Losses, currency outflow, fixed exchange rate. As banks experienced the first year of the war
When on February 24, residents of Kiev heard the first explosions and learned about the invasion of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to Ukraine, the first reaction of many was the withdrawal of funds from their accounts next to the urgent trip to the gas station at the filling of the full tank. On that day, long queues could be observed both at gas stations and grocery stores. On the same day, the National Bank took a number of steps to prevent crisis in the banking sector.
Such measures, in particular, were the fixation of the exchange rate at the level of UAH 29. 25 per dollar, restrictions on cash withdrawal at the level of 100 thousand UAH per day, the ban on the issuance of cash from customer accounts in foreign currency, a moratorium on the implementation of cross -border currency payments. "The banking system has stood, and this is a merit, in particular, the NBU.
" In particular, "because in the general formula of success, Ukrainians who, to the surprise of banks and regulator, did not have to withdraw funds from financial institutions at the beginning of the war. And also banks themselves. And, of course, our Western partners, without financial assistance, the country would not be able to avoid a very serious financial crisis, " - said Ivan Svimk, Chairman of the Board of Unex Bank.
To keep the banking sector from crisis, from the first day of Russia's war against Ukraine, the National Bank actively participated in taking anti -crisis measures. "Before the war, the banking sector has come very prepared in the management of key risks inherent in banks (credit risk, liquidity risk, capital sufficiency, profitability risk).
All this is due to the fact that banks have come to a crisis with a significant stock of capital and liquidity, operating Sustainable and effective, had plans for adverse events, " - explained the Deputy Chairman of the Board of the Bank" Southern "Maxim Tsymbal.
Sergiy Kolodiy, the chief manager of Macroeconomic Analysis Raiffeisen Bank, says that the NBU's decisions in the first hours of the war were fast and professional, which allowed to immediately offset the currency risk, to slow down the mass withdrawal of capital and to prevent liquidity crisis. "The return in early June to the use of the discount rate as the main monetary policy tool was a very professional step, because the gold and foreign exchange reserves were burned very quickly.
And this was already considered as a strong threat to macro -financial stability," - said Sergei Kolodiy. He emphasized that in 2022, the bancopad in Ukraine did not happen, and from the market they were withdrawn either banks that had serious problems before the war or related to the aggressor country.
According to the Associated CASE expert Eugene Dubogriz, the following NBU decisions were important for supporting banks: among the key decisions of the NBU, which supported the banking sector, was a large -scale program of support of the banking system in the first days of the war - the issuance of refinancing loans. In addition, the NBU's decision to limit the withdrawal of currency abroad. According to the results of 2022, Ukrainian banks received UAH 24. 7 billion. net profit against UAH 77.
4 billion. a year earlier. In fact, the profit of the sector has tripled during the first military year, and there were reasons. "War is the main and only factor. Due to the invasion of business and the population, the financial condition and the ability to serve the previously taken loans have deteriorated. The consequence is the increase in the volume of non -working loans and the increase in payments to credit reserves.
These reserves and" eaten "the profitability of banks In 2022, " - says Eugene Dubogriz. Bank Revenue, billion UAH PrivatBank 30. 25 Ukrsibbank 3. 53 Citibank 2. 82 Universal Bank 2. 4 Raiffeisen Bank 1. 55 Source: NBU Maxim Tsymbal also stressed that the main factor of reduction on loans of legal entities and individuals. "For 2022, the banking system generally formed reserves by UAH 118. 8 billion (versus UAH 3. 4 billion in 2021).
This factor is determining that the operating income of banks in 2022 increased compared to 2021 by 38 , 3%, and operating expenses have increased insignificantly (+3. 9%), "says Maxim Tsymbal. Bank loss, billion UAH meaning Bank -6. 96 Ukreximbank -6. 88 Ukrgasbank -2. 76 ProCredit Bank -1. 65 Idea Bank -0. 65 Source: NBU for 2022 46 banks received profit and 21 bank worked last year from damage. The most profitable was the results of the year state PrivatBank - its net profit reached UAH 30.
25 billion, and the most unprofitable - the bank of the Russian billionaire Mikhail Friedman "Sens Bank" (Exalf Bank Ukraine), which amounted to almost UAH 7 billion. Ivan Svitek noted that the deterioration of the financial indicators of banks is directly related to the significant deterioration of the payment discipline of borrowers.
And this factor will affect the financial results of banks for a long time, since part of NPL (non -working loans - focus) still remains in the "gray zone": much of the debt has been restructured, but some of such loans will also become a problem category, and therefore will require reservation .
Banks lend business, however, it is most often about state-owned preferential programs with a compensation of the loan rate "According to the NBU, as of January 1, 2023, the share of NPL in the banking sector has increased to 38%. This is after a long decrease in 2018-2022, when an indicator declined from 55% to 27%. But it must be acknowledged that the total NPL figure partially demonstrates the scale of the problem.
First, the war is still ongoing, and secondly, part of previously restructured loans will also move to the category of problematic. Although we feel some recovery of the economy, Light lending is being restored, the growth of the NPL share will continue in the near future, "Ivan Svitk said. Given the growth of the portfolio of non -working loans, it was difficult for banks to dare to activate lending in 2022. As a result, many banks have fallen in loans. "Loans for the year decreased by 3.
5% from UAH 1044 billion to UAH 1008 billion, loans to the corporate sector remained unchanged, thanks to the implementation of state programs for lending to" 5-7-9% ", and the loans fell by 13 , 5%, "said Sergei Kolodiy. Eugene Dubogriz says that the main lending program is "5-7-9%", which last year helped to finance the sowing. And all other state programs are still in the development or "testing" stage. Indicator on 01/01/2022 on 01/01/2023 Change, % of loans of legal entities, billion UAH 566.
60 553. 70 -2. 33 loans of individual 942. 70 15. 15 funds of individuals in UAH, billion UAH 456. 96 593. 40 22. 99 funds of individuals in currency, billion dollars* 9. 89 9,54 -3. 6 The programs "Affordable loans 5-7-9%" have concluded more than 18 thousand credit agreements totaling UAH 76. 15 billion. In 2023, banks will lend business, however, it is mainly about lending to state programs, or lending with guarantees of foreign financial institutions, or overdraft for small and medium -sized businesses.
"According to the last bank community survey on the terms of lending, in the 4th quarter of 2022 banks have improved their views on the restoration of business lending. About 46% of respondents expect an increase in business lending in the next 12 months. and medium -sized business. Demand for long -term and currency loans will continue to be reduced, given the probable exchange rate risks, "Maxim Tsymbal said. With loans for the population, everything is also not easy.
However, if in the first months of the war banks were almost massively stopped in massive loans to individuals due to extremely low demand, then from the second half of 2022 the market of loans for the population began to recover. Initially, they issued cache loans, opened limits on credit cards, and then new issues of auto loan and mortgages appeared. "Gradually small steps are restored by lending on accounts (overdraft) and credit cards. There is also a gradual recovery in auto -loan.
Of course, banks use more neat approaches to leveling additional risks in the current conditions," - said Alexander Suprunovich, Director of Cructors. . According to Ivan Svitka, the lending of the population today is already quite active. "Banks and non -banking institutions are concentrated primarily on small loans in cash and card limits, since these products can exist in the conditions of expensive resources.
As for more sophisticated products, such as mortgage, car loaning, only very careful steps will be taken. Car financing, "Ivan Svitk predicts. According to the NBU, in 2022 banks issued 2009 mortgages totaling UAH 1. 96 billion. Compared to 2021, new mortgage lending was reduced 5. 3 times by the number of contracts and 4. 3 times in monetary terms.
In October 2022, the Cabinet launched a program of preferential mortgage lending to Esosel, and experts expect that most new credits in 2023 will be issued within the framework of this program. "A mortgage can gradually recover from government programs. But it is not worth counting on large volumes. Even a few billion mortgage loans this year, it will be the success of the Eosel program," Yevgeny Dubogriz is sure. In 2022, the volume of hryvnia deposits increased, and currency - reduced.
Hryvnia deposits increased - +139 billion UAH or +30% per year. But at the same time, their urgency deteriorated: about 72% of the hryvnia investments of the population are funds on demand and current accounts. At the beginning of last year, it was a little more than 50%, " - said Eugene Dubogriz. Citizens in the hryvnia accounts last year increased by 23%, but the amount of funds in currency in banks fell by 3.
67%according to Alexander Suprunovich, from the beginning Full-scale invasion of Russia into the territory of Ukraine and within 3-4 months banks observed mass withdrawal of funds from current accounts and early termination deposits in national currency that influenced the level of public confidence in banks and the gradual growth of deposit portfolios. We will observe a partial increase in interest rates on deposits in foreign currency to NAP To get a currency portfolio, ”Suprunovich says.
According to Sergei Kolodiy, deposits on deposits may increase this year, but such growth will not be fast. "There are two important factors for this: 1) the liquidity of the banking system will remain high, primarily through external financing of budgetary needs, which will be strong in the following years; 2) reducing the risks of security expected at the end of the year can lead to a decrease in the NBU discount rate", -said Sergey Kolodiy.
It is likely that in 2023 rates for hryvnia deposits of individuals will be within 10-18% per annum, and on deposits in currency-within 0. 01-3. 5% per annum. "Banks will offer up to 18-19% per annum for 12 months. currency for non -cash hryvnia without additional conditions. In addition, banks will be very active in stimulating customers to transfer currency from current accounts to fixed -term deposits, since with the increase of reservation rates such funds bring direct losses to the bank.