Russian agent: Why Hungarian Prime Minister Orban supports Putin's line and interferes with Ukraine
"Tens of thousands of children remained orphans, many hundreds of thousands of houses are destroyed, more than ten million people are forced to leave their homeland. Enough war!" - It is in the description of him. The video sounds to the negotiations, illustrating the words with a picture of the table on which the flags of the United States, the Russian Federation and Ukraine are standing, and demonstrating a map of Ukraine without occupied Crimea.
"When similar situations occur, the Hungarian government is used to leaving them without explanations. Now we see that the video on the site has changed - Crimea on the map appeared, but without comments," says focus expert of the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism" Mikhail Drapak. - There is an opinion in the Hungarian expert environment. The analyst explains that in Hungary, in fact, they can assume: part of Ukraine - controversial territories.
"The Hungarian government is talking about the war in Ukraine what is saying. Many people in the country begin to think about it pragmatic categories: war is ongoing, there is a struggle for the territory," he continues. "So there is no problem to show some of them as controversial, or as part another state. I do not justify the Hungarians, but try to explain why it could be perceived as a norm who prepared the roller.
That is, this situation could be a consequence of an incorrectly developed narrative of the Hungarian government. " And the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban says, in fact, there are many. On the eve of the incident with the card, he tried to intimidate Ukraine with severe losses during a counter -offensive and urged negotiations with Moscow. Orban also complained that it is difficult for him to be the only prime minister in the EU, who "advocates for peace" and is now unpopular.
"The statements about the peace inherent in Orban," explains Michael Drapak. "After the victory in the elections last year, Orban said that peace should be above all, the parties should be planted at the negotiation table without specifying what conditions it is necessary to follow the day before. that the Ukrainian counter -offensive will bring even more victims is part of the great narrative. " And he is about making concessions to Moscow.
And Hungary, they say, is ready to become a mediator in negotiations. This was said by the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Economic Relations of Hungary Peter Siarto: A few weeks ago in the sidelines of the Second Economic Forum "European Union - Central Asia" he said that Hungary was ready to provide a site for negotiations of Moscow and Kiev.
This proposal, according to him, was provided by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov and the head of the Presidential Office of Ukraine Andriy Yermak immediately after the invasion. "The proposal is still valid," Siarto added. Earlier there was information that Orban had spoken with Putin by phone and ready to make a mediator between the parties. "He is already in the queue of such" peacekeepers "," Drapak continues.
"Hungarian officials of the highest level are very fond of throwing some statements that can be understood differently, it is their style I am saying and what I do. He often does not follow his words or intentionally says to check the reaction of the audience. I do not see any peacekeeping plan now. Despite the loud statements of Orban Hungary is integrated into the Western political and security system.
On similar actions as such actions as For example, to be a platform for negotiations, Hungary cannot go on its own. " But such statements are playing to the Russian authorities, with which Orban, despite anything, continues to maintain close contacts. "The Hungarian side can explain differently why it maintains contacts with the Russian Federation, but they are exactly regular, the Russians introduce them to their prospect," the expert states.
Hungarian foreign policy of all years during Orban's times in power is focused on benefits, interests, not on values and rules, analysts say. According to them, the Hungarians are treated in Ukraine as a competition of great forces. A significant number of Hungarians, in particular Orban's electorate, empathizes in Ukraine because of Russia's aggression, but recognize that powerless, because "the world is so arranged - we need to put up, offer peacekeeping initiatives.
" At the same time, analysts doubt that Orban can act solely with the instruction or advice of Russia. "I do not think that Orban will receive direct instructions from the Kremlin. But he really depends on the Russian Federation. Russia also covers the personal needs of Orban. Because of this he was in isolation," says the president of the Center of European and Transatlantic Studies in a comment .
- And such an experienced politician as Orban, having been in some isolation for a long time, can take some steps spontaneously, make loud statements to attract attention. But the political weight of Hungary is minimal. It is not paying attention to it. " An example of such high-profile statements of the Hungarians is the announced visit of Prime Minister Viktor Orban to Ukraine several times.
From the beginning of a full -scale invasion, he has never been in Ukraine in Ukraine, while most world leaders have visited Kiev. According to Siarto, the visit was preparing - Orbana invited Zelensky personally during a meeting with him in February 2023 in Brussels. However, he noted that such a visit will be "after all the prerequisites". "Orban takes only those steps that he or his regime is politically advantageous," Drapak explains. "It is not a question that he will look inappropriate.
For example, he went to Germany last year where he was humiliated. The premiere is just to be covered. Orban had to withstand it because his country is dependent on German investment. As for Ukraine, when it would feel the opportunity to get political capital from a visit, he will do it. But not time.
" Ukraine and Hungary have been in a state of confrontation since 2017, when the Verkhovna Rada has adopted a law on education, noting it about the obligation to receive education in the state language. He was regarded in Budapest as an offensive on the rights of the Hungarian national minorities in Transcarpathia and urged to change, starting to block all Ukrainian European and Euro -Atlantic aspirations.
After the election of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky in Hungary, there was a hope that the new head of state would be more compliant. However, this did not happen. And on the contrary, Ukraine has banned the entry of Hungarian politicians several times for various reasons, and Hungary has increasingly repeated the rhetoric of Moscow, agreeing on the supply of gas bypassing Ukraine. However, Ukraine still tried to make every effort to establish relations with Hungary.
Even after the invasion, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmitry Kuleba said: "Until February 24, we had a very close relationship and I really tried to restart Ukrainian-Hungarian relations and Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Siarto really demonstrated his readiness and in some things we were moving forward.
" In the early days of a full -scale invasion, Prime Minister Viktor Orban condemned Russia's attack on Ukraine, but immediately announced that Hungary would not provide any military assistance to Ukraine and would not support energy sanctions against Russia.
"Hungary should not be involved in this military conflict, because for us the number one priority is the safety which would jeopardize the supply of energy and gas in Hungary, as well as threatened the reduction of families for utilities, "he explained. The Hungarian government also did not allow air or land to transfer from the Hungarian territory to Ukraine of military equipment and lethal weapons, but only a transit from one country to NATO to another.
As an exception, Budapest promised to provide humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and opened borders for refugees. But in the future, Hungary returned to the relaying of Russian comments and doubts. For example, Orban expressed doubts in the early April 2022 about the murder of hundreds of civilians during the occupation of Bucha near Kiev.
Initially, President Vladimir Zelensky noted that "one of the EU leaders demanded evidence that the murder in Bucha was not a staging," later Viceremier of Poland Yaroslav Kaczynski clarified: In Bucha, I would advise him to turn to the optometrist. " In the end, it was only on April 9 that Orbana spokesman said the Hungarian Prime Minister was supporting the investigation of Bucha's events and condemns the murder of civilians.
During the last year's elections, Hungary Orban used the topic of Ukraine. He actively stated that his opponents wanted to involve Hungary in the war, and Orban himself promised that Hungary would not become a participant in this war. Another wave of dissatisfaction in Budapest arose after the statement of the NSDC Secretary Alexei Danilov that Hungary knew about the preparation of the attack on Ukraine. "She was warned by Putin in advance that there would be attacks on our country . . .
She for some reason believed that she would be able to pick up her part of the territory. It would never be it," he said. State Secretary of Hungary for International Communications and Relations Zoltan Kovach called it a lie. Subsequently, Siarto, referring to the publication of The Washington Post, stated that Zelensky wanted to blow up the Druzhba Pipeline, which threatened the national interests of Hungary.
In the future, the Hungarian authorities hinted and directly said that the volume of military assistance to Ukraine should be reduced, because it does not contribute to the stopping of the conflict, and the anti -Russian sanctions should be removed because they are not in the interests of the EU. And such statements can be easily explained. Orban tries to maintain cooperation with the Russian Federation, because Hungary is financially dependent on Russia.
First of all, from the cheap oil and gas, which Orban has an agreement with Putin. In addition, on atomic energy cooperation. For example, it has a nuclear power plant built by Russia. It produces half of all electricity in Hungary, and it receives atomic fuel from Russia. It is planned to be expanded with Rosatom. This was stated by Foreign Minister Peter Siarto after meeting with the CEO of Rosatom Corporation Alexei Likhachev in Budapest.
"Russian narratives are the consequence of both the specific foreign policy of Hungary and constant contacts from the Russian Federation. The Hungarians see normal civilized partners in the Russians. And this is a problem. Hungary has driven itself into a situation where it should maintain these contacts with Moscow. In order to reduce Russia's dependence in energy terms, " - explains the expert of the Foreign Policy Council" Ukrainian Prism "Mikhail Drapak.
However, the European Union, part of which is Hungary, does not require too much that Budapest supports the overall policy of removal from the Russian Federation. Because he moves in this direction slowly enough. Of course, Hungary, like the EU, could get rid of addiction. For example, in the case of buying Russian oil, buying it through the Balkan countries or receiving from their ports. In the case of gas-to think about what to do with a 10-year contract with Gazprom.
Of course, Hungary's statements for Ukraine are quite painful. Everyone should be responded in a timely and public plane. "Until it has come to any action, they do not pose any danger," Drappak convinces. "The main thing is that these ideas about peace and freezing conflict, the unconditional ceasefire of fire is not found in the European Union. The Hungarian government also makes similar statements, considering Political landscape - elections to the European Parliament should take place in a year.
So, perhaps, Orban is actively forming an alliance with different populists within Europe, so it wants to felt some electorate, or protect itself on the eve of this election. " Currently, experts are unanimous that it is important to separate Orban's public populist statements from political steps. Hungary's foreign policy is pragmatic, so Ukraine's policy on Hungary should be as follows. Ukraine can and should cooperate in areas where it is profitable and not to provoke them.
And, of course, it is necessary to control Transcarpathia, where from time to time there are disputes on the Hungarian theme. Some statements of Hungarian government officials may be dangerous for Ukrainian citizens due to radicalization of individual groups that cannot be allowed, especially during the war.