The miscalculation of the event and the most important lesson of Russia's war against Ukraine

" It was about what NATO could help the Republic of Moldova and Georgia, whose sovereignty and stability are also threatened through Russia's aggressive plans, related to revenge not only in Ukraine but throughout the post -Soviet space. That is why the words of NATO Secretary General, confident, are indeed an important conclusion from the situation in the post -Soviet space, - writes Vitaliy Portnikov for Crimea.

On January 26 last year, a few weeks before Russia's attack on Ukraine, the same Jens Stoltenberg read NATO's proposals for security in the region that response to a well -known Russian document that requires NATO to refuse to expand and accept the former Soviet republics as the main "guarantee Safety of "Russia. NATO proposal was to withdraw Russian troops from the territory of the former Soviet republics.

"Russia should refrain from positioning force, aggressive rhetoric and malicious activity against allies and other countries. Efforts to resolve conflicts, ”the document said. In my opinion, the Kremlin's answer to these constructive proposals was an attack on Ukraine. Now we know that there was probably a coup in Moldova. It seems that Russia not only has not given up efforts to destabilize neighboring countries - it has intensified them.

I think she turned the war not even into a policy continuation, but to policy replacement. However, another must be recognized. For a long time, conflicts in the post -Soviet space were perceived by the West as conflicts in the post -Soviet backyard. What happened in Transnistria or Abkhazia was even with some relief: the Soviet Union could explode, turn into a "huge Yugoslavia" and it would be a real catastrophe.

And with small local conflicts, it is possible, this is a more problem of Russia than the event. Even when Russia not only occupied but also annexed Crimea, that is, simply trampled post -war international law, the position of the international community has not undergone obvious changes. In words, of course, sanctions were even enforced against Russia, intensified after the occupation of Donbass. But in fact, the conflict continued to remain post -Soviet.

And it remained the same even after Russia's attack on Ukraine on February 24 last year. Even after the emergence of that "Great Yugoslavia", which everyone was so afraid in the 1990s. "Great Yugoslavia" is already, and the conclusion is the same - the conflict should not go beyond the post -Soviet space, it is impossible to transform NATO countries to the conflict.

And this is probably what brings together both the most fierce supporters of Ukraine in the Alliance and those who are trying to stay away from the war. I think that this perception of even a great war as a post -Soviet conflict is what actually unites the event. Meanwhile, it is always, sure, there was a value conflict. It was the battle for the right of states to sovereignty, territorial integrity and the opportunity to determine their future independently.

And in this sense, the right of Ukraine or Moldova is strongly different from the right of Germany or Poland. If the civilized world does not learn this - perhaps the most important - the lesson of the war of Russia against Ukraine, then sooner or later, certainly, the war will spread to other territories. Yes, I fully assume that the war will not directly touch NATO countries.