The capture of Sofia of Kiev and the Khreshchatyk parade: how Putin sees the end of the war

"The parade of Russian troops on Khreshchatyk was to become a symbol of military dominance. But much more important for Putin was the solemn liturgy in Sofia of Kiev. It was in Sofia, not in Lavra. Status is a sacred leak and a symbol of power. " Opinion. There was a lot of news yesterday (no less), but the most important internal news in the field of defense, in my opinion, was "an approach to the bank-departure-fixation on the Internet" ROC leadership in Ukraine. The right thing is next.

I am sure that I know how Putin saw the end of the war. A symbolic climax is important for the invader. "Wagon Marshal Fosha". For Putin, this "wagon" had to include two mandatory elements. Less important is a parade of Russian troops on Khreshchatyk. As a symbol of military dominance. The second, more important is the solemn liturgy in Sofia of Kiev. It is in Sofia, not in the laurel. Sofia is perhaps the only object that has no analogues in Russia. At the same time a sacred leak and a symbol of power.

Old Ladoga and Novgorod do not come very much. Greatness goes from Kiev. Putin could show: "Here is my personal plowman. Here's the family of the legendary prince of Kiev on the mural. And from him a straight line goes to me. The millennial story rests directly in me, I am a crown. " I think a suicide throw was organized for this purpose. Physical monitoring of the city was needed. It was not enough to change power. But everything did not happen.

The Russian army received its "parade" on Khreshchatyk in August 2022. All the world media wrote about it against the background of total silence in the Russian Federation. This is an indicator how much the Kremlin was at this moment. Now the focus of attention is the second part of the symbolic collapse. And here there are interesting nuances. The nuance is the first. The ROC in Ukraine is a tool that was to provide the second part of the "Foster".

Many thousands of Ukrainian citizens are still loyal to this denomination. It is non -non -non -non -national, but quite numerous. For interest, watch a video of recent celebrations in honor of the Reverend Kiev-Pechersk. This denomination has support points not only in the East but also in the West. In the western regions, people who escaped from war were forced to move. The impact of this tool is gradually reduced.

One reason: this denomination in its mass (there are exceptions) is not with a belligerent part of their people, not with their army. People see it. I will express the hypothesis that the transition of a large part of the faithful from the ROCVU will take place towards Protestant denominations. Because they have very effective social support and community interaction programs. How effective this mechanism could be twice proven on the example of Chernovetsky in the Orthodox capital - Kiev.

Now support is very important for people, especially refugees. Not only the flock (electorate) but also sponsors will be transition. That is, there are prerequisites that after the war in Ukraine it is not just a sharply weakened influence of the Kremlin department on working with believers. Ukraine as a country will be Christian, but with a growing Protestant vector. This field will be the main competition. Now the Patriarch of the ROC, Mr. Gundyaev performs extremely schizophrenic actions.

On the one hand, he fiercely denies the connection of the ROCVU (UOC -MP) with Moscow. Emphasizes the "independence" of the denomination. But at the same time, no less fiercely writes an appeal to international instances, demanding to influence the Ukrainian authorities, so that it leaves the ROCCVA the opportunity to do the same as before - to influence people in the interests of Moscow. When asked "What is your business if the ROCVU is independent?" - Intense silence. The nuance of the second.

In 2014-2016, after the capture of Crimea, someone in Moscow had an ingenious idea to shift accents. Rospropaganda began to demonstrate (in films, official actions, etc. ) Chersonese and the chronicle fact of baptism of Vladimir. Like, this is the main source, and the events in Kiev are small minor facts in the history of Christianity in Russia. But this story did not come up. It was not possible to replace Kiev and its importance in the design of large -scale.

"Plan A" remains - to ensure physical control and "anointing" in the real capital. Putin was probably not refused to defable Sofia with his presence. But the chances of it are diminishing. In addition to military efforts, the Kremlin must do something to maintain the remains of church influence and the ability to fight for its return to its previous volume. The nuance of the third.

The following steps on the part of the Russians look logical: a) to turn the ROCCu into a "martyr church" to mobilize supporters and shake Ukraine from the inside. The insidious Ukrainian authorities interfere with this plan, because there is no provocation and does not begin repression. Vice versa. Everything goes within the law. Therefore, the Russian Federation will probably try to organize provocation with victims. Perhaps on Easter. In one of the three laurels. B) restart the ROCVU leadership.

Metropolitan Onufri remains in the position of a spiritual leader and does not demonstrate the desired Kremlin with perseverance for destabilization. He is unlikely to see himself as a small militant sect. Therefore, the internal struggle can be exacerbated. The overthrow of the abbot is a risk because Metropolitan Onufri has its authority in the church.