to retreat from well -fortified defensive positions and can persuade Ukraine partners to continue to provide it with military and financial support. Meanwhile, the defeat in Kherson would be humiliating personally for Vladimir Putin and would cause further demoralization in the ranks of his exhausted invasion forces. Kherson's fate will determine the further direction of war.

As the only regional capital, captured by Putin's troops, and the only major Ukrainian city on the western bank of the Dnieper, which is now in the Kremlin's hands, Kherson keeps the key to Russian ambitions in the south of Ukraine. Moscow must maintain control of Kherson in order to achieve his goal of promoting Odessa and the occupation of the entire Ukrainian Black Sea coast.

If Ukraine returns the city, then Russia will be limited to the Left Bank Ukraine and will face the prospect of further counter -offensives aimed at the complete displacement of the Putin army from the south of Ukraine. Ukraine is unlikely to throw everything on the total assault of Kherson.

Instead, the Ukrainian strategy is probably a gradual local offensive and point strikes in order to isolate Russian forces on the western bank of the Dnieper, cutting them off from supply and aiming at logistics. Since the beginning of July, the Ukrainian military has launched their enlarged arsenal of long -range artillery and high -precision HIMARS missile systems to destroy dozens of Russian command points and bases of ammunition supply in southern Ukraine.

Recently, Ukrainian forces attacked bridges across the Dnieper, which serve as a rescue circle for Putin troops in Kherson. Since then, Russia has launched an improvised ferry, indicating that the main bridge in Kherson itself is no longer capable of maintaining the movement of military transport. There is still controversy over the readiness of the Ukrainian army for a large counter -offensive.

Some international analysts say that a long pause would be better for additional preparation of recruits and integration of new weapons systems. Many Ukrainians also argue that their country's armed forces need significant additional weapons supply, including tanks and aircraft before they can really hope for successful offensive operations. However, there may be no free time.

Millions of Ukrainians now live in a Russian occupation, during which they have to deal with military crimes daily, including abductions, executions and violent deportation to the Russian Federation. Given the horrors that took place in the areas of northern Ukraine, liberated from the Russian occupation and which became the property of the public, no one has illusions about the scale of atrocities that are currently in the occupied south.

Putin made it clear that he was leading the war to destroy Ukraine. Every extra occupation day means new misery and suffering. Preparation for the Crimean -style referendums in the occupied south of Ukraine is also underway. Russia seeks to repeat a fierce vote organized during the military capture of the Ukrainian Peninsula in the spring of 2014 to create the visibility of the legitimacy of further annexation of the southern regions of Ukraine.

Although fake ballots will help to convince the international audience or change military realities, they can significantly impair the position of locals and allow Moscow to strengthen administrative control over the occupied regions. Meanwhile, the Russian military is actively strengthening the defense in anticipation of the future offensive of Ukraine.

The number of reports on the transfer of large groups of Russian troops from the current Main Fighting Theater in eastern Ukraine to the Southern Front is increasing. Although the exact figures are difficult to confirm, the size of these relocation indicates that Russia may plan to start its offensive at the Kherson Front. The longer Ukraine will delay, the more difficult the offensive will become. Ukraine desperately needs a new victory to activate hostilities.

The heroism of the country in the first month of hostilities caused the capture of the world that watches it, and convinced Western leaders that Ukraine is worthy of serious support. However, according to the Ukrainian victory in the battle for Kyiv, months of slow but steady advancement of Russia to the east. In the face of growing fatigue from Ukraine and the growth of international calls to compromise peace, it is important to demonstrate that Russia can still be defeated in the battlefield.

Talking about the approaching Ukrainian victory is definitely optimistic, but a big military breakthrough of such a pin is not unthinkable. Western officials believe that the Russian army has suffered severe losses in Ukraine and now from the forces that invaded the country on February 24, only visibility remained. According to recent estimates of US intelligence, more than 75,000 Russian soldiers were killed or injured in Ukraine.

Putin's army was already forced to retreat from the north of Ukraine and from the island of Snake, and Russian commanders are somewhat unconvincing to hide their shame, depicting this inconvenient departure as "goodwill gestures. " At the same time, Putin does not show any signs of desire to reduce the scale of his military goals. On the contrary, Kremlin officials are now openly talking about the capture of new Ukrainian territories and the overthrow of the Ukrainian government.

In June, the Russian dictator compared its invasion of Ukraine with the imperial conquests of Peter the Great in the eighteenth century and stated that he was carrying out a historical mission to "return" Russian lands. The loss of Kherson will be a devastating blow to these imperial ambitions, as well as exposes the crumpled reality, which is behind the long -term claims of Russia on the status of a military superpower.

The next Kherson battle is the event of unprecedented international importance. The result of this battle will determine the fate of Ukraine and the course of war. Russia's victory can open the way to conquering the Ukrainian Black Sea coast and full subordination of the country. If Ukraine wins, it can be the beginning of Vladimir Putin's dreams about the new Russian Empire. The translation of HB has an exclusive right to translate and publish Peter Dickinson.