Withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. What Putin is afraid of

The focus was interested in experts under what conditions Russia can agree to the withdrawal of troops, or how it can be achieved. "Peace is impossible before the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine," the EU Supreme Representative of Josep Borrel recently said.

Then, in a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the German Chancellor of Germany called on the Russian Federation to stop aggression against Ukraine and "completely and unconditionally" withdraw his troops from the Ukrainian territory. In addition, the former US Ambassador Kurt Volker, the US Ambassador Kurt Volker, has recently been publicly announced.

In recent months, such statements of politicians of different levels about the withdrawal of the Russian army from the territory of Ukraine sound from different sides and are becoming more louder, in fact, inclining Putin not to make not a military but political decision. After that, the negotiation process can begin with Ukraine.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, however, as in the Kremlin, says that Russia will never agree to such conditions for starting negotiations on Ukraine. "They are unacceptable.

Our president has repeatedly said that we are ready for negotiations, but these negotiations, of course, should take into account the situation on the earth," - said a few weeks ago the deputy of the Foreign Ministry of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Alexander Hrushko, who was quoted by Russian publications. And the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: the Kremlin is ready for peace talks, but the United States does not recognize "new territories of the Russian Federation".

"For the leaders of the European Union, in particular, Germany and France, it is important to cease fire, negotiation. They think-it is necessary to start, and there is somehow being adjusted. The Ukrainian position is based on the fact that with the aggressor country, a terrorist country cannot Being no negotiations until it is destroyed and leave Ukraine, - said the President of the Center of Globalism "XXI" Mikhail Gonchar Strategy. occupied territories, given the Donbass and Crimea.

But Russia, even when its army is defeated, does not agree to the withdrawal It will be. It is important for Ukraine to continue to strike Russian troops in the territory of Ukraine and on the territory of Russia - as recently on the bases of critical aviation. " The expert is convinced that Russia must be not only a military defeat but also a moral and political. "It is important that destructive processes begin inside the Kremlin.

Only if Russia understands that the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine is the rescue ineffective. Remember, a few weeks ago, after the success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson direction, the US Presidential Advisor began sending messages, they say, Ukraine created a good position for negotiations with Russia, but Russia was not going to talk, even at the moment when it got The defeat is under Kherson, "Gonchar said.

Despite the conversation that Kherson's loss for the Kremlin is a reputational defeat, it was not so crucial for Russia. The Russian Federation has long resigned to the fact that it is ready to lose some separate territories, as in the Kharkiv or Kherson region, but will not depart from its general goal.

Therefore, it is important for the Ukrainian army to destroy the Russian armed forces, and the West, despite all the peacekeeping rhetoric that is so abused, such as French President Emmanuel Macron, to give Ukraine weapons. "At the same time, the West understands that delaying war is a disaster. If the war does not stop quickly, the event will demonstrate its inability to achieve the result.

It is no coincidence that Ukraine has high authority in Europe, its political leadership, and especially military. The world has dispelled, as well as that Ukraine is Faile Stat, non -comparison. But the leaders of the Baltic States, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, the Western European leaders are boldly said. , - supplemented Mikhail Gonchar. There are several options for the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine, says political technologist Oleg Pasternak.

And one of them, as he says, theoretical is radical changes in the Kremlin. "The situation is rapidly resolved in the event of a coup of the current government in Russia. The new Russian leader could nullify the situation, say that the former president has taken the state through his personal authoritarian ambition into an economic crisis, military shame and catastrophe due to his adventures.

Theoretically, such a chance to reject It is possible, although he seems fantastic, " - commented the situation political technologist Oleg Pasternak another option - conspiracy. Some analysts have the idea that there is a certain unspoken agreement that the Russian Federation will gradually pass the territory. At first it was Kherson, then it will be - Energodar, then - the so -called land corridor, the borders of Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions.

After that, Russia will stop in the territory of the LDNR and Crimea gangs. And in the end, some dialogue will begin about those conditional limits that were until February 24. "But Ukraine is tasteful, so this conspiracy version is unlikely In the matter of territorial integrity and return all our territories.

If someone suddenly decides to put a semicolon - to sit at the table of negotiations with the Russian Federation, leaving Donbass and Crimea in a suspended state, then you can lose the opportunity to de -occupy this territory peacefully, ”Pasternak added.

At the same time, the political technologist expressed the opinion that Putin could declare his so -called special operation and even withdraw troops, perhaps from Donetsk and Luhansk regions, but not from the Crimea, they say, this is a sacred topic, the Russians will not forgive him the delivery of the peninsula. . "Donbass he is ready to lose. This is the fact that the opinion of military and bloggers, previously shown on the central channels, is now leveled.

The Kremlin fully controls the media space-so there can be any messaging there, to lower any limit on propaganda channels. The Russians themselves are constantly changing their opinion when looking at sociological surveys: they are for the continuation of the war, then they do not against its end. This suggests that the Russians consider the option of full departure from the territories of the country except Crimea. And this "thought" is modeled on the battlefield, "the expert said.

It must be said that the other day the US Deputy Secretary of US Wendy Sherman in an interview with Sky News in response to the question of" exit Russia from Ukraine "and withdrawing the Russian army from all over the territory Considering the Crimea, she did not specify whether Washington included the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine also from the Crimea. It really depends on the Ukrainians, "she replied. Earlier, focus wrote that Vladimir Putin would go to the escalation to achieve.