The second term Zelensky. Sociologist Paniotto - about the political sympathies of Ukrainians after the war and risks to rating the president

The part of compatriots plans the future of their children and grandchildren in Ukraine, how the political landscape in the country will change after the end of the war and what will be the consequences of the experience experienced by Ukrainians, NV asked Paniotto, who has been exploring and analyzing the moods of Ukrainian society for many years.

- Recently, Ukrainians have survived a wide range of emotions: the stress and fear of the first days of the war have been replaced by euphoria caused by the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces on the approaches to Kiev, and faith in the rapid victory over the army of the Russian Federation. But with the realization that the war can be delayed, many of the compatriots are now in a slightly depressed state.

In your opinion, what other moods and emotions are waiting for Ukrainian society further? - Data from the Kiev International Institute of Sociology do not show that many of the compatriots are now in a confused and depressed state. In this case, they would be ready for some concessions for the end of the war.

Meanwhile, in the study we graduated in July - [poll] the dynamics of readiness for territorial concessions for the early end of the war, and 84% of the respondents chose the answer in any circumstances Ukraine should not abandon any of its territories, even if through this war It will last longer and there will be threats to independence. Since May, this figure has not decreased, and even slightly, although insignificant - 82%was 84%. Only 10%agree to territorial concessions.

The study of our colleagues, the sociological group of rating, showed that Ukrainians have a fairly high level of vitality according to a special index - 3. 8 out of 5. Although the index has decreased a little, but its dynamics in the last two months is very small - from 3. 9 to 3. 8 . The dynamics of the study of emotional states in the period from March 2020 to June 2022 shows that changes in the daily assessment of their own emotional tension are also insignificant.

So it is very small in a confused and depressed state. - In your opinion, will Ukrainians come out of this war? What will be their views on politics, power, life in Ukraine, what will be the positive and negative consequences of their experience? - What Ukrainians will come out of this war will depend largely on when and how the war is over. Of course, it is only about victory, because otherwise the question about the views of Ukrainians will not matter.

But the victory can be different, the losses are different and the time when the victory is achieved is also very important. It is clear: the war consolidated society, significantly accelerated the creation of the Ukrainian political nation, reduced regional and ethnopolitical differences in Ukraine. For example, in June 2021, we asked the following question: “On August 24, 1991, the Ukrainian Parliament proclaimed full independence.

The population of Ukraine expressed its attitude to the act on independence in the referendum, which took place on December 1, 1991. If the referendum was today, how would you vote? ” In total, 70% would vote for independence again, 8% against, and the rest would not participate in the referendum. But a year ago, there was a significant differentiation by regions, 86%in the West would vote in the West, and only 53%in the East, a difference of 33 percentage points.

Now the opinions of representatives of different regions and ethno -lingual groups differ very little. Yes, the percentage of those who think that Ukraine should be an independent state is 92% in the West and 89% in the East, that is, [difference] only 3 percentage points. And also about joining the EU, NATO, attitude towards Russia, etc. It is also clear that Ukrainians have finally lost illusions about the possibility of normal relations with Russia and finally said goodbye to the empire.

Ukraine made its geopolitical choice in 2014, the majority of the population wanted to unite with Europe, not Russia. But by February 2022, about half of the population wanted to have a special relationship with Russia-without visas and customs, and visas and customs with Russia-40%. Perhaps this is because many Ukrainians have relatives in Russia and wanted to leave the potential to see them without obstacles in the form of visas and customs.

Thus, according to our survey in November 2021, 43% of Ukrainians replied that they had close relatives in Russia, another 14% said that there were relatives in Russia, but they do not consider them close. The proportion of respondents who have such relatives increases from 33% in the West to 53% in the East. And now almost 80% would like to have visas and customs with Russia - from 88% in the West to 70% in the East. That is, this percentage has doubled - from 40% to 80%.

I will intensify, I think, and the requirements for social justice, to combat corruption, and the importance and impact of civil society on processes in the country will increase. Regarding negative trends, there may be a new basis for social differentiation and social tension - where a person was during the war and what he did.

In particular, these are new social categories for us - those who were fighting, those who were in Ukraine, those who left Ukraine and those who were in the occupied territory. It is dangerous to "branding" those refugees who are now abroad, because it is very important for Ukraine to return them, and negative attitude to them can be one of the obstacles to returning home.