Local offensive on the coal to the Russians won't help - isw

According to military researchers, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation try to form a new axis of offensive in the Donetsk region. But there is a considerable distance between individual offensives, they are not operating with each other - and are unlikely to help improve the position of Russians in eastern Ukraine. Localized offensive in the coal area is unlikely to help Russian troops improve their position anywhere in eastern Ukraine.

About it reports "Institute of War Research" in its summary on January 31. Military researchers refer to the estimates of the British Defense Ministry, which reported that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation plan to attack near Pavlovka (36 km southwest of Donetsk) and at the same time in the area of ​​coal. The goal is to form a new axis of the Russian offensive in the Donetsk region.

Instead, this is unlikely to help strengthen other offensive efforts of the Russians in eastern Ukraine, since these individual offenses are not operating. Analysts indicate the distance separating the units of Russian troops that make such local attempts on the offensive.

According to previous ISW estimates, the localized campaigns of Russians in the carbon area are part of the joint efforts aimed at scattering Ukrainian troops along the front line and creating favorable conditions for a large -scale offensive of the Armed Forces in the Luhansk region. In order to achieve the operational connection between the offensive actions under the coal and Bakhmut, the Russian forces will need to activate a large -scale offensive on the part of the occupied Donetsk.

But, according to analysts, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation do not prepare large operations in the mentioned area. Russian troops are likely to prefer sabotage and intelligence, instead of trying to achieve territorial advantage in the southern part of Ukraine.

Analysts give the words of the head of the united press center of the Defense Forces of the Tavriysky direction of Yevgeny Erin that the Russian forces have increased sabotage and intelligence activity in the Dnieper area of ​​the Kherson region, as well as in the Zaporozhye region. On January 31, the Armed Forces General Staff announced the destruction of at least five sabotage and intelligence boats in the Dnieper area.

It was also reported that for the fifth day in a row, Russian troops did not make ground attacks in the Zaporozhye region. The ISW considers the misinformation of the representative of the occupation administration of Vladimir Rogov that the occurrence of Russian troops is conducted in the Zaporozhye region. Forces of Ukraine held a raid on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnieper on January 13. On geolocid pictures two boats on the Dnieper, southwest of Kherson.

Russian sources reported that the Armed Forces fighters landed on the shore and installed positions in the residential area near the shore before Russian artillery forced the Ukrainians to leave the area. One of the Russian military bloggers claims that the Ukrainian forces were exploring Russian positions, but did not try to install a bridgehead on the shore. Such outlays of the Armed Forces indicate that the Russian forces do not completely control the left bank of the river.

The Russian occupation administration is trying to restore the supply between Krasnodar region and Crimea. On January 31, Deputy Head of the Russian Federation Marat Husnullin reported that the fourth and last flight of the Crimean Bridge highway had been restored and restored a few days earlier. The movement of the bridge should open in March. Recall that the fighting in the Bakhmut area continue because the "Wagner" came to the "Wagner".