There are two scenarios: a major offensive of the Russian Federation in Ukraine can start in April - the Ministry of Defense of Germany

The Kremlin counts on the attachment of Belarus to the invasion, but there are two scenarios of probable attack. This was reported by Neue Zürcher Zeitung with reference to internal analysis of the Department of Strategy and Operations of the Ministry of Defense of Germany. In the first scenario, Vladimir Putin aims to capture all Donbass, in the second - for the full occupation of Ukraine. Common to both is that attacks on critical infrastructure will remain an integral part of the war.

The purpose of the Russian Federation is to weaken the will of Ukrainians to resist and provoke a further escape to the EU in the first scenario of the German Defense Ministry of the German Defense Ministry suggests that Russia will start the offensive in April to fully capture the Donbass. At the same time, Oleksandr Lukashenko will place tens of thousands of Belarusian soldiers to disperse the Ukrainian forces.

However, the Ministry writes that the Belarusian invasion should not be expected because Lukashenko is afraid of "potentially internally destabilizing" consequences of the beginning of the war in Ukraine. If the Russian troops can completely capture the Donbas, the second part of the plan will go. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will begin to transform the occupied territories into a fortress cut by trenches and ramparts.

At the same time, Vladimir Putin will again offer Ukraine talks to show the international community interested in peace. Such statements of the Kremlin head will be aimed at undergoing the readiness of the international community to support Ukraine. According to Putin, the decisions through negotiation "would" doubt NATO's effectiveness as a global factor of order and warranty for Ukraine. " The second scenario involves the war on two fronts.

Russian troops will start an attack in the Donbass, and up to 70 thousand Belarusian soldiers will go from north to Kyiv. Meanwhile, Russian troops will go to the Polish border to cut off the supply of weapons to Ukraine. According to the authors of the article, the prerequisite for this scenario is the general mobilization in Russia. This is unlikely "for domestic political reasons".

However, there is more and more signs that the second wave of mobilization in Russia is inevitable until the beginning of 2023. We will remind, on December 24 analysts from the Institute of War Study wrote that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation can prepare the ground for a new offensive from the territory of Belarus in 2023. However, the Kremlin can specifically transfer personnel and combat equipment to Belarus within the framework of information and psychological special operation.