Mobilization in the Russian Federation. Why was it announced and what to expect from 300,000 new military

In Ukraine, Putin got into rates. It's like a gopnik in an area that is constantly trying to threaten. And it can even hit. But his situation is not due to force, but by fear. It works for the first answer "You want to wave fists - come on" and the first blow in response. In addition, at the time "you want to wave - come on" Gopnik himself falls into the trap. After all, if it does not hit, the design of fear is scattered, it becomes obvious that the quota itself is afraid.

In Ukraine, Kremlin strategists tried to play on fears. First with war, then the scale and occupation of part of the territories. But they have come to the Ukrainian "fight so". And they began to break away. And here it became apparent that the forces of the "ceremonial army", which was so frightened by the world, could not ensure victory. Moreover, if you change nothing, you will miss strokes that will be stronger every time.

And here for the Kremlin top there is a situation similar to the situation with Gopnik. Do not do anything - to lose and the whole design of fear is scattered. In the country, it means loss of influence, the status of even a regional super -state. And, of course, the problems for Putin and his environment-in the history of the Russian Federation, no ruler who recognized a military or military-political defeat did not rule further.

Yes, wars were lost when the Kremlin (or winter) was served as a "victory". In Ukraine, it will not be possible to say about "victory". Moreover, if you do nothing, acting as before, closer to spring may occur, the scale of which will even be difficult to diminish. Against this background, the only one of Putin's surroundings seems to be even more. That is, to throw in quantity, to fill the front with the corpses of their soldiers.

Moreover, summer successes in the Luhansk and Donetsk region were provided with massive disposal of the LDNRI "mobica". But they are over - there is no one else to grab and throw at the front. The "voluntary" mobilization failed. Exit - to recruit inside the Russian Federation. Is it worth expecting a panic of the population? Immediately not. There will be a departure to neighboring countries (Georgia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and further) to go. There the local tourism sphere is cut down by money.

But this is a way for those who can afford. The rest will be taken away. And they will go. The combat capability of such compounds is questionable, however, the recruitment of persons who have VOCs (military accounting specialty), according to the design of the Kremlin generals, will solve the issue of the availability of prepared personnel and the rapid departure of those to the front. Putin needs a demonstration of Victory. As a consequence, a new toss of the front line meat.

The question is different - what will happen if it does not work. The likelihood is so great. And at this stage, Putin may have problems. Not in the form of revolutions - rather, a palace coup, which can be accompanied by a local Russian rebellion, meaningless and merciless. The war will be delayed, the probability of changing the finale is doubtful.