China is vs. With whom Ukraine has to defeat Russia

"Bilateral relations between Ukraine and the PRC have been in the character of strategic partnership for more than ten years. However, the full -scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine and China's neutral position raised the question of reviewing and restarting Ukraine's policy on the" Chinese "track". Opinion. We.

Considering that China can already be called one of the global players alongside the United States, which is likely to play a key role in determining the future world agenda, it is very difficult to ignore the Celestial Protection. At the same time, China remains difficult for the perception of Ukraine's foreign policy, both due to the lack of intellectual and personnel resources, as well as in the relative passivity of Ukraine in this direction over the past 30 years.

Ukraine is definitely a necessary strategy for China, regardless of public sentiment and individual perception of a particular administration. China's neutrality on the Russian-Ukrainian war is a confirmation of this need. However, this does not mean the choice between "friendship" and "hostile" with China.

In socio-political discourse, the development of a strategy in one direction or another is often mistaken as a state's intention to create some alliance with those countries mentioned in strategies. But strategies are needed for a specific understanding of the environment, the interests of Ukraine in this environment and the formation of goals on the way to achieving their interests. The issue of approaches, principles and practical actions is a separate question.

The main problems of Chinese-Ukrainian cooperation have always been reduced to the following points: China is important for Ukraine for several reasons: first, it is a state that is capable of influencing the world processes, our largest pre-war trade and economic partner, the weight of which in the world system is difficult to ignore.

Secondly, China has a close relations with the Russian Federation and the ability to influence Russian policy (this opportunity is likely to grow in the near future), and this is already directly affected by our strategic interests and national security.

Third, China is the main rival of the United States, and the dynamics of the relationship of these countries will depend on the development of international relations in the near future, and therefore, for many states, positioning itself on the US and China will be one of the key markers that determine the place of this country in a conditional new bipolar world between Washington and Beijing. Of course, the "Russian factor" is a priority at this stage.

Chinese-Russian cooperation should be excited and interested in us, as it depends on the well-being and regional positions of the Russian Federation in the context of our war. Ignoring China because of the false perception of it as a "second Russia" only for the presence of connections with Moscow-a weak and passive position that will give nothing to Ukraine and only marginalize us in the triangle Russia-China-Sea, which we cannot allow.

The key strategic task of Ukraine for the coming decades will be the restraint, counteraction and isolation of Russia as the main threat to us and the region. It will be extremely difficult to implement it without connections with China, and at least a Chinese strategy is required for these purposes. And not just Chinese.

This applies to all non -watery countries that can be potential partners of the Russian Federation and help it to bypass sanctions, to receive technologies, to conduct "parallel import", to buy weapons. Currently, China's position on Ukraine should be taken as neutral. China's neutrality has a number of key features. Beijing at the official level supports Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

This is motivated by the desire to position China as a responsible player in the international arena and to avoid further criticism by other states on sensitive issues, such as the oppression of the Muslim minority of Uighurs in Syrupia and Taiwan's status.

At the same time, the PRC expresses support for the Kremlin, taking into account a number of objective for Beijing reasons: reorientation of Russian trade to Asia, supplying cheap Russian resources to China, which partly provides energy security, ensuring a stable situation on the Russian-Chinese border, maintenance By hyperbolization of friendship with Moscow, which creates in the Russian leadership a misleading impression that China is ready to be an ally of the Russian Federation.

Although it is impossible to admit that the non -interference in internal affairs and authoritarian nature of both regimes, which determines the commonality and similarity of views on the construction of the world order and regulation of key issues of the international agenda, really makes the Russian Federation and the PRC. Let it be asymmetrical on partnerships.

In addition, the Russian-Ukrainian war is considered in Zhunnanhanhai in the context of the American-Chinese geopolitical confrontation. Within the new bipolarity of the Russian Federation, of course, it is a partner of the PRC as an antagonist of the United States.

Because of this, Beijing is interested in maintaining Putin's regime, since in the case of its deconstruction it is possible to come to power of the liberal political elite, which will begin the process of rapprochement with European states and the US. At the same time, China's interest is to maximize the weakening of the regime, which, isolated sanctions, would see in China a single ally and the largest trading partner.

The future strategy of Ukraine on the development of bilateral relations with the PRC should be based on the principles of political realism and based on the strategic interests of the state. To a large extent, the development of political relations between Ukraine and the PRC depends on the state of interaction between the PRC with the Russian Federation and the US.

On the one hand, Ukraine as a regional state, whose strategic partner is the United States, has no significant political interest to Beijing. After the end of the war, regardless of the change in strength and internal situation in the Russian Federation, it is likely that you should not be expected to intensify political relations between Kiev and Beijing. Accordingly, in the political sense, China will not be a priority for Ukraine, and vice versa.

At least it will not become clear what the dynamics of American-Chinese relations will be and what functionality we can knock here. However, maintaining constant dialogue will be required to develop systemic ties, including in the context of our Russian strategy. On the other hand, the PRC is claiming the status of a global state, and for the whole confrontation with the West, cooperation between China, European states and the United States will continue.

In the medium term, in the entire militancy of Josep Borrel and calls for reducing the links with the PRC, this reduction will be slow. If the relations between the PRC and the West do not go into sharp escalation, then it is hardly to expect a sharp decline in the intensity of cooperation between them in the near future.

But the Russian Federation as an international exile will become more politically toxic, so it is expected to reduce the intensity of interaction between China and the Russian Federation. In this context, it is very important for Ukraine to establish contacts with Beijing and work in this direction to speed up the process and not allow Russia to influence China in its fight against us and the West.

In the face of open military aggression by the Russian Federation, which caused tremendous losses to all sectors of the economy of Ukraine, which requires considerable financial resources to protect its own territorial integrity and post -war restoration, China becomes important as an economic, investment partner and source of modernization.

Given the complexity created by sanction policy against the Russian Federation, the implementation of the Chinese Grand Project "One Belt, one way" is complicated in the logistics and transport aspect, which creates the opportunity for Ukraine to become one of the hubs of a project that combines Asia and Europe.

Today, Ukraine needs investment support for all sectors of the economy, providing priority financing of large infrastructure facilities that create new jobs and promote the revival of the economy.

Consequently, awareness of the importance of preserving stable relations with China as one of the key global political, financial and economic centers of the world, the world's largest exporter, the second economy of the world, the state with the largest gold and foreign exchange reserves in the world and significant investment opportunities, as well as awareness of the need for consistent and consistent and consistent and consistent The progressive development of bilateral relations is important.

At the same time, the nature of Ukrainian-Chinese relations can be left "strategic", since China considers such a type of bilateral relations, as implies non-confrontation and peaceful coexistence, non-conflict against a conflict against a third state, a low level of political cooperation, which has symbolic and not of fact.

Therefore, while maintaining stable trade and economic relations, Ukraine does not undertake political support to those issues that China perceives as sensitive and exclusively internal, such as the issue of genocide of the Uygur minority. At the same time, while maintaining the official observance of one China's policy, Ukraine can develop economic relations with Taiwan.

It is important for Ukraine to show China's own foreign policy concept, which should not be completely dependent on the US and the EU, but to take into account the existing geopolitical environment, namely the bipolar geopolitical confrontation between China and the United States. The situation is quite possible when the United States remains the main political partner and China is the main trading and economic partner.