"Liberate territories in 16 years": in the US assessed the pace of the Armed Forces, - WP

About it writes Graham Ellison, Professor of Harvard University. Douglas Dillon in his column for The Washington Post. In February 2022, Russian troops seized more than 1500 square meters in the week. kilometers of Ukrainian territory. The second stage of the war was followed: during the Counter -offshore of the Armed Forces managed to reject Russian troops, and hundreds of kilometers were conquered weekly.

By November 2022, the war entered the third phase-and in the last eight months, despite the high losses, none of the parties could not capture about 150 km in one week. In the fourth week of the Ukrainian counter -offensive of the Armed Forces, less than 80 square meters moved. km per week. On both sides of the collision line, trenches are built and mine fields are placed, which complicates the necessary for the successful breakthrough of the ratio of forces 3 to 1. Simple arithmetic.

To date, about 17% of the territory that once belonged to Ukraine remains under the control of the Russian Federation. If the rate of promotion of the Armed Forces is not higher than before, then it will take 16 years to return the occupied territory to Ukraine. US Defense Head Lloyd Austin acknowledged that the Americans had armed and taught the Ukrainian military for this campaign in the hope of "stunning success".

There are several questions about the counter -offensive of Ukraine: why the Armed Forces' actions were not more effective, and no one has yet explained why Ukraine has been waiting for a long time to attack. History reminds that military successes are added to a great deal of random factors, which are as difficult to call the winner of the NBA or the World Cup in advance.

If the unsuccessful rebellion of Prigogine in Russian soldiers will be less motivated to risk their lives, then the Prishaw's rebellion will become the straw that "the camel's back will be broken. " If there is no significant breakthrough during the summer of the Armed Forces, then the event may be more inclined to start a peaceful dialogue with the Russian Federation, agreeing with the proposal of the global south.

If the peace agreement or the actual ceasefire is reached, each party will try to sell it for "victory" to their key voters. According to the expert, the "peaceful" agreement and another pause in a long military conflict does not mean the end of the war, since Putin will not abandon their ambitions of full capture of Ukraine, and Ukrainians will not abandon their demands to return their entire territory.

The author of the publication notes the courage and stability of Zelensky and his Ukrainian colleagues in the confrontation of Russia's attempts to erase Ukraine from the face of the earth, which exceeded any expectations in the West. According to Ellison, if the recovery period is equally successful, then Ukraine can become a new Western Germany or South Korea.