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Shamans, fortune tellers and "intellectuals". Why are we not ready to accept the realities of war

"Even the most authoritative intellectuals today operate the categories of" Crazy Putin "," Imperial Desire "," Will of the Nation " - generally abstractions from the vocabulary of shamans and fortune tellers. In their world of celestial chariots, the Cotlet itself comes on a tray, and computers, like children are found in cabbage. I'm afraid that humanitarian is not ready to meet the world where the cabbage is over and the cutlet has not arrived. " Opinion. We.

We from Ukraine The iPhone consists of 11,000 parts and 10,000 independent steps in the supply chain. If you only have 10,999 details, you have no iPhone. Therefore, each of the 10,000 steps in its production - from the production and preparation of materials in different ends of the world, to their transportation and assembly in the factory in the final product - is important. And it became possible only because the risk of maritime trade and its value were almost zero.

There were… the economic design that we consider the norm is a short -term historical anomaly. In the absence of a global system, built on the guaranteed safety of maritime trading routes, everything works differently: no specialization of the intermediate product, the transfer of supply chains closer to the consumers of the final product, reduction of these chains, optimization of their energy consumption. Simply put, less, and more expensive.

A similar grip of the system means that 2/3 of the planet's population involved in production will lose their existence. And it will affect everything. The agricultural sector is the most sensitive to interruptions. If something happens in the field of finance, farmers have difficulty in buying materials. If something happens in the field of production, they are deprived of the equipment of large field processing. If something happens in industrial goods, they have no fertilizers.

If something happens in energy, they have problems not only with fertilizers, but also with pesticides and herbicides that require oil. Damn with him with an iPhone. Better in his supply chain means that you get your gadget a few months later. But it does not work in the agricultural sector. For farmers a few months of delay at any of the production stages, you will not have a harvest this season.

I will remind that Russia is not only the main exporter of fertilizers on the planet, but also the main exporter of materials required for the production of other fertilizers. Take away from the fertilizer process, and the world will receive 2/3 less food. By the end of this year, because of the war in Ukraine and related interruptions in the supply chains of 400 million to a billion people may encounter a lack of food. Here is what the war and the lack of a global contract.

All we think is the norm, works on the hair and is fragile as an egg shell. The only thing that keeps us in a relative rest is that most of us have no systemic education that converts to understanding what it follows B. That is why even the most authoritative intellectuals operate today the categories of "Crazy Putin", "Imperial Wish "," The will of the nation " - in general, abstractions from the vocabulary of shamans and fortune tellers.