The influx of mercenaries: the consequences of war in Ukraine for Africa

The conflict celebrated its gloomy anniversary, and experts diverge in their thoughts on what can happen next. In the end, one of the parties will win or the fighting will turn into a low -intensity conflict. At this point, thousands of former soldiers with combat experience will go "to the open market". These soldiers will face limited employment prospects in Ukraine or Russia, as both armies reduce the number of servicemen who are in full military service.

Wagner Group and other private military companies from South Africa, France and the United Kingdom offer former soldiers the opportunity to feed their families. It will have serious consequences for Africa, which have begun to attract mercenaries in an amount unprecedented since the Cold War. New mercenaries will cause instability, weakening governments and probably increasing the number and scale of rebel movements throughout the continent.

Focus has translated Raphael Pares's article on how the full -scale war against Ukraine affects the African continent. Africa, especially the Sater region, is extremely vulnerable to the interference of mercenaries due to the lack of trust in the government and the existence of a number of local and regional insurgent movements. Historically, the continent has long attracted mercenaries who often violate human rights and seek monetary benefits, not to achieve stable peace and security.

The mercenaries, in particular, Wagner PEC interfered with the internal affairs of the Mali, Central African Republic, Sudan and Libya, in each case exacerbating local conflicts and killing civilians. Africa stability is at risk, and the influx of mercenaries after the war in Ukraine can lead to the fact that even more countries will be on the verge of authoritarianism, civil war and theft of resources. The problem of mercenaries in Africa requires innovative solutions.

Countering misinformation is a key factor in strengthening the trust of civilians. Useful tactics, especially in combination with measures to combat misinformation, may be the coverage and condemnation of violence by mercenaries. Sanctions are also a valuable tool, but they must meet the circumstances and be directed against specific actors.

The governments of African and Western countries should be acting now to eliminate the threat that comes from mercenaries before the situation is significantly deteriorating. The duration and seriousness of the war in Ukraine will determine the volume of the inflow of mercenaries in Africa. If the war in Ukraine lasts for a long time, especially if both parties continue to bear heavy losses, the number of potential recruits for mercenaries in the post -conflict period may be reduced.

The level of conflict losses is astronomical: about 280 thousand soldiers and tens of thousands of those killed among civilians. Despite the fact that the leader of the Wagner PEC Yevhen Prigogine is widowed in prisoners to fill the gaps, the lack of human resources will limit the possibility of mercenaries in the future. If the conflict is faster, regardless of the winner, the former soldiers on both sides will be interested in mercenary.

Otherwise, if the war returns to the low intensity of the "frozen conflict" by 2022, new African units will also appear on the horizon. Wagner PECs and recruits of the organization, given the prisoners, will be interested in continuing military work outside the Russian and Ukrainian states. Many thousands of recently called conscripts may also be interested in this. The soldier on both sides will motivate money or simply acquired skills and desire to fight.

Russian veterans, in particular, can "unite around the flag" - to support the Russian expansionist narrative through images for defeat or thirst for further victories. If Ukrainian or NATO is supported by private military companies, veterans will drain to these organizations for the same reasons. Private military companies will fill a professional and possible ideological break for war veterans in Ukraine.

Probably only a small part of Ukrainian war veterans will decide to join private military companies or enter into new contracts. However, Statistics on the Wagner group indicate that the phenomenon of mercenary has already begun to spread. Prior to the start of the War, Wagner PEC served about 5,000 mercenaries, and today the UK and the US governments have approximately 50,000 mercenaries in the group in Ukraine alone. It is believed that before the war, Russia and Ukraine had 1.

1 million servicemen who are in real military service. If only 20% of Wagner's servicemen in Ukraine are adopted new contracts in Africa, the group will double compared to its pre -war number. Similarly, if after the war, the Wagner group or other private military companies join at least a tiny percentage of regular army or volunteers, the consequences for Africa will be catastrophic.

Whatever happens in Ukraine, the Russian government is likely to have an incentive to expand the use of mercenaries in Africa in an attempt to destabilize the strategic situation of the West and at the same time strengthen the Kremlin's position. Private military companies have the ability to change the result of military conflicts without attracting regular armies.

Wagner PEC has already shown its willingness to resort to strategic decisions such as misinformation campaigns, concession for resource production, initial military training for local, weapons and security. These strategies made it possible to successfully displace French anti -terrorist support from the Mali and Central African Republic, simultaneously securing the Wagner PEC in both countries as a security guarantor.

Due to the considerable influx of war veterans in Ukraine, the Wagner group can expand its activity. The leadership of the Wagner PEC, given Prigogine, benefits from African interventions due to favorable contracts for the extraction of resources in receiving countries and political prestige in Russia. Wagner PEC exchanges its military support for mineral and oil production contracts, receiving resources in Syria, the Central African Republic and Sudan.

For these operations, the group uses different false companies, taking into account Meroe Gold and Lobaye Invest. In addition, the successes of the group in Africa give Prigogine and his associates political levers surrounded by Russian President Vladimir Putin, which is constantly changing: these successes provide key points in relations between the military and Russian state, taking into account the sale of weapons, access to key infrastructure and geopolitical success The event.

The increase in the number of mercenaries will increase the new trend of political instability in Africa. Leaders will resort to more cruelty in their internal security operations. The Wagner PEC interventions in the Mali and Central African Republic have already led to the withdrawal of French troops. Now Burkina-Faso's junta has called on the French armed forces to interrupt their counter-terrorist mission, with some state leaders stated about interested in cooperation with Russia.

If more and more private military companies with many mercenaries enter African markets, many African countries will displace their Western security partners in favor of these mercenaries. In addition, there is a risk of coups, as democratically elected leaders will be perceived as unable to resist jihadist movements. Both results will contribute to instability on the continent, as all sorts of junta and mercenaries cannot eradicate deep problems.

African states also turn to Wagner PEC and other mercenary organizations because these groups are ready to do dirty work. States hire the Wagnets to kill the enemies of the state and those who help them and cooperate. In the Mali and Central African Republic, governments encourage attacks on civilians, many of whom are representatives of the minority-the Fulani Muslim community.

Attacks on civilians only ignite the flames of separatism and religious extremism, undermining confidence in public administration and contributing to regional instability. Finally, Wagner and other private military companies will expand their parasitic relations with new governments throughout Africa. These organizations will be followed by Wagner PEC models, entrenched in countries through long -term resource production projects.

In the Central African Republic, the Wagner PEC has turned a regular rocky golden mine into a well -protected industrial facility. The expert of the Center for Strategic and International Research by Katrina Doxie notes that the group is making plans for the long term and does everything to make the government depend on mercenaries. Such relations will continue to deplete the natural resources of African states, while increasing the role of mercenaries in public policy.

Wagner PVC has identified new mercenaries in Africa, accompanied by a wide publicity, but mercenary as a phenomenon is not new on the continent. After the Cold War, many hired groups consisting of former soldiers from South Africa, Mozambique and other countries appeared. Executive outcomes, formed by the South African officer Eben Barlow in 1989, became famous as a racist but cruelly effective unit, which was disbanded only in 1999.

The pay was mainly $ 3,500 for soldiers and $ 4,000 for officers. Most of them were veterans of post-colonial conflicts, conflicts of apartheid and the Cold War in southern Africa in the 1970s and 1980s, as well as today's members of the Wagner group are veterans of wars in Syria and Ukraine. Regardless of their country of origin, the activity of mercenaries throughout Africa is growing.

A recent study of the Peace and Security Research and Security Group has shown that private military companies have strengthened their control and political impact in Africa. This growth can be associated with the growth of Islamist rebel movements in Africa, which is gaining momentum through the creation of the units of the "Islamic State" all over the continent. It is no accident that Executive Outcomes resumed activities in 2020.

Recently, Osprey Asset Management and Black Hawk are active in South Africa, both of which consist mainly of the former apartheid soldiers aged 55-65, veterans of the latest ordinary common conflicts in Africa. Osprey Asset Management has been reported to have lost a tender on Cabo Delgado contract in Mozambik, inviting $ 15-25 thousand per month per month, while Wagner group is satisfied with a small one: $ 1,800-4 700 for a mercenary.

European, American and Ukrainian war veterans in Ukraine may also be interested in joining different Western hired groups that are already operating in Africa. US companies CACI and Academi are active throughout the continent. The German company ASGAARD ​​is operating in Egypt, Mauritania, Libya and Sudan. The French company Secopex is active in Somalia, the Central African Republic, and previously worked in Libya with Muammar Gaddafi's troops.

The British company Aegis Defense Services worked in 18 African countries, using former Sierra Leone soldiers with American Iraq veterans. Of course, there are smaller regional companies, given the Dyck Advisory Group in Zimbabwe, Paramount Group in South Africa and Burnham Global located in Dubai. A recent story shows that these groups of mercenaries are much more effective in conflicts than resolve them.

In the Central African Republic, the UN mission was unable to defeat the rebels of the Selek and a number of other groups outside the Bangi capital. The Wagner PVC forces also failed, while committing gross violations of human rights against civilians and journalists. In the Sakhal region, rebel movements are related to the religion and dissatisfaction with local ones.

For ten years, several French anti-terrorist programs, Serval and Barkhane operations, have not been able to displace Jamaat Nurrat Ul-Islam Val-Muslimin and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara from Mali and neighboring Sahal countries. Wagner PEC has encountered similar difficulties because its own losses and the number of attacks on civilians are growing. Meanwhile, in Mozambick, the Wagner PEC has been abusive in the Kabo-Delado region.

They were unable to understand local culture, conflict with government troops, and were unprepared for war in the jungle. Subsequent transactions of European mercenaries were unable to displace the units of the "Islamic State". Restoration or continuation of conflict in Somalia, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Libya and many other hot areas can provoke mercenaries.

However, the Small, Central African Republic and Mozambik show that African rebellions and civil conflicts are difficult to resolve even through innovative mercenaries. Instead of resolving conflicts or supporting legitimate government institutions, the Wagner group and other private military companies seek to replenish their treasury while worsening the situation with legality.

Some experts claim that such organizations are delaying conflicts in order to continue to profit from favorable contracts. At the same time, Wagner PEC threatens the legitimacy of the government, committing attacks and killings of civilians, especially ethnic minorities, in the Mali and Central African Republic. Yes, private military companies often become a headache for their employers, threatening long -term government stability.

In order for Africa not to pay for peace in Ukraine, NATO countries must begin with the development of a comprehensive answer to the misinformation strategies used by Wagner PEC. Although new US sanctions against Wagner PEC are a useful first step, the group has many ways to bypass these sanctions, given the use of false companies. In order to prevent this, sanctions should be aimed at governments that cooperate with mercenary groups.

In addition, NATO and other organizations should continue to cover and debunk mercenaries. The US State Department took the initiative, publicly extending the telegram to expand the mining activity of the Wagner PEC in the Central African Republic. Although the media and the investigations that conduct the private sector are of great importance, the support of the government plays a vital role in counteracting misinformation.

In the end, NATO members and African states should be ready to impose sanctions and prohibitions on travel groups based on the West, which also commit human rights violations. Regardless of their origin, mercenaries are not a way out for Africa, as they offer short -term solutions to the problem of instability and undermine effective management. Instead, leaders should demonstrate a long -term dedication to the restoration of the security sector and to promote economic development.

The stability of Africa is at risk. Violence and jihadism observed in the Mali and Central African Republic can spread throughout the continent. The Nanish organizations that have come to the wave of recruits after Ukrainian war will only worsen the problem. Raphael Parens is an independent researcher who lives in the Republic of Congo. He studies African conflicts, Russian military policy and paramilitary groups.