Zero transit. What is threatened

Therefore, the plan of the most economical and efficient use of the existing gas resource is prepared. That is why the average temperature in the homes of Ukrainians this winter can be lower than in the past years. Now such a policy is introduced by most countries of Europe. We live and We work in war conditions, and each of us should understand the attitude to these challenges, "Denis Shmigal said.

On September 9, NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine published a statement about the start of trial with the Russian gas monopolist Gazprom. "National Shareholder" Naftogaz of Ukraine "filed an arbitration for the International Arbitration Court at the International Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Paris (France) on the actions of PJSC" Gazprom "(Russian Federation).

"Gazprom" funds for the service provided for the organization of natural gas transportation by the territory of Ukraine, which were not paid in time and in full, " - said in the statement of Naftogaz.

The case is related to the May stop of the transit through the "Conservation" point point when the VDTSU declared a force majeure of gas reception for transit through the DHW "Sokhranivka", since, according to VSTSU, it is impossible to exercise operational and technological control over the compressor station "Novopsk", which was in the occupation area.

At that time, Ukraine proposed to move the entire volume of transit to the Sudzha entrance point, but Gazprom did not agree with the proposed option. Following the said spring events, Naftogaz made a decision on trial due to non -payment of Gazprom in accordance with the transit contract signed.

"Suggested to move the volume of transit to" Judge "," Gazprom "refused, and this caused the arbitration claim" Naftogaz " - failure to comply Focus Roman Nitzovich, the head of the DIXI GROUP analytical center programs. In September, Gazprom stated that if the Ukrainian company continues to attempt to file a claim for international arbitration, then "Naftogaz" will be imposed sanctions of the Russian Federation, and Gazprom will not be able to pay for gas transportation services.

That is, it is a threat of complete cessation of transit through Ukraine. In response to the threats of the Russians in his report on Facebook the chairman of the board of Naftogaz Yuri Vitrenko said that Gazprom was manipulating information. "Naftogaz referred to force majeure in connection with gas transit through the entrance point" Sokhranivka "because it is controlled provided the necessary services, but Gazprom refused to use them.

Despite the statement of Gazprom, the contract does not give Gazprom the right to justify the failure to fulfill its payment obligations force majeure, which Naftogaz said,-said Yuri Vitrenko. that the arbitration will take place regardless of the involvement in the Russian company. The termination of transit through Ukraine to Europe is needed by Russia itself, the experts surveyed by focus say. This will allow to put pressure on Europe in the midst Critical infrastructure of Ukraine.

"Termination of transit is the risk of escalation of military aggression. It solves their hands in attacks on our GTS, " - says Denis Sakva, Senior Analyst Dragon Capital. Zero transit is a threat that can become a reality, say by focus experts. never had to face similar challenges before. "Bad if the transit stops. VDTSU is said to be ready. But they did not work in this mode.

According to the instructions, the equipment should work, but in fact in the long phase, how everything will work, is unknown. We never worked so much. It was experience for three weeks in January 2009, " - said the Institute of Energy Strategies Yuriy Korolchuk. According to Denis Sakva, the loss of transit will lead to inefficient use of GTS of Ukraine. The border of Europe to the east. It will be necessary to deploy gas flows from the western border to the south and east.

It will be necessary to renew the system, it is a less effective mode, it is an increased consumption of technological gas, " - explained Sakva. However, in his opinion, Ukraine has long been preparing for such a scenario, and in the VDTSU can also be ready for zero transit. Zero transit means the need To renew the whole system, but the highest risks are for a number of settlements that can be disconnected from gas supply "The threat is not zero at all.

The Russians can implement technological provocations, and find "legal" justification of the transit stop, the probability of sanctions of the Russian authorities, and it will be impossible to calculate Gazprom with Naftogaz. In this case, one of the scripts - the transit will not be paid by the seller, but the one who buys. Accordingly, European companies will book our capacity, pay transit, and the gas transfer point will be at the border of Ukraine and Russia.

Another scenario - transit is stopped, that is, zero transit, and GTS mode is changed from west to east in a reverse direction. Then there is a risk to a number of settlements that can be disconnected for some time from gas supply, but in general, the situation will be controlled, " - notes Roman Nitsovich.

He is convinced that Ukrainian GTS already had experience in reverse mode, and critical consequences in The case of stopping transit of Russian gas will be avoided, and those cities and villages that will be isolated from deliveries through a transit stop will organize gas delivery under the new scheme.

Experts say that in the case of transit stops during the heating season, and the likelihood of zero transit in November will -Hevna is very high, it is necessary to switch to the mode of energy savings, in particular gas. Although in gas storage facilities, the volume of natural gas has been accumulated for winter. . First, through the script itself-the figure was laid with a gap on unforeseen circumstances.

The second is the price of the resource, the "Naftogaz" is imposed on the sale of gas at a fixed price for both the population and for companies. Given the special obligations, Naftogaz does not have enough financial resources to buy gas abroad. This is related to the negotiations of the authorities for loans to purchase gas. Recently, there was a report of $ 500 million from the UK for gas purchase. It turns out that the pumping resource is its own production.

It is the gas produced by NAK itself and the gas of private companies, "Roman Nitsovich said. According to experts, the volume of gas in the PSG can reach 14. 5-15 billion cubic meters. This volume may be enough for the heating season. However, only in the absence of other risks, including Prime Minister Denis Schmigal, the aggressor attack on critical infrastructure of Ukraine. In the end of October, half a billion is still pumped, there is enough stocks.

The main risks are in the plane of attacks on infrastructure, "Denis Sakva stressed. In the conditions of stopping transit, Ukrainians will be offered to switch to total resource savings. This will definitely mean total gas savings. No one will say how it will pass. In this mode, the system did not work, and plus the pressure in the system is not accumulated in gas storage facilities of 14. 5 billion cubic meters in conditions where there is no transit, " - says Yuri Korolchuk.

So, in the conditions of zero transit, there is a high probability Resources, mass reduction of the temperature of coolant for homes with a centralized heating system. The disruptions in the supply of natural gas to both TCE enterprises and the population are not excluded, as the most important threat of wartime - infrastructure - can lead to serious damage to the gas transportation system.