Dozens of countries and civil war. What will be with Russia after Putin's regime falls
The one, which the day before in the intelligence room was noticed by journalists - on it a black marker surrounded Kursk, Belgorod region of the Russian Federation and Kuban. Like a paper card, the sweet presentation of Budanov divided into parts. "When the head of Ukrainian intelligence Kirill Budanov celebrated his birthday with a holiday cake, on which Russia was cut into several parts, it was, of course, an epic act of trolling.
Foreign Policy, Professor of Political Science at Ratger University (USA) Alexander Motyl. Motyl is a well -known historian and political scientist, a specialist in the USSR, Russia and Ukraine, the author of several dozen works, in particular - "Ways of empires: the decline, collapse and revival of the imperial states. " He says: "The collapse of Russia is the most likely scenario of events.
" According to the expert, since Russia's attempt to seize Kyiv and establish a puppet government failed in the first days of the war, the defeat of the Kremlin in Ukraine seems more likely. Therefore, after almost a year of the war, it affects the almost complete absence of any debate among politicians, analysts and journalists on the consequences of defeat for Russia.
Motille is convinced that this is a dangerous disadvantage of imagination, given the possibility of the collapse and disintegration of Russia. The same scenario also speaks a senior researcher of the Foundation "Jamestown" by Janusz Bugai. Back in the summer of 2022, he published the book "Failed State: Failed State: Guide to Russia's Rupture). Then, in one of the esters of "America", the expert explained: "This war showed two things.
The first: Russia is a state based on the imperial concept, it continues to try to capture the territory and assimilate the population that lives there. This concept of statehood is not even XX- nine and nineteenth century. Second: The war showed the weaknesses of Russia, it is experiencing an existential crisis, or it will become a real federation with a certain level of decentralization, democracy, or it just falls apart.
If Russia does not go for changes, then every time more tension Inside the Russian state and suits, strengthened by the War in Ukraine, will lead to Russia to a crisis that affects its existence. " The theory of the future collapse of Russia is supported by experts of the analytical center of Atlantic Council. "Prepare for the future collapse of Russia," - this is how their report begins for the forecasts for 2023.
21% of 167 analysts surveyed said that the fate of the Failed State is waiting for Russia - an incapable state. The reason for the collapse of the state 40% of respondents are called revolution, civil war or political disintegration - the collapse of Putin's regime.
Bugai reminds that at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, even US military experts magnified the power of the Russian army and warned about it, but after the events in Ukraine they saw that everything was not as expected: "And the course of the invasion of Ukraine, I think, at the In fact, he exposed much deeper problems in Russian society: widespread corruption and deception, concealment of facts, etc.
We witnessed all this in communist times with all their five years - then hid the figures, exaggerated production figures. " Like economic growth figures, sanctions are already felt in Russia. What will happen in Russia on the eve of the collapse and after? Motille suggests that the struggle for power between extremely right nationalists who want to continue hostilities and destroy the existing political hierarchy and authoritarian conservatives interested in the system await Russia.
The third participant will be a revived semi -democratic movement that wants to end the war and reform Russia. No matter who wins, the fight will weaken the regime. And in combination with economic problems will make people go outside, and the regions will require self -government.
"Given the vast expanses of Russia, the long history of restless regions and a large number of non -Russian ethnic groups - the result of centuries of imperial conquests - the only scenario that deserves much more attention is the disappearance of centralized control and the collapse of the federation," the expert says. History knows examples of more or less peaceful breakdown of empires as a result of wars and crises, including economic ones.
For example, Napoleon's empire - it fell after his unsuccessful campaign to Moscow and defeat under Leipzig in 1813. In 1918, the Ottoman, Austro-Hungarian, German and Russian Empires also fell as a result of military defeat. The Soviet Union broke up after the economic upheaval and the lost war in Afghanistan. But its place emerged the Russian Federation - the last European Empire.
And the responsibility for its actual revival is the West, which at one time preferred stability, agreeing with the victory over communism, but not over colonialism. What happened, the world is watching now: the empire tried to revive. So now the event should be not only ready for the possible collapse of Russia, but also to promote decolonization - not to save the dying empire. In 1991, the main argument for Moscow's loyalty from the event is the desire to minimize geopolitical challenges.
Thirty years ago, for many Western leaders, the collapse of the USSR was also unexpected. Moreover, he did not enter the plans of many. To mention at least the visit of the then President of the United States George Bush Sr. to Kiev and his calls to preserve the integrity of the Union. The desire of independence of the White House called "suicidal nationalism. " Globally, the time of the empires has passed, so Russia has no other path, as a breakdown. Another question is how quickly it can happen.
Some experts call the date - by 2033. The process can be delayed, and may be steep: as in 1917 no one could stop the collapse of the Russian Empire, and in 1991-the Soviet Union. What will happen after Russia's collapse? Dozens or more separate parts, only one of which will be called Russia, says Motyl. Among others: Ingushetia, Chechnya and Dagestan, Sakhalin region, Primorsky, Khabarovsk and Kamchatka Krai, Republic of Sakh (Yakutia), Tatarstan and Bashkortostan.
Now no one undertakes to say whether it will be ten or fifteen separate regions. Many will depend on various factors: economic, national, cultural, etc. Some of the "young countries" will be democratic, others will be authoritarian. In problem regions, such as the Caucasus, wars are possible through borders and economic assets. And if we recall that a large and armed army has already been formed in Russia, the prospects of war are becoming more real.
Do they think about it now in the Kremlin? Definitely. In his New Year's address 2023, Vladimir Putin said that the survival of Russia as an independent state is now under threat. There were no such words before. What remains unchanged is that today Western politicians are still not ready for the collapse of Russia. The reason is related to the collapse of the state instability and unknown. And yet - the danger of the use of a nuclear arsenal.
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger argued that "the collapse of Russia or the destruction of its ability to pursue a strategic policy can transform its territory, which covers 11 time zones into a contested vacuum. " "All these dangers will be exacerbated by the presence of thousands of units of nuclear weapons," he wrote before.
According to Kissinger, the best option is not to bring Russia to "powerlessness as a result of war", but instead include it in the "peace process", the details and the possibility of which remain vague. Motyl calls such a scenario, to put it mildly, not the best.
He says that the best way out for the event at this stage is not to be afraid, but to prepare for the collapse of the empire - to help Ukraine with weapons and financially, to promote Belarus in the aspirations of freedom and to support others close to the country, such as Kazakhstan, creating the so -called buffer zone. "Budanova cake is an easy form of submission of complex analytical data. But Western analysts have predicted it a long time ago.
Part of the world is indeed afraid of Russia's collapse. But in fact, the collapse of Russia has nothing wrong for the world. Except Putin and Russian opposition that seeks on our hump enter the presidential history, go to the Kremlin to control and receive billions every year, and not to return Crimea, - says political scientist Mykola Davidyuk. - This is what all these Navali, Chichvarkin, Sobchaki think. that Russia should stand, and Putin to go. They, like Putin, are scared.
Everyone was not expected to get an interesting drama. Putin attacked us, said that he would eat in three days - nothing happened. Then when we They went on attack in the Kiev region, and then in Kharkiv, Kherson region, he began to frighten nuclear weapons, and now his people threaten collapse, that is, from threats with nuclear weapons to what they would fall apart, it has passed for a very short time. Weakness, powerlessness to do something.
The only thing they are capable of is to threaten mythical fakes. "But after the attack on Ukraine and the defeat in the war, the dismantling of the regime is real. The Russians scare that they now have 5,000 missiles, a warhead. So Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan had 10 thousand. And for them the initiative of senators Sam Nanna and Richard Lugar was created.
Two American parliamentarians came to demilitarize - to remove nuclear weapons in these three countries, they all divided, prepared a Budapest Memorandum, signed and took these 10,000 warheads, why could it be in the Soviet Union and not? Why will such a commission not be able to pick up 5 thousand in Russia? "-continues Davidyuk. Currently, Ukraine takes a strong position. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine seeks to reach the borders of 1991 and will not go to any compromises.
Our Western partners agree: The last word on the liberation of territories is by Ukraine. Ukraine will not be forced to accept the occupation of Donetsk or Crimea. "The reality changes, - the expert is sure. - We are told: we need to lower the weapon, because the world economy is wearing. Until the world economy has asked the way ours - we will not understand them. ”That is, no one will make Ukraine give up, refuse the desire to liberate the territory.
This is against the principles of a democratic event. Because if they go for it, then dictatorships and autocracy headed by These are Jinping and Putin. Western partners will have a temporary benefit, but the global game is lost. - At some point, all empires fall apart. The Dutch does not have an empire, the French - no, the Germans - no, the British - no. How does Russia scare? In Moscow, they say, "The nuclear state cannot lose.
" How can it! States are a nuclear state that lost in Vietnam, the Soviet Union is a nuclear state that has lost in Afghanistan. And one more message: "The nuclear state cannot fall apart. " Can also. . "It says that the Russians were sold to Western special services. Sobiangin, Mishustin, Medvedev (Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobanin-Ed. ) - They just see that Putin is not so weak.
For the event, Medvedev, who traveled to the US, looks like a real candidate. He behaves primitively and stupidly so that Putin is not cleaned. He is always somewhere around, but does not create competition. And this is about systematic politicians. And there are non -systemic. See how Maxim Galkin jumps out of his pants, wants to repeat the feat of Zelensky in the election. Galkin clearly plays a election campaign.