Two mobilization scenarios in the Russian Federation. What to prepare Ukraine in the event of the worst

All activists said that this decision could be contained, despite the fact that there were certain forces that intensively pushed the Kremlin to such. After this has already happened, in my opinion, there may be the following scenarios. Either our calculations that the Russians will finally begin to make the active resistance of mobilization justified or they are not justified.

If our calculations are incorrect, and the Russians will go as those rams for conversations (still, those 300 thousand will be dumped, albeit, not immediately, and tens of thousands will start to recruit), two options are also possible. Or they will immediately be thrown as mobilized from temporarily occupied territories to the front line, called as live meat, or minimal-a month or two to prepare. And then to send more or less some, training units to compensate for losses or create any reserves.

That is, if the second approach is implemented, then it should be considered as a serious threat that will appear in a month or two for Ukraine on the front line. Despite the low quality, it will still be a large number of new fighters. That is, Ukraine signals that in the implementation of the second adverse option, we have a month or two in order to move as far as possible and at the time of arrival of these reserves they could be found at the front, which has less length than now.

Concerning the presence of younger commanders who will manage the herd of rams. If coercive mobilization is used, the Russian military enlistment offices have the opportunity to force those officers who were fired not so long ago - months, a few years ago. That is, it is already semi -feet commanders. If they did not want to go voluntarily, now they will be forcibly taken. The problem is partially solved, but again, partly. As for weapons.