Four causes of "truce" from Putin
First, the scale of the fighting, the length of the front line. Secondly, the "unilateral" decision of the Russian Federation is stated. The question is: why it is Putin. And there are at least four reasons. 1. Internal political or propaganda factor successful strikes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Makeevka and Tokmak for the Russian Federation cannot be noticed. The invaders were forced to recognize losses (albeit on a smaller scale).
At the same time, it was not possible to answer something large -scale (missile strokes are not worth excluding the next night, by the way). Propaganda began to spin the image of "martyrs", especially in Makeevka. And if you do not have the opportunity to eliminate the success of the enemy by demonstrating your own "victories", it makes sense to go the way of "demonization". And the "Christmas truce" is right here.
Like, there is a "goodwill" of Russia, "respect" for Christian holidays and "aggressive actions" of the Ukrainian side. For this purpose, they even got a shadow of Comrade Gundyaev (Patriarch Cyril - bishop of the Russian Orthodox Church. - Ed. ), Who suddenly spoke of peace. But even assuming that the Armed Forces will not shoot, "aggressive actions" can always be depicted. Further, propaganda - again to unwind the topic of defenders of good and the fight against evil.
You will not build a global campaign on such a case, but a short -term wave that will absorb tookmak and other failures, as well as prepare the soil for possible mobilization measures, real. 2. The foreign policy factor Russia has been extremely active in the last two months about the possibility of a truce. It is very important for Putin to pause to prepare for a new attempt. Moreover, such a "pause" is unlikely to perceive Ukrainian society with a positive.
And here it is important to demonstrate "contractuality", the desire to go to dialogue. A truce, ceasefire for such options - the perfect algorithm. Unlike any format of peace talks, it does not lead to "political risks" and can be stopped at any convenient moment. On the other hand, a similar step gives a significant argument to the European and American "Putin's lawyers". Like, the Russian Federation can be planted at the negotiation table, we only need to "respect the interests of Russia".
For Ukraine, a trap is created: to respond to "mutual cessation" - to create a risk and play Putin. Moreover, if the Kremlin is needed (and he needs - see item 1), even if the Armed Forces will not shoot, the picture of "screaming" in Russian propaganda will be presented to the viewer. Do not answer - the same "Putin's lawyers" in the EU and the US will talk about "the unwillingness of Kiev to end the war. " One case of weather will not do, but there may be several.
And here the task of Ukrainian diplomacy to neutralize similar schemes of the Kremlin and its partners. 3. The search for options for inclining Ukraine to negotiate on Russian conditions is no wonder the idea of ceasefire was voiced by Putin after talking to Turkish President Recep Erdogan. The latter is actively promoting its intermediary role, because, with any end of the war, its country's position in the region increases.
It is important for Putin to go to a convenient "option of peace"-that is, a ceasefire, in which the Russian Federation continues to control part of the Ukrainian territories captured in 2022, followed by movement towards "Minsk-3". The first attempt is unlikely to be successful, but this is only the first attempt. Which, incidentally, does not reject a new attempt by the Russian offensive.