Hole in billions: how much is missing Ukraine for the army and to cover social expenditures

In the consensus forecast of Ukrainian experts and companies, which was published at the Center for Economic Strategy (CES) of Ukraine in financing during 2023, the estimates of the expected international assistance experts were rated during 2023, namely: Sorry, here you can see that the expected financial assistance from international partners barely overlaps the budget deficit and is absolutely not enough to cover all the need for financing.

Accordingly, this difference of about $ 11 billion should be covered or at the expense Increasing this financial assistance compared to expectations, or at the expense of other sources, "-commented the results of the consensus forecast Maria Repko, Deputy Director of CES.

Let us specify, consensus forecast is based on a survey of seven leading analytical teams-Dragon Capital, Concorde Capital, Morgan Stanley, ICU, Oxford Economics, Sense Bank and Institute for Economic Research and Political Consultations. During the online development of consensus forecast, the funding deficit was asked to comment on Sergei Marchenko, Minister of Finance of Ukraine. "The gap [gap] remains $ 10 billion.

I would prefer to follow this figure until there is no strict obligations on the part of our partners. How we can block it, is understanding, but again, it is not yet firm. As soon as we have a firm obligation on the part of our partners, we can say that this figure is smaller, " - said Sergey Marchenko. The minister added that in the presence of programs and materialization of those arrangements that are currently being conducted, this figure of $ 10 billion is completely easily overlapped.

Marchenko noted that last year the situation was much more complicated and unpredictable and the deficit was much higher in dollar equivalent, whereas now stability is more, the receipt of funds from partners is rhythmic and no special risks of non -ranking are expected. The probable financing of the budget deficit at the expense of issue, simply putting the money to the National Bank, in 2023 is not confirmed by both the NBU and the Ministry of Finance.

"We do everything possible together to prevent this from happening," said Sergey Nikolaychuk, Deputy Head of the National Bank, during the online meeting. We will remind, in 2022 the issue reached 400 billion UAH ($ 10. 9 billion at the NBU rate). It was for this amount that the National Bank bought state bonds during the year.

Summing up, it should be noted that in 2023 the authorities hope to cover the need for financing at the expense of international assistance and does not plan to put into operation a printing machine, thereby increasing the risks of acceleration of inflation. We will add that in addition to the tremendous deficit of the state budget, another negative consequence of the war for Ukraine is the rapid growth of government debt.

"The expectations of our economists we interviewed say that the average debt ratio of GDP in 2023 will reach 93%, which has not been in Ukraine for many years. But during the war it was unlikely Repco. According to the expert, the debt load would increase the receipt of assistance in the form of grants, which are provided, unlike loans, on an irreversible basis and therefore do not increase the amount of debt.

Achieving the ratio of a dangerous level to GDP is also due to the fact that the economy of Ukraine, due to the war in 2022, decreased by about 30%. Earlier, Focus wrote what GDP dynamics participants consensus expected in 2023 and when they predict the end of the war.