New mobilization in Russia. When will it begin and whether there will be protests

Recently, the news appeared that the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation has banned the departure of all servicemen from the country, including limited to service, Russians. The network published a corresponding decree sent to all border departments of Russia. A reliable document or not is difficult to say. Former State Duma MP Ilya Ponomarev doubts. He says that it is better for Putin to run some information campaign for disloyal people to leave.

And rumors that the borders are closed, let go to scare people. In the Kremlin, similar messages are called "information sabotage". "This is an ordinary information" Utka "," says Russian President Dmitry Peskov. He claims that the Russian military has repeatedly stated that the second wave of mobilization for war with Ukraine is not planned.

At the same time, Ukrainian experts are convinced that the Russian army needs reserves: for help mobilized Russia wants to fill the losses and create shock groups, to form reserves for them. All in order to try to seize new territories of Ukraine in some directions in February-March and to keep the already occupied, including land corridor in Crimea.

Military-political expert Alexander Musienko in The conversation with the focus notes that the Russian presidential decree of September 21 on the announcement of partial mobilization is still in place, and it has no limited period of validity. That is, within this decree it is possible to carry out mobilization in a hidden form for as long as it will be required. Musienko is sure: Yes, in fact, and happens.

She said that the mobilization seemed to be terminated, but Putin did not cancel the decree, - he says. - In order to say in a public plane that everything seems normal, the situation is controlled, and in non -public plane - to be able to call people by summons. Therefore, a new wave may be announced or not announced. Most likely - they do not need to declare loudly - why cause dissatisfaction and indignation.

I have doubts that Putin is ready to go out and declare mobilization, but there is no doubt that he allows it to be secretly right now. " Musienko notes. - The capacity of army landfills in Russia does not exceed about 200 thousand. They do not have time to study - there is not enough opportunities, so some amount of mobilized are prepared in Belarus.

There is also the question of whether there will be equipment and weapons for so many mobilized specialties: tankers, artillerymen, armored vehicles and more. I think the problems with the Russians also with this. While we see that the Russian military-industrial complex does not demonstrate any superior and does not produce a large number of weapons. There are also doubts that resources for equipment and proper provision of so many troops will be found.

Armade of people in battle will not throw in the battle at the same time. Can send several tens of thousands as it happens now. It affects how Ukrainian troops will grind and destroy them. ” Today, according to the statistics of the Ukrainian General Staff, several hundred Russian soldiers die every day. "Ukrainian military permanent ones study - prepare reserves, pass training abroad.

We repair our weapons, modernize, start producing shells of 152 mm, receive assistance from our international partners, constantly negotiate on the supply of highly efficient weapons, accurate, quality," - it adds Musienko. He suggests that by the end of winter - on the beginning of spring, Russian mobilized can end patience - they may dare to rebel and protest. During the so -called first stage of mobilization in Russia there were many indignant.

Some left the country, it is known about a million men who left the Russian Federation after declaring partial mobilization. Others - set fire to the military enlistment offices. Such cases are not only recorded in the fall, they are also known in January. Recently, in the village of Maggachi, the Amur region of the Russian Federation, an unknown smashed window and threw a bottle inside the building with an incendiary mixture. Before that, such an incident happened in the Bratsk Irkutsk region.

But, as Ilya Ponomarev says, most Russians are not known about such incidents at all. "The Kremlin makes every effort not to touch Moscow and St. Petersburg, as the most explosive regions," he says. "Russia prefers to take people from small cities and villages distant from the center, so that the number of mobilized is scattered in space, so that not It was noticeable how mass this process. And most importantly, that the coffins with the dead would also be distributed throughout Russia.

" "I think the protests will be the situation with mobilized, who are already fighting," Musienko says. "If these people are increasingly indignant that they are not provided with finances, they have bad form and equipment in winter, bad commanders and weapons. will cause an even greater protest mood. And we can expect that by the end of winter and early spring the situation will change.