Ukrainians have finally lost illusions. That will change after the war

Volodymyr Paniotto CEO of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, which will be largely dependent on Ukrainians from this war, when and how the war will end with what Ukrainians will come out of this war greatly will depend largely on when and how the war is over. Of course, it is only about victory, because otherwise the question about the views of Ukrainians will not matter.

But the victory can be different, the losses are different and the time when the victory is achieved is also very important. Video day is clear: the war consolidated society, significantly accelerated the creation of the Ukrainian political nation, reduced regional and ethnopolitical differences in Ukraine. For example, in June 2021, we asked the following question: “On August 24, 1991, the Ukrainian Parliament proclaimed full independence.

The population of Ukraine expressed its attitude to the act on independence in the referendum, which took place on December 1, 1991. If the referendum was today, how would you vote? ” In total, 70% would vote for independence again, 8% against, and the rest would not participate in the referendum. But a year ago, there was a significant differentiation by regions, 86%in the West would vote in the West, and only 53%in the East, a difference of 33 percentage points.

Now the opinions of representatives of different regions and ethno -lingual groups differ very little. Yes, the percentage of those who think that Ukraine should be an independent state is 92% in the West and 89% in the East, that is, the difference of only 3 percentage points. And also about joining the EU, NATO, attitude towards Russia, etc. It is also clear that Ukrainians have finally lost illusions about the possibility of normal relations with Russia and finally said goodbye to the empire.

Ukraine made its geopolitical choice in 2014, the majority of the population wanted to unite with Europe, not Russia. But by February 2022, about half of the population wanted to have a special relationship with Russia-without visas and customs, and visas and customs with Russia-40%. Perhaps this is because many Ukrainians have relatives in Russia and wanted to leave the potential to see them without obstacles in the form of visas and customs.

The war consolidated society, accelerated the creation of the Ukrainian political nation so, according to our poll in November 2021, 43% of Ukrainians replied that they had close relatives in Russia, another 14% answered that there were relatives in Russia, but they do not consider them close. The proportion of respondents who have such relatives increases from 33% in the West to 53% in the East.

And now almost 80% would like to have visas and customs with Russia - from 88% in the West to 70% in the East. That is, this percentage has doubled - from 40% to 80%. I will intensify, I think, and the requirements for social justice, to combat corruption, and the importance and impact of civil society on processes in the country will increase. Regarding negative trends, there may be a new basis for social differentiation and social tension - where a person was during the war and what he did.

In particular, these are new social categories for us - those who were fighting, those who were in Ukraine, those who left Ukraine and those who were in the occupied territory. It is dangerous to "branding" those refugees who are now abroad, because it is very important for Ukraine to return them, and negative attitude to them can be one of the obstacles to returning home. The political landscape will change very much after the war.

By 2019, the main struggle during the elections was between pro -European and pro -Russian political forces. In 2019, for the first time, the main struggle was between two pro-European forces (although one of them represented the other as a hidden pro-Russian), but the pro-Russian forces had a significant impact. In particular, the IPP took second place in the parliamentary elections. But now there is no place in the political landscape, all parties will be pro -European and patriotic.

Perhaps more successful will be parties of military, volunteers, for example, Sergei Pritula party, and those who prove that they made the greatest contribution to victory and capable of restoring Ukraine. I think it is too early to think about it now. With regard to the chances of Zelensky and the servant of the people on monopoly, they are, but it all depends on the success of Ukraine in the war with Russia and on when and how we win.