Will put the event before the choice: experts ISW assessed the danger of occupation of Belarus by the troops of the Russian Federation

The new report of February 21 stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin will most likely achieve considerable success in establishing control over the Republic of Belarus, regardless of the outcome of the war with Ukraine. Analysts said that the possible occupation of Belarus puts the event before choosing: whether to allow Putin to preserve territorial conquests, or to allow Ukraine to decompose the captured territories.

According to experts, in the first case, the Russian Federation will be able to use Belarus and the captured territories of Ukraine to threaten the eastern borders of NATO countries. In the second case, Ukraine will become a strong and reliable partner that can protect the eastern flank of the Alliance from the Russian Federation and occupied Belarus.

"This is the best long -term future is based on the immediate and stable decisive actions of the West to give Ukraine the opportunity to expel Russian troops from its territory," the report said. Analysts suggest that it is extremely unlikely that the West will be able to defeat or respond effectively to the Russian campaign with the absorption of Belarus without the previous defeat of Russian troops in Ukraine.

In the same report, experts noted that some publications were able to obtain a secret 17-page document, which states that the Russian Federation was going to absorb Belarus by 2030, using the concept and treaties on the Union State.

"Although ISW cannot confirm the existence or content of this document, journalists' conclusions about the strategic document and its various directions of the gradual military, political, economic and cultural integration of Belarus with Russia through the Union State are consistent with long -term research and evaluations of analysts," the report reads. Earlier, the US diplomat told how to make Putin finish the war. According to Sullivan, Putin wants to conquer the Ukrainian people.