Why the mobilization in the Russian Federation will not change the course of war by the end of the year, and Putin's nuclear threats will not interfere with the offensive of the Armed Forces - ISW analysis

Partial mobilization in the Russian Federation will not change the course of war and the ability of Ukraine to continue this year, its impact can show (or not show) itself only next year. And Putin's nuclear threats are not completely straightforward and in his speech were not directly tied to the annexation of the Ukrainian territories. Ukraine and the West should not ignore these factors, but should not exaggerate them.

Such conclusions are voiced by the American Institute for the Study of War on the results of yesterday's statements and decisions of Putin. ISW analysts call not to consider the speech of the dictator as a clear threat that the Russian Federation will apply nuclear weapons against Ukraine if the Armed Forces continue the counter -offensive, liberating the occupied territories after fictitious "referendums" and annexation.

They believe that in their address, despite the obvious threats, Putin did not directly state that the Russian "nuclear umbrella" would cover the annexed territories of Ukraine, as not to associate the topic of annexation with mobilization. "The fact that he mentioned all three topics in one speech clearly involves the connection between them, but he tried to avoid the obviousness of such a connection," the institute said.

Video Commenting by the Kremlin's decision to announce partial mobilization, ISW experts voice the following conclusions: thus, a partial mobilization in the Russian Federation will not change the course of war in the current year, and may have a significant impact on Russia's ability to continue operations in Ukraine, although Russia may have a significant impact on Russia's ability to continue operations in Ukraine B At the current level, the ISW analysts conclude.