Mikhail Zhirokhov: "Lukashenko can offer Putin mobilization"

His spokesmen from time to time note that Russia and Belarus continue to develop a joint grouping of troops in the Belarusian territory and can use it in Volyn and Polissya operating areas. And it can happen in the last days of November or during December.

In the MOV Intelligence Directorate, such reports, to put it mildly, are inaccurate and provocative so that Ukraine will be transferred to a large part of the troops to the border with Belarus, to weaken the offensive potential in the east and south Attach the territory of Belarus, thereby provoking them to enter the war.

We will remind, on the eve of the full -scale invasion of Russia in Ukraine on February 24 in the territory of Belarus focused tens of thousands of military Russian, which later participated in the offensive in Kyiv and Chernihiv, carried out rocket and aviation strikes.

The week began with the warnings that during a new massed shelling by the Russian Federation a few days can be struck not only from Russian aircraft located in Belarus, but also from "Iskander", "points-in"-that is, that flies to Distance up to 120 km. Is such a development possible? If we talk about rocket strokes at all, the Russians have such an opportunity, and we already know about it - they have a lot of Soviet heritage.

They periodically strikes on critical infrastructure objects with a difference of two to three weeks, thus trying to do everything so that we cannot transfer capacity from one area to another. And such shelling will continue. The situation will depend on the strengthening of our air defense. But even the percentage that arrives, we feel strong enough - light, heat, water disappears in the homes. In order to do as much harm, the Russians use several directions and different types of weapons.

That is, it is about missiles that are launched from Tu-95 aircraft, as well as "Iskanders" and drones. And three purposes require three different air defense systems. The same C-300 can knock the winged rocket, but can do nothing with Iranian drone-Kamikadze Shahd. It is difficult to intercept "Iskander" or "point" in general, if it is not impossible.

Therefore, there is now an echelorated air defense air defense, which will be designed for neighboring, middle and long distances to knock down the maximum number of missiles (started with the maximum number of mobile groups from MSRCs). And the echelorated air defense is formed in order for it to cover all the directions that can be.

In fact, there are not many of them - we know where the Russians launch rockets: bombers are based on Engels in the Saratov region, and rockets fly from the Black Sea, Kursk, Belgorod region, and Belarus. But in Belarus there are only "Iskanders" who cannot cover all the distance. For Kiev, Western Ukraine, Russians use winged X-101 missiles, which are launched from strategic bombers. Is shelling from Belarus "Points-U"? This operative-tactical rocket complex is designed for 120 kilometers.

So recorded in the form. In fact, it flies 90-100 km. And at such a distance, there are no important objects that would be located on the border with Belarus. Even Chernihiv is located 120 km from the border. In addition, the "points-u" of the Russians is not so much-they were previously removed from weapons and stored improperly. If they are fired, only the surroundings of Kharkiv from the Russian territory can.

Explain what is happening in Belarus now, because the General Staff of Ukraine says that Russians are preparing to transfer their units from Belarus to Ukraine? Or maybe such statements are more like an information operation? I only wanted to say that there were all the signs of an information and propaganda operation. Because according to the data I have, at the border with Ukraine, Russians send their mobilized to study at Belarusian landfills.

After the mobilization was announced in the Russian Federation, it turned out that she had a lack of landfills. In the 1990s, most of them were sold to businessmen, and therefore, there are no places for the preparation of so many soldiers. Therefore, in the winter, the Russians are mobilized in Belarus, where all landfills have been functioning since the Soviet times.

There are tankers, artillerymen who, after the course of preparation, return to the territory of the Russian Federation, and from there they already go to the territory of Ukraine from other directions. That is, today it is possible to say that Russia is even more actively using military infrastructure of Belarus. But in any case, the number of people who was transferred to Belarus does not allow to say that the offensive is being prepared.

The mobilized are now located on five to six landfills, in particular, under Gomel and Brest. That is, the troops are scattered, they do not concentrate, as it was in the fall of 2021, in one direction, and the grouping does not be an offensive. You mentioned Brest, but just some experts, including the Belarusian Bypol initiative, say that an offensive on the side is possible to cut logistics from the West.

Is there a chance to realize such an idea if it is? There is no good road from Brest to Ukraine. In Soviet times, the roads were built west, and there were no perpendicular ones. It is very difficult to step on Brest, almost impossible. At least under these weather conditions. I recently returned from the border, and to say that there is dirt and mud, it is not to say anything. Until there are no minus temperatures, at least a few weeks at the minus 5-10 degrees, no movement is impossible.

In addition, everything is blocked from the Ukrainian side, replaced two kilometers from the border. But still, you have probably calculated many possible options for the Russian Federation on the part of Belarus. Do you see such when the army of Belarus still decides to advance? First, the Belarusian army will not go anywhere on its own-without Russian it is not possible.

Until there are shock parts of the Russian Federation-airborne air, Wagner PVC, which could follow the first storm groups, and are already Belarusians. Secondly, I will remember the weather conditions again. Winter is atypical, the forecasters say that it will be so - the roads will not freeze at all. Therefore, the same rake as in February 2022, the Russians will not. They understand that our general staff has already blocked all the opportunities for the offensive.

In Chernihiv region, even from the media reports, it is noticeable that the SBU is working very actively, counterintelligence - in the last two weeks, tens of cases of detention of the agency have been recorded. Such cleaning on our part indicates that the risks of drainage of information are reduced. How does Ukraine try to protect themselves from the possibility of offensive from Belarus? What we saw in the Rivne region is the construction of the wall is more demonstrative work.

All the real works that are carried out on the protection of the state border are secreted. The first line of defense is replaced so that the border guards are afraid to move. On the second, third, tanks are installed, there are opportunities to deploy additional forces. Everything happens taking into account the experience of spring 2022. Earlier, we said that Lukashenko, although he gave Putin's airspace, tried to avoid participating in the ground operation . . . It is difficult to talk about it now.

It is difficult to predict how the situation after the death of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus Vladimir Makya will change (he was called a possible successor to Lukashenko and a person who was not under Russian influence - ed. ). It was a person close enough to Lukashenko. Some knowledgeable Belarusians cannot say what changes are waiting for this death to affect Lukashenko, his further actions. That is, there is a risk that Lukashenko can become Putin's land ally.

This will happen if he realizes that he was heard from the Kremlin, then he will try to keep his own skin and power. What can Lukashenko offer Putin? Mobilization in Belarus. Because most Belarusian military units are personnel, that is, to supplement them with mobilized. He can also go to form new parts, because there are a lot of tanks, artillery and ammunition in Belarus. But it takes time? Mobilization can last for two to three months.

Belarusians can mobilize up to 120 thousand as much as possible. If you expose those who can fight, will be no more than 17-20 thousand. Hidden mobilization or training of Belarusians lead? Yes, but these exercises are quite strange. Total 2-4 days. They collect military personnel, conduct political information, shoot five rounds and dissolve them home. It is not hidden mobilization, but imitation of rapid activity.

Is the accumulation of Russian Air Forces in Belarus, since the Minsk invasion of the invasion of the rocket and aviation strikes from the beginning of the invasion of Minsk? After the Russians were thrown from under St. Petersburg a certain number of aircraft MiG-31, there were no additional forces. They began to fly on training flights - they climbed, made a circle and sat down. At this time, air anxiety was declared throughout Ukraine.

I have a great doubt that these MiG-31 can carry X-47m2 "dagger"-Russian hypersonic aviation missile systems. That is, it seems that it is Mig-31 K redefined. The satellite photos I have seen, they are of very poor quality, are not visible to something similar to the rocket. I think it was indeed training flights - they work at long distances, in combat. One thing is to fly when there are radar stations from Poland or Ukraine. The other is at the landfill.