The Russian Federation is trying to draw Belarus into the war and to "blow up" the Moldovan state - ISW

As it was reported, on February 23, the operational command "North" informed that Russian columns with military equipment without distinctive signs and personnel dressed in pixel, similar to the form of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, were moving near the Chernihiv region. The command stated that the purpose of counterfeit operations was to accuse Ukraine of violating the territorial integrity of the unnamed country. Analysts are convinced that it is about Belarus.

"The Kremlin can prepare false attacks to force Belarus before the war after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko of February 16 that Belarus will only join the war in the event of an attack from Ukraine," the report reads. It is noted that earlier, on February 21, the Defense Ministry of Belarus stated that Belarusian troops were watching the increase of Ukrainian forces near their borders.

However, ISW analysts believe that the attack of Belarus or Russia on the northern regions of Ukraine is extremely unlikely, at the same time Russia seeks to force Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko to act or accuse Ukraine of expanding the war to undermine the support of Kiev.

Another possible cause of provocations from the Russian Federation near the Chernihiv region is to force the Ukrainian forces to gain a foothold on the northern border to weaken the defense forces in the eastern direction and to prevent the preparation of the Armed Forces for the counter -offensive. A similar situation is observed in the unrecognized Transnistrian Moldavian Republic (PMR).

As the focus wrote earlier, on February 23, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation accused Kiev in plans to allegedly conduct an armed provocation against the PMR. According to the Russian defense department, the Armed Forces will allegedly dress in Russian and simulate the offensive of the Armed Forces of Russia from positions in Transnistria. On the same day, the Moldova government denied the statement of the MoD of Russia.

According to analysts, the Russian Federation probably sought to create a false narrative to distort the warning of President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky Moldova Moldova Maya Sandu that the Kremlin is preparing provocations in Moldova, and his proposal to help Moldova if Russian forces in Transnistria are threatened The integrity of Ukraine "the spread of this erroneous narrative does not indicate that Putin intends to attack Moldova.

- For which he does not have military potential - but points to the escalation of his continuing efforts from the undermining of the Moldovan state," - analysts say. We will remind, on February 23 the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Moldova stated that they consider statements to the Russian defense department with an element of psychological operation, not a real plan.

On February 9, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian intelligence has information about Moscow's plans to capture Moldova. The Head of State conveyed all the available data on the intentions of the Russian Federation to the President of Moldova Maya Sandu.