Road to War: As the United States tried to convince Zelensky and allies of the inevitable invasion of the Russian Federation

The first detailed analysis of intelligence on the Kremlin's plans to invade Ukraine was in October 2021. Since then, Baiden's administration has done a great deal of work on the conviction of Zelensky and allies in the inevitability of the attack. The event did not believe the states because of the policy of recent years, and the Ukrainian government took care of the economy. While Putin saw a window of opportunity.

The Washington Post released great material on how the United States was preparing for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, what they did to convince allies and Zelensky about the inevitability of war, and how Moscow accused the West. The focus has prepared the most important of the article. In October, US toplines, together with President Joe Baden, gathered to analyze the intentions of the Russian Federation.

States received satellite images, intelligence, intercepted conversations and a number of other information. All the data said that the Russian Federation is preparing a much larger operation than the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Putin's plans provided for the capture of most Ukraine. They threatened the entire Eastern Flang of NATO and the entire security architecture of post -war Europe. Baiden's reaction was determined - the US or had to restrain Putin or resist him.

However, there was no unity in NATO because of Washington's policy in recent years in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Trump's presidency. A detailed reconnaissance report had to regain the Alliance's confidence in the US. Several conclusions from the intelligence report, which was provided in October 2021: one of the interlocutors of the publication stated that the actions of the Russian Federation were not like rational.

Almost 45 million people lived in Ukraine, the area of ​​the planned occupation exceeded 232,000 square miles. The population of the country is deeply anti -Russian. "Biden pressed on his advisers. They really thought that this time Putin was likely to strike? Yes, they confirmed, it is real," the authors write. Putin will soon be 69 years old, so he realizes that he has little time to consolidate his inheritance as one of the great leaders of the Russian Federation.

There were several important points at once: Baiden's advisers were convinced that Ukraine would be fighting. The United States, the United Kingdom and other NATO members spent years on the preparation and equipment of the Ukrainian military, which was more professional and better organized than before Russia's attack on Crimea and Donbas seven years ago.

Serious concern was caused by President Zelensky, an excommon who held a position against the backdrop of a huge wave of support for the people. He lost his support partially due to a failure in an attempt to make peace with the Russian Federation. Zelensky seemed easy to prey for the ruthless Putin. Mathematics was not in favor of Ukraine. Russia had more troops, tanks, artillery, fighters and rockets.

In previous conflicts, she demonstrated her readiness to conquer her weak opponents, despite the death of civilians. Americans expected that Kyiv would not fall as fast as the Russians expected, but it would be captured. While the states tried to negotiate with the Russian Federation, negotiations with NATO and Ukraine continued. At the meeting of Blinken and Zelensky in Scotland, the Ukrainian President outlined the whole painting of a Russian storm that was coming to Ukraine.

Blinken said it was a difficult conversation. Zelensky has promised to inform his team of information, but Ukraine has already watched Russian "rattling weapons" earlier. Blinken stated that Zelensky was obviously worried about the economic collapse if the country was breaking. Blinken's presentation and Zelensky's skepticism have laid a template that will be repeated both privately and publicly over the next few months. Ukrainians could not afford to give up American intelligence.

But from their point of view, the information was speculative. "We had to find a balance between a realistic risk assessment and the preparation of the country for the worse . . . and support the country's economic and financial work," said Dmytro Kuleba head. In mid -November, Biden shared intelligence with the closest allies - the United Kingdom, France and Germany. Then there was a meeting with NATO.

"Several members have raised the issues and skeptically the idea that President Putin is seriously preparing for the possibility of a large -scale invasion," said Avril Heins, director of the US national intelligence. French and German officials could not understand why Putin would try to invade and occupy a large country from only 80,000-90,000 soldiers who were believed to be focused on the border. Others argued that the Kremlin was officially stated in Moscow.

Only the British and Baltic countries were "completely on board" and believed in a likely invasion. But Paris and Berlin were mentioned by the United States decisive statements about Iraq intelligence. The shadow of this deeply false analysis hung over all the discussions before the invasion.

Although the Americans and their British partners have really shared a considerable amount of information, they hid the untreated interceptions or the nature of human sources, the necessary definitions of Putin's plans. This was especially upset by French and German officials. Macron and Merkel have been dealing with Putin for many years, and it was difficult for them to believe that he was so irrational to start a catastrophic war.

A few weeks after Baiden's meeting in Geneva, they tried to organize a summit between the EU and Russia, but were knocked down by skeptical members of the bloc, who considered in this dangerous concession to the aggressive position of Russia. During the winter, Western countries have repeatedly held a meeting with Putin or Russian representatives. They tried to show the Kremlin that there was an alternative path.

Negotiations were offered, control over the deployment of weapons near the borders of the Russian Federation, Biden stated that Ukraine would not join NATO in the near future. In response, Moscow said that NATO had broken the obligation not to expand to the east. NATO had to stop its plans and cease any activities in the countries that joined the Alliance after 1997, taking into account Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic States.

"All Western allies wanted to report that there was an alternative path that takes into account the dialogue and respect for Russia as a great state. It became increasingly obvious that the Russian Federation was not interested in negotiations," one of the negotiation participants said. The event to the latter tried to find the opportunity for negotiations in parallel to Ukraine in adamant support and assistance.