Response to Putin's strategy. A new wave of mobilization begins in Ukraine de facto

This stage ended in early collapse in early April, when Nikolaev became a fortress in the south, and from Kiev to a large Russian group had to flee. Somewhere in May, the Russians went to the second stage the capture of the entire Lugansk and Donetsk regions. Finally, they stumble in Bakhmut. Considering several lines of strong Ukrainian defense in the Donbass, built since 2015, until the "release of Donbass" was declared by Putin's "referendum".

regions to Russia "did not add military success or motivation to the military. In the end, the Russians escaped from x Erson and have rather uncertain positions in the Zaporozhye region. Therefore, since October 10, the strategy has changed somewhat and consisted in freezing Ukrainian cities, destroying infrastructure and transformation of the Ukrainian territory that they will not be able to conquer.

After the failure of this plan because of the efficiency of the Ukrainian air defense and literally the exploits of energy, this strategy also cracks at the seams. By the way, now, the Russians seem to be planning to focus on the capital region, Kiev and the region to maximize the use of remains of rocket potential. Kyiv is clearly like a bone in the throat, a symbol that needs to be broken.

However, this has been increasing the Ukrainian air defense, and since the beginning of spring, this strategy will be irrelevant. The Russians need a new strategy. Even if they throw all their forces from the Bakhmut mobilized on the line - the coal, the maximum they will achieve, it will burst into an even more powerful line of defense in the Konstantinovka - Slavyansk - Druzhkivka - Kramatorsk. And they understand it.

Conditionally, this is a deaf angle for the Russians, since stretching troops does not guarantee them victories. Probably, hence Putin's recent statements about the readiness for "Dialogue" in "Fulfillment of Requirements" and recognition of all the occupied territories now. Obviously, this will be rejected by the Ukrainian side.

Therefore, the likely option of "stretching" of Ukrainian troops due to a possible new offensive on Kharkiv, to which, according to General Melnik, Russians can use a group of more than 200 thousand mobilized. The motivation is most there, since the shelling of warehouses in Belgorod and Shebekino, as well as fire control over the highway from Belgorod does not allow them to provide their group in Svatov and Lisichansk.

My sources say that they collect a shock group from the Kursk region in the direction of Sumy region. Some are talking about a possible offensive in the Rivne or even Kiev area, but given that a line of defense has finally appeared since February, it seems unlikely if, of course, Lukashenko will continue to avoid the involvement of Belarusian forces doomed here to the role of deaths. An extension of the group in the Zaporozhye region looks much more likely.

Here, constant deliveries from the Crimea and this direction are just dangerous for the Russians, since the Ukrainian breakthrough in the direction of Melitopol threatens them with cutting the land corridor to the Crimea. Therefore, the situation can be the most fierce. It's all about a long war. And its fate will depend directly on the resources. These resources are people and weapons. In Ukraine, de facto begins a new wave of mobilization, it is very needed. There is still more heavy weapon.

And sufficient stocks of shells. This is understood by Western allies, who have actually given light to supply additional Himars, tanks and SAU. In Russia, it is also understood. There, a large part of the economy is transferred to military rails, and the factories operate in the Urals. The actual ally that supplies the weapon is Iran, Moscow is trying to establish cooperation with China, which has still maintained neutrality.

The fate of the war will be determined by the intellectuality of military operations, where with a large margin, General Zaluzhny and the General Staff ahead of Surovikin and Ko. And yet - the motivation of the army. This is what gave us a head start at the beginning of the war, which prompted the event to support Ukraine and is a major component of such a desirable Ukrainian victory. Both the West and Ukraine would like to finish the war by the end of 2023.