The National Bank in Reflections: Why can the discount rate be reduced before the end of the war

At the same time, many representatives of the committee believe that if the inflation rate does not accelerate, then the reduction of the discount rate will occur earlier than it is provided in the January macro forecast. This is evidenced by the results of the discussion of the regulator of the regulator of March 15, 2023, during which the NBU board decided to maintain the level of the discount rate in the amount of 25%.

Thus, 8 of the 11 members of the Monetary Policy Committee believe that the NBU may launch the discount rate reduction process earlier than expected. "A difficult argument can be a further slowdown in inflation," the text on the official portal of the regulator. At the same time, the National Bank's website still has neither specific dates nor the size of possible steps to reduce the discount rate.

It should be noted that in the January macro forerognosis it is said that a 25% discount rate can be saved until the end of the first quarter of 2024. At the same time, two representatives of the committee believe that it is possible to reduce the discount rate this fall. Another participant in the discussion did not rule out that the preconditions for such a decision may be formed even earlier. But most participants stressed that it was necessary to wait for a macro -thread.

The NBU also suggests that the size of the discount rate should be consistent with the plan of mitigation of administrative restrictions in the foreign exchange market developed by the regulator. The tool by which the National Bank of Ukraine influences inflation. The regulator increases the rate to restrain the rise in prices or decreases it to increase economic activity.

Prior to the large -scale invasion of Russian invaders in Ukraine, the discount rate was recorded at the level of 10%, and half a year - 6%. Last June, the NBU raised the rate to 25%. We will remind, on March 14, 2023 Focus reported that the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine will optimize state programs "Available loans 5-7-9%" and "Available financial leasing 5-7-9%". The government, in particular, abolished the possibility of loan and leasing at compensatory rates at 0% per annum.