The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation "blown" under Bakhmut, but are preparing for a decisive attack in the Luhansk region - ISW

According to analysts, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are taking offensive actions on many areas of the front, trying to distract the attention of the Defense Forces of Ukraine and to create conditions for a decisive counterattack in the Luhansk region. ISW reminds that in recent days Russian troops have been holding limited ground attacks in Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk regions - along the Kamyanske - Mali Shcherbaki line - a small Tokmachka and near the coal, respectively.

Such assaults are carried out in small groups of up to 15 people aimed at dispersing Ukrainian defense lines. "The size and nature of these attacks suggest that they are most likely to be wasteland aimed at distracting and chasing the Armed Forces to individual areas of the front, and not agreed efforts to restore offensive operations for the purpose of fixing in the Central Zaporizhzhya and Western Donetsk directions.

These limited attacks They continue because the pace of Russian operations around Bakhmut under the leadership of the Wagner Group is declining, ”analysts continued in their report. After the invaders managed to establish control of Soledar, attacks on Bakhmut and adjacent settlements stopped, which indicates the next failure of the Armed Forces in the said direction.

ISW notes that Wagner Group failed to fulfill its promise to capture the frontier city, and therefore the command of Russia probably decided to reduce the priority of operations around the settlement. "Russian sources can promote narratives on Russian offensive operations in the central part of Zaporizhzhya and western part of Donetsk region to fill the information space with positive narratives that compensate for miserable failures around Bakhmut.

Russian forces are likely to shift the focus on regular units and depart Wagner groups "may be preparing for decisive operations in the Luhansk region," - added American analysts in the report of January 25. The day earlier, on January 25, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine warned the increased pressure of Russian troops on Bakhmut and Cololar.